Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Instead of perhaps getting rid of 2yo earnings, I'd toss sprint earnings.

By sprint, I mean anything under a mile. The number of turns would be irrelevant.

Not that any of this really matters.

I'd start the clock at the Breeders Cup and toss anything less than 8 furlongs and Turf but I don't see tossing synthetic.

[justindew]

Considering Mine That Bird would have failed to make the field if either juvenile or synthetic earning didn't count, I would say there is a 0% chance any of that happens.

[slotdirt]

I would pay large sums of money to not have to remember that Mine that Bird won the 2009 Derby, so if he was somehow not entered in that field, I'd have no problem with it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Mine That Bird would have failed to make the field if either juvenile or synthetic earning didn't count, I would say there is a 0% chance any of that happens.

i'm pretty sure there would have still been a derby winner. and i don't think he would aid anyone's argument.
they need to limit the field size to 14 as well. why they ever allowed more than that i don't know.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Danzig

they need to limit the field size to 14 as well. why they ever allowed more than that i don't know.

Wasn't this talked about a lot after Eight Belles broke down? It doesn't seem to be discussed much lately. When I see 20 horses break from the gate, I feel like it's a disaster waiting to happen. Not to mention that with a 20 horse field the trip a horse gets may be significantly more important than his actual ability.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Mine That Bird would have failed to make the field if either juvenile or synthetic earning didn't count, I would say there is a 0% chance any of that happens.

The minute that any logic for the Kentucky Derby is revised because it would have elminated Mine That Bird...I'm done.

[randallscott35]

3 yr old graded earnings only. A what have you done for me lately field is what it should be.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

The minute that any logic for the Kentucky Derby is revised because it would have elminated Mine That Bird...I'm done.

Why? Because horses aren't allowed to get good for one 5 week period in their career? Mine That Bird won the Derby fair and square. And he damn near won the Preakness and the Belmont. He unquestionably accomplished the most throughout the entire Triple Crown that year. And it seems the majority of the posters here would have been fine with a system that excluded him, seemingly so that horses like Twinspired can earn a berth. You people are out of your minds.

Or maybe they could just restrict the field to the horses that brought the highest price at auction. And save 5 spots for the homebreds whose sires have the highest stud fees.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

Why? Because horses aren't allowed to get good for one 5 week period in their career? Mine That Bird won the Derby fair and square. And he damn near won the Preakness and the Belmont. He unquestionably accomplished the most throughout the entire Triple Crown that year. And it seems the majority of the posters here would have been fine with a system that excluded him, seemingly so that horses like Twinspired can earn a berth. You people are out of your minds.

Or maybe they could just restrict the field to the horses that brought the highest price at auction. And save 5 spots for the homebreds whose sires have the highest stud fees.

The fact that Mine That Bird had an incredible Triple Crown run, which he did, doesn't change the fact that he had HORRIBLE credentials for the Derby. Only in a fluky year where the earnings basement was so low was he even able to get into the field.

Basing Mine That Bird being deserving of entry into the Derby on his 2YO form in Canada is idiotic. Are you seriously comparing him to a horse like Twinspired who has hit the board in two prep races (albeit on synthetics)? To steal a line from someone who lurks here, Twinspired is Alydar at this point compared to Mine That Bird.

I'm not even sure why MTB came up in this discussion. His Derby candidacy and the race that he ran to win it should forever be considered the exception. Am I glad he got into the Derby that year? Sure, but that three race stretch he put together was nothing short of shocking.

[PatCummings]

If we are talking about things to change in the Derby camp, how about limiting the field to 14.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

If we are talking about things to change in the Derby camp, how about limiting the field to 14.

from strictly a gambler's point of view - heck no... the more, the better.... plus that would still allow for synth winners to get in

[RolloTomasi]

The thing that justindew takes for granted is that Mine That Bird would have run the same schedule at 2 had a rule been in place excluding synthetic earnings for entry into the Kentucky Derby. All his races at 2 were on synthetics. If any of his connections were "thinking Derby", would they have run him on dirt at some point? Possibly. Definitely if we're talking about horses in a similar boat like Lookin At Lucky and Pioneerof The Nile. What an added bonus that would be, competitive 2yo stakes. No more 5-horse Remsens, no more Champagnes or Hopefuls where the loftiest credential of any of the starters is a maiden special weight victory.

Furthermore, why is January 1st some sort of arbitrary cutoff prior to which earnings shouldn't count? The basic reason why quality horses are raced at 2 is to prepare for the classics the following spring. Encouraging trainers to start later and thereby shorten the time period they have to train/race their horses to be able to negotiate 10f in May would only serve to increase the physical pressure already heaped on young racehorses.

[lemoncrush]

Why note make the following races "Win and you're in"?
3 races at the end of the 2-year old season
10 races during the 3-year old season

BC Juvenile, KY Jockey Cup, Hollywood Futurity

Risen Star, LA Derby, Fountain of Youth, FL Derby, Gotham, Wood, San Felipe, SA Derby, Rebel, Arkansas Derby,


The remaining spots in the field could be chosen by a Churchill committee (like the NCAA basketball tourney) or some other Criteria. Horses can still choose to run in the Bluegrass, Spiral, Sunland Derby, etc.. but it wouldn't automatically give them an entry into the Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The fact that Mine That Bird had an incredible Triple Crown run, which he did, doesn't change the fact that he had HORRIBLE credentials for the Derby. Only in a fluky year where the earnings basement was so low was he even able to get into the field.

Basing Mine That Bird being deserving of entry into the Derby on his 2YO form in Canada is idiotic. Are you seriously comparing him to a horse like Twinspired who has hit the board in two prep races (albeit on synthetics)? To steal a line from someone who lurks here, Twinspired is Alydar at this point compared to Mine That Bird.

I'm not even sure why MTB came up in this discussion. His Derby candidacy and the race that he ran to win it should forever be considered the exception. Am I glad he got into the Derby that year? Sure, but that three race stretch he put together was nothing short of shocking.

Blatantly false. Only 20 horses entered the Derby that year. He would have gotten in with $0 in earnings. In fact, the 20th ranked horse by earnings, Nowhere to Hide, was a late addition to the field. They almost drew with 19 horses.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by justindew

Blatantly false. Only 20 horses entered the Derby that year. He would have gotten in with $0 in earnings. In fact, the 20th ranked horse by earnings, Nowhere to Hide, was a late addition to the field. They almost drew with 19 horses.

And yes, I realize this point defeats my earlier point that if people around here had their way, Mine That Bird would have been excluded.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by justindew

And yes, I realize this point defeats my earlier point that if people around here had their way, Mine That Bird would have been excluded.

...although you COULD argue that had Mine That Bird's earnings not counted, he never would have been on the CD grounds in the first place, and would therefore never have been pointing to the Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

Blatantly false. Only 20 horses entered the Derby that year. He would have gotten in with $0 in earnings. In fact, the 20th ranked horse by earnings, Nowhere to Hide, was a late addition to the field. They almost drew with 19 horses.

What is your point? That only 19 sets of connections were interested?

How does that change the fact that in 2009 the graded stakes earnings of the 20th horse were lower than they had ever been before? Under the current rules a horse with the earnings Mine That Bird had would be excluded each year, of course, with the exception of 2009.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What is your point? That only 19 sets of connections were interested?

How does that change the fact that in 2009 the graded stakes earnings of the 20th horse were lower than they had ever been before? Under the current rules a horse with the earnings Mine That Bird had would be excluded each year, of course, with the exception of 2009.

My only point is that it I am against eliminating 2yr-old and synthetic earnings from consideration.

I am not, however, against replacing all synthetic tracks with dirt. It sounded like a good idea at the time. But it wasn't.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

Blatantly false. Only 20 horses entered the Derby that year. He would have gotten in with $0 in earnings. In fact, the 20th ranked horse by earnings, Nowhere to Hide, was a late addition to the field. They almost drew with 19 horses.

They almost drew it with 19? I may be wrong, but there was enough time for them to not only realize Win Willy was scratching, but then enough time to talk to Zito and get quotes and write stories about it. I believe the x-rays on Win Willy were done on Tuesday...

[Linny]

Why change anything? What "right" horses have been kept out by "wrong" horses?

If you eliminate synthetic, do you also not count grass races? That means a horse like Frankel (who is NOT pointing for the Derby) wouldn't be able to compete, yet I think that most people would like to see such a horse were his connections interested. In fact it would keep out Master of Hounds this year and by all accounts he's a pretty nice horse. By ditching synth you take out races like the CashCall Futurity, the Breeders' Futurity the Del Mar Futurity and in the last couple of years all the big SA preps.

As handicappers we like to see rational outcomes (at least rational to those who 'capped the winner) but the general public likes the excitement of the Mine That Bird or the Giacomo. The fact is that for the most part, graded earnings signify the "best" horses anyhow. If a horse isn't one of the top 20 in graded earnings overall in his generation he probably doesn't belong in the field.

As for field size being cut to eliminate some of the no-hopers, no way. Every other major racing nation runs it's classics with far bigger fields. Eight Belles didn't break down because she had to face 19 runners. Yes, it's a tough, scrappy race but it would be with 14 or even 8 runners, because it is the most famous race in America and every rider is riding like their life depends on it.