How Selfish Can Omama Be - Page 7

dalakhani · #**121** 10-31-2012, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Actually, no - If Romney wins Ohio, he still has to virtually run the board in the eight swings to get to 270.

I think that is likely to happen. If Obama can't carry Ohio, I don't think its likely that he carries the other states. I thnk he carries Ohio and wins the election but if he can't, he is toast in my opinion.

In what scenario do you see obama losing ohio and winning?

Riot · #**122** 10-31-2012, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think that is likely to happen. If Obama can't carry Ohio, I don't think its likely that he carries the other states. I thnk he carries Ohio and wins the election but if he can't, he is toast in my opinion.

In what scenario do you see obama losing ohio and winning?

As of today, Obama is ahead in all the swing states but North Carolina. Look at Rupert's anonymous data, it even agrees - but unlike Nate Silver, it colors North Carolina as going blue for Obama. That means Obama would sweep all the swings, and the Ipsos/Reuters Obama electoral landslide would happen.

Obama only has to win 2 out of 3 of Ohio, Florida, Colorado to win. Romney could take all the rest of the swings, but Obama would still win.

Romney has to win all three of OH, FL, and Colorado, plus nearly run the table on the rest (the other 5)

Here is Nate Silvers aggregate of national and state polling as of midnight, tonight (including todays polling)

Rudeboyelvis · #**123** 10-31-2012, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Nobody is "attacking" anybody. Get a grip. You posted one poll. I posted the most reliable aggregator of polls in the business.

Who is your pollster, and what day was it taken? Likely voters, or registered voters? Third time I've asked you - are you simply refusing to answer?

PS - you might look at the colors on the chart you posted - see all the "tossup" states blue? That means they are going Obama. And North Carolina, long thought to go Romney, is even blue via your anonymous pollster

Have you seen the polls released today? Did you look at the 538 site? What is your comment on the aggregation of Obama as being over 270 votes since June? He's gone way up and way down, but always been over 270.

Other than your dismissal of the information as a "left leaning pollster" when the guy doesn't even do any polling.

Your own poll shows Romney leading in FL, yet you posted that FL is "Likely Obama".... You are the definition of "FRAUD"

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**124** 10-31-2012, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Oh I see, you post the two most left leaning polls in existence as judge others. Got it. You are screwed and you know it.

thats her m.o..she plays it to the hilt..but in the end she will lose..and probebly take her own life if the light.obama were voted out... then she will blame the storm.and how the election should have been postponed..

Rudeboyelvis · #**125** 10-31-2012, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

As of today, Obama is ahead in all the swing states but North Carolina. Look at Rupert's anonymous data, it even agrees.

Obama only has to win 2 out of 3 of Ohio, Florida, Colorado to win. Romney has to win all three, plus nearly run the table on the rest.

Obama has lost any advantage in CO and FL and is losing both by your poll. OH is a toss up by every poll other than the 5 lefty polls that the NYT (the bastion of truth) guy "aggregates" ...lolololololol

Riot · #**126** 10-31-2012, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Your own poll shows Romney leading in FL, yet you posted that FL is "Likely Obama".... You are the definition of "FRAUD"

No, Rupert, stop calling names and try to understand how polling works. You have to look at the daily polling trends, and where the state has been.

All polls in Florida have Romney barely ahead, and have been trending down in Romney, and strongly Obama, for weeks now.

Plus, now Florida is trending solidly Obama based upon actual early voting results with massive Democratic turnout greater than 2008. Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%, which banks a great lead for him.

Rudeboyelvis · #**127** 10-31-2012, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think that is likely to happen. If Obama can't carry Ohio, I don't think its likely that he carries the other states. I thnk he carries Ohio and wins the election but if he can't, he is toast in my opinion.

In what scenario do you see obama losing ohio and winning?

The polls are still open when the exit polling and initial precinct data from OH will be released. NV will typically follow suit. You have it right - OH will sway the election.

Rudeboyelvis · #**128** 10-31-2012, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%, which banks a great lead for him.

Hahaha so they gave you access to the early voting records? Or is this more of the New York Times bullspit?

Riot · #**129** 10-31-2012, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Obama has lost any advantage in CO and FL and is losing both by your poll. OH is a toss up by every poll other than the 5 lefty polls that the NYT (the bastion of truth) guy "aggregates" ...lolololololol

I suggest you read the article accompanying the polling on the site I listed, so you understand polling.

Keep hoping for a Romney win - but that's barely a 1 in 5 chance at this point, and falling daily. Obama is at about 80% right now to win.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**130** 10-31-2012, 08:17 PM

now Florida is trending solidly Obama based upon actual early voting results with massive Democratic turnout greater than 2008. Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%.
you are delusional..

Riot · #**131** 10-31-2012, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Hahaha so they gave you access to the early voting records? Or is this more of the New York Times bullspit?

As you are obviously completely ignorant of how early voting in the early voting states is assessed, I suggest you try google.

Edit: here, I took pity on your not knowing what you are talking about - here is a chart of all current early voting results as of today, in all the early voting states:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...performs-2008/

Riot · #**132** 10-31-2012, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

now Florida is trending solidly Obama based upon actual early voting results with massive Democratic turnout greater than 2008. Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%.
you are delusional..

You keep telling yourself that, because the electoral college results are saying you're gone from here the evening of November 6

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**133** 10-31-2012, 08:23 PM

Download our dataRSS
CSV
API Latest Polls
Pollster Dates Pop. Romney Obama Undecided Margin
Gravis Marketing NEW! 10/30 - 10/30 549 LV 50 47 4 Romney +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 - 10/29 828 LV 47 48 5 Obama +1
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 687 LV 48 49 3 Obama +1
CNN 10/25 - 10/28 770 LV 50 49 1 Romney +1
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS NEW! 10/23 - 10/28 1,073 LV 47 48 3 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/27 595 LV 47 47 5 -
Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 50 48 1 Romney +2
Gravis Marketing 10/24 - 10/24 1,182 LV 50 49 2 Romney +1
Grove Insight (D-Project New America/USAction) 10/23 - 10/24 600 LV 45 47 7 Obama +2
Sunshine State News/VSS 10/22 - 10/24 1,001 LV 51 46 2 Romney +5
Pharos Research Group 10/19 - 10/21 759 LV 47 47 - -
Mellman (D-Americans United for Change) 10/18 - 10/21 800 LV 47 47 6 -
Angus-Reid 10/18 - 10/20 482 LV 51 46 - Romney +5
Rasmussen 10/18 - 10/18 750 LV 51 46 2 Romney +5
Grove Insight (D-Project New America) 10/17 - 10/18 600 LV 45 48 6 Obama +3
CNN 10/17 - 10/18 681 LV 49 48 2 Romney +1
PPP (D)/WPTV/FL Democracy/TCPalm 10/17 - 10/18 800 LV 48 47 4 Romney +1
FOX 10/17 - 10/18 1,215 LV 48 45 6 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 10/17 - 10/18 600 LV 46 47 5 Obama +1
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/16 - 10/18 842 LV 42 48 10 Obama +6
Gravis Marketing 10/13 - 10/14 617 LV 49 48 - Romney +1
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/14 791 LV 49 48 3 Romney +1
Rasmussen 10/11 - 10/11 750 LV 51 47 2 Romney +4
ARG 10/8 - 10/11 600 LV 49 46 4 Romney +3
YouGov 10/4 - 10/11 1,244 LV 47 48 2 Obama +1
Mason-Dixon 10/8 - 10/10 800 LV 51 44 4 Romney +7
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 988 LV 47 48 4 Obama +1
UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 45 49 4 Obama +4
Rasmussen 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 49 47 3 Romney +2
We Ask America 10/4 - 10/4 1,200 LV 49 46 4 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 46 47 6 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 9/29 - 9/30 914 LV 48 49 3 Obama +1
Suffolk 9/27 - 9/30 600 LV 43 46 8 Obama +3
InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union 9/24 - 9/24 540 LV 46 49 4 Obama +3
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/18 - 9/24 1,196 LV 44 53 3 Obama +9
PPP (D) 9/20 - 9/23 861 LV 46 50 4 Obama +4
Washington Post 9/19 - 9/23 769 LV 47 51 1 Obama +4
ARG 9/20 - 9/22 600 LV 45 50 4 Obama +5
Mason-Dixon 9/17 - 9/19 800 LV 47 48 4 Obama +1
Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
We Ask America 9/18 - 9/18 1,230 LV 46 49 4 Obama +3
FOX 9/16 - 9/18 829 LV 44 49 5 Obama +5
Gravis Marketing 9/15 - 9/16 1,728 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 1,415 LV 47 49 2 Obama +2
Rasmussen 9/12 - 9/12 500 LV 46 48 3 Obama +2
Caddell/McLaughlin (R)/Secure America Now 9/11 - 9/12 600 LV 48 44 9 Romney +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 - 9/11 980 LV 44 49 5 Obama +5
Consensus Communications (R) 9/8 - 9/11 606 LV 42 42 - -
McLaughlin (R)/AIF 9/9 - 9/10 600 LV 50 47 3 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 9/7 - 9/9 596 LV 44 48 5 Obama +4
Gravis Marketing 9/2 - 9/2 1,288 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
PPP (D) 8/31 - 9/2 1,548 LV 47 48 4 Obama +1
CNN/Time/ORC 8/22 - 8/26 776 LV 46 50 3 Obama +4
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 8/15 - 8/21 1,241 LV 46 49 - Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 8/20 - 8/20 728 LV 48 45 - Romney +3
FMWB (D) 8/17 - 8/17 1,503 LV 54 40 5 Romney +14
Rasmussen 8/15 - 8/15 500 LV 45 43 8 Romney +2
Purple Strategies 8/13 - 8/14 600 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 7/24 - 7/30 1,177 LV 45 51 4 Obama +6
PPP (D) 7/26 - 7/29 871 LV 47 48 5 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 7/17 - 7/19 647 LV 43 48 5 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 7/9 - 7/13 600 LV 48 45 7 Romney +3
Mason-Dixon 7/9 - 7/11 800 LV 45 46 7 Obama +1
Rasmussen 7/9 - 7/9 500 LV 46 45 4 Romney +1
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Priorities USA) 6/25 - 7/3 803 LV 44 48 - Obama +4
We Ask America 7/1 - 7/2 1,127 LV 45 46 9 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 6/19 - 6/25 1,200 RV 41 45 12 Obama +4
Quinnipiac 6/12 - 6/18 1,697 RV 42 46 9 Obama +4
Purple Strategies 5/31 - 6/5 600 LV 49 45 6 Romney +4
PPP (D) 5/31 - 6/3 642 LV 46 50 4 Obama +4
Quinnipiac 5/15 - 5/21 1,722 RV 47 41 10 Romney +6
NBC/Marist 5/17 - 5/20 1,078 RV 44 48 7 Obama +4
Suffolk 5/6 - 5/8 600 RV 45 46 8 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 4/25 - 5/1 1,169 RV 44 43 11 Romney +1
Rasmussen 4/25 - 4/25 500 LV 46 45 3 Romney +1
Purple Strategies 4/19 - 4/23 600 LV 47 45 7 Romney +2
FOX 4/15 - 4/17 757 RV 43 45 11 Obama +2
PPP (D) 4/12 - 4/15 700 LV 45 50 5 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 3/20 - 3/26 1,228 RV 42 49 5 Obama +7
Rasmussen 3/13 - 3/13 500 LV 43 46 4 Obama +3
Rasmussen 2/9 - 2/9 500 LV 44 47 3 Obama +3
Marist College 1/25 - 1/27 1,379 LV 41 49 10 Obama +8
Mason-Dixon 1/24 - 1/26 800 LV 48 44 - Romney +4
Suffolk 1/22 - 1/24 600 RV 47 42 10 Romney +5
Quinnipiac 1/19 - 1/23 1,518 RV 45 45 6 -
Tarrance (R-Walker) 1/17 - 1/18 607 LV 45 46 9 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 1/4 - 1/8 1,412 RV 46 43 6 Romney +3
Marist College 12/4 - 12/7/11 2,119 LV 41 48 11 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 11/28 - 12/5/11 1,226 RV 45 42 6 Romney +3
PPP (D) 11/28 - 12/1/11 700 LV 44 45 11 Obama +1
Rasmussen 11/17 - 11/17/11 500 LV 46 42 4 Romney +4
Quinnipiac 10/31 - 11/7/11 1,185 RV 45 42 8 Romney +3
Marist College 10/10 - 10/12/11 2,225 LV 43 45 12 Obama +2
PPP (D) 6/16 - 6/19/11 848 LV 43 47 10 Obama +4
Suffolk 4/10 - 4/12/11 600 RV 43 42 10 Romney +1
Mason-Dixon 4/4 - 4/7/11 800 LV 48 43 - Romney +5
PPP (D) 3/24 - 3/27/11 1,034 LV 44 46 11 Obama +2
Pollster Dates Pop. Romney Obama Undecided Margin
Gravis Marketing NEW! 10/30 - 10/30 549 LV 50 47 4 Romney +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 - 10/29 828 LV 47 48 5 Obama +1
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 687 LV 48 49 3 Obama +1
CNN 10/25 - 10/28 770 LV 50 49 1 Romney +1
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS NEW! 10/23 - 10/28 1,073 LV 47 48 3 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/27 595 LV 47 47 5 -
Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 50 48 1 Romney +2
Gravis Marketing 10/24 - 10/24 1,182 LV 50 49 2 Romney +1
Grove Insight (D-Project New America/USAction) 10/23 - 10/24 600 LV 45 47 7 Obama +2
Sunshine State News/VSS 10/22 - 10/24 1,001 LV 51 46 2 Romney +5
Pharos Research Group 10/19 - 10/21 759 LV 47 47 - -
Mellman (D-Americans United for Change) 10/18 - 10/21 800 LV 47 47 6 -
Angus-Reid 10/18 - 10/20 482 LV 51 46 - Romney +5
Rasmussen 10/18 - 10/18 750 LV 51 46 2 Romney +5
Grove Insight (D-Project New America) 10/17 - 10/18 600 LV 45 48 6 Obama +3
CNN 10/17 - 10/18 681 LV 49 48 2 Romney +1
PPP (D)/WPTV/FL Democracy/TCPalm 10/17 - 10/18 800 LV 48 47 4 Romney +1
FOX 10/17 - 10/18 1,215 LV 48 45 6 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 10/17 - 10/18 600 LV 46 47 5 Obama +1
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/16 - 10/18 842 LV 42 48 10 Obama +6
Gravis Marketing 10/13 - 10/14 617 LV 49 48 - Romney +1
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/14 791 LV 49 48 3 Romney +1
Rasmussen 10/11 - 10/11 750 LV 51 47 2 Romney +4
ARG 10/8 - 10/11 600 LV 49 46 4 Romney +3
YouGov 10/4 - 10/11 1,244 LV 47 48 2 Obama +1
Mason-Dixon 10/8 - 10/10 800 LV 51 44 4 Romney +7
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 988 LV 47 48 4 Obama +1
UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 45 49 4 Obama +4
Rasmussen 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 49 47 3 Romney +2
We Ask America 10/4 - 10/4 1,200 LV 49 46 4 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 46 47 6 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 9/29 - 9/30 914 LV 48 49 3 Obama +1
Suffolk 9/27 - 9/30 600 LV 43 46 8 Obama +3
InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union 9/24 - 9/24 540 LV 46 49 4 Obama +3
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 9/18 - 9/24 1,196 LV 44 53 3 Obama +9
PPP (D) 9/20 - 9/23 861 LV 46 50 4 Obama +4
Washington Post 9/19 - 9/23 769 LV 47 51 1 Obama +4
ARG 9/20 - 9/22 600 LV 45 50 4 Obama +5
Mason-Dixon 9/17 - 9/19 800 LV 47 48 4 Obama +1
Purple Strategies 9/15 - 9/19 600 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
We Ask America 9/18 - 9/18 1,230 LV 46 49 4 Obama +3
FOX 9/16 - 9/18 829 LV 44 49 5 Obama +5
Gravis Marketing 9/15 - 9/16 1,728 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
YouGov 9/7 - 9/14 1,415 LV 47 49 2 Obama +2
Rasmussen 9/12 - 9/12 500 LV 46 48 3 Obama +2
Caddell/McLaughlin (R)/Secure America Now 9/11 - 9/12 600 LV 48 44 9 Romney +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 - 9/11 980 LV 44 49 5 Obama +5
Consensus Communications (R) 9/8 - 9/11 606 LV 42 42 - -
McLaughlin (R)/AIF 9/9 - 9/10 600 LV 50 47 3 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 9/7 - 9/9 596 LV 44 48 5 Obama +4
Gravis Marketing 9/2 - 9/2 1,288 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
PPP (D) 8/31 - 9/2 1,548 LV 47 48 4 Obama +1
CNN/Time/ORC 8/22 - 8/26 776 LV 46 50 3 Obama +4
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 8/15 - 8/21 1,241 LV 46 49 - Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 8/20 - 8/20 728 LV 48 45 - Romney +3
FMWB (D) 8/17 - 8/17 1,503 LV 54 40 5 Romney +14
Rasmussen 8/15 - 8/15 500 LV 45 43 8 Romney +2
Purple Strategies 8/13 - 8/14 600 LV 48 47 5 Romney +1
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS 7/24 - 7/30 1,177 LV 45 51 4 Obama +6
PPP (D) 7/26 - 7/29 871 LV 47 48 5 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 7/17 - 7/19 647 LV 43 48 5 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 7/9 - 7/13 600 LV 48 45 7 Romney +3
Mason-Dixon 7/9 - 7/11 800 LV 45 46 7 Obama +1
Rasmussen 7/9 - 7/9 500 LV 46 45 4 Romney +1
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Priorities USA) 6/25 - 7/3 803 LV 44 48 - Obama +4
We Ask America 7/1 - 7/2 1,127 LV 45 46 9 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 6/19 - 6/25 1,200 RV 41 45 12 Obama +4
Quinnipiac 6/12 - 6/18 1,697 RV 42 46 9 Obama +4
Purple Strategies 5/31 - 6/5 600 LV 49 45 6 Romney +4
PPP (D) 5/31 - 6/3 642 LV 46 50 4 Obama +4
Quinnipiac 5/15 - 5/21 1,722 RV 47 41 10 Romney +6
NBC/Marist 5/17 - 5/20 1,078 RV 44 48 7 Obama +4
Suffolk 5/6 - 5/8 600 RV 45 46 8 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 4/25 - 5/1 1,169 RV 44 43 11 Romney +1
Rasmussen 4/25 - 4/25 500 LV 46 45 3 Romney +1
Purple Strategies 4/19 - 4/23 600 LV 47 45 7 Romney +2
FOX 4/15 - 4/17 757 RV 43 45 11 Obama +2
PPP (D) 4/12 - 4/15 700 LV 45 50 5 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 3/20 - 3/26 1,228 RV 42 49 5 Obama +7
Rasmussen 3/13 - 3/13 500 LV 43 46 4 Obama +3
Rasmussen 2/9 - 2/9 500 LV 44 47 3 Obama +3
Marist College 1/25 - 1/27 1,379 LV 41 49 10 Obama +8
Mason-Dixon 1/24 - 1/26 800 LV 48 44 - Romney +4
Suffolk 1/22 - 1/24 600 RV 47 42 10 Romney +5
Quinnipiac 1/19 - 1/23 1,518 RV 45 45 6 -
Tarrance (R-Walker) 1/17 - 1/18 607 LV 45 46 9 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 1/4 - 1/8 1,412 RV 46 43 6 Romney +3
Marist College 12/4 - 12/7/11 2,119 LV 41 48 11 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 11/28 - 12/5/11 1,226 RV 45 42 6 Romney +3
PPP (D) 11/28 - 12/1/11 700 LV 44 45 11 Obama +1
Rasmussen 11/17 - 11/17/11 500 LV 46 42 4 Romney +4
Quinnipiac 10/31 - 11/7/11 1,185 RV 45 42 8 Romney +3
Marist College 10/10 - 10/12/11 2,225 LV 43 45 12 Obama +2
PPP (D) 6/16 - 6/19/11 848 LV 43 47 10 Obama +4
Suffolk 4/10 - 4/12/11 600 RV 43 42 10 Romney +1
Mason-Dixon 4/4 - 4/7/11 800 LV 48 43 - Romney +5
PPP (D) 3/24 - 3/27/11 1,034 LV 44 46 11 Obama +2
Show more ▼More Poll Charts

Mitt Romney 48.5% Barack Obama 47.4%

Riot · #**134** 10-31-2012, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

Download our dataRSS
CSV
API Latest Polls

Yes, posting polls from last April was very helpful, Hooves

Pollster Dates Pop. Romney Obama Undecided Margin

Gravis Marketing NEW! 10/30 - 10/30 549 LV 50 47 4 Romney +3
(Gravis generally runs with a 4+ GOP sampling bias, so that puts Obama up 1)

JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 - 10/29 828 LV 47 48 5 Obama +1

PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 687 LV 48 49 3 Obama +1

CNN 10/25 - 10/28 770 LV 50 49 1 Romney +1
(CNN generally right on)

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS NEW! 10/23 - 10/28 1,073 LV 47 48 3 Obama +1

SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/27 595 LV 47 47 5 -

Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 50 48 1 Romney +2
(House of Ras is very GOP leaning)

Yes - the above show that the national popular vote is close. But it's who wins each state, even by 1 vote, that matters in the electoral college.

Rudeboyelvis · #**135** 10-31-2012, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

You keep telling yourself that, because the electoral college results are saying you're gone from here the evening of November 6

Please explain how you crowned Obama as Most Likely winning FL when your own poll says the opposite.

Obama got a slight bump by pollsters reading into Christys endorsement of how he said he was going to open the floodgates of borrowed money (ie. remove all red tape) to save his state. Which the President should. These people need help. Now. That is a position held by all, I hope.

But that won't translate on Tuesday. 80% chance?!! Intrade would dispute this by 15% at least.

Riot · #**136** 10-31-2012, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Please explain how you crowned Obama as Most Likely winning FL when your own poll says the opposite.

I didn't crown Obama anything - the professional pollsters crowned him. Again, I posted two extremely accurate and well respected poll aggregators, which you just dismissed out of hand as "lefty" (which is simply false) There is plenty of information on their sites about electoral college voting trends.

As I said, you are looking at today's snapshot number, when you have to look at the current daily trend. Polling is being conducted by multiple organizations on a daily basis now. And Obama is gaining daily, and Romney is falling daily.

In Florida, Dems currently hold the advantage in early voting, 43% to 41%.

Quote:

Obama got a slight bump by pollsters reading into Christys endorsement of how he said he was going to open the floodgates of borrowed money (ie. remove all red tape) to save his state. Which the President should. These people need help. Now. That is a position held by all, I hope.

But that won't translate on Tuesday. 80% chance?!! Intrade would dispute this by 15% at least.

Really, none of that has anything to do with affecting the electoral vote, which determines the winner.

This election was pretty well decided months ago, with only 1 significant blip after that (Obama's bad performance the first debate brought Romney up) but then a solidification for Obama, and falling off of Romney, since then.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**137** 10-31-2012, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Yes, posting polls from last April was very helpful, Hooves

Pollster Dates Pop. Romney Obama Undecided Margin

Gravis Marketing NEW! 10/30 - 10/30 549 LV 50 47 4 Romney +3
(Gravis generally runs with a 4+ GOP sampling bias, so that puts Obama up 1)

JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 - 10/29 828 LV 47 48 5 Obama +1

PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 687 LV 48 49 3 Obama +1

CNN 10/25 - 10/28 770 LV 50 49 1 Romney +1
(CNN generally right on)

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS NEW! 10/23 - 10/28 1,073 LV 47 48 3 Obama +1

SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/27 595 LV 47 47 5 -

Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 50 48 1 Romney +2
(House of Ras is very GOP leaning)

Yes - the above show that the national popular vote is close. But it's who wins each state, even by 1 vote, that matters in the electoral college.

Gravis Marketing NEW! 10/30 - 10/30 549 LV 50 47 4 Romney +3

Riot · #**138** 10-31-2012, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

Gravis Marketing NEW! 10/30 - 10/30 549 LV 50 47 4 Romney +3

Please, please, please bet your assumption of election outcome based upon Gravis Marketing

You need to read up on who/what Gravis Marketing is, and how they sample

Rudeboyelvis · #**139** 10-31-2012, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

I didn't crown Obama anything - the professional pollsters crowned him. .

That's a lie. I posted a Rasmussen poll that showed Romney ahead by 2 points in Fl. You questioned the poll and provided your own poll. You said that Obama is the "Most Likely" winner in FL, yet the exact poll you referenced showed the exact opposite.

How do you explain this?

Riot · #**140** 10-31-2012, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

That's a lie. I posted a Rasmussen poll that showed Romney ahead by 2 points in Fl. You questioned the poll and provided your own poll. You said that Obama is the "Most Likely" winner in FL, yet the exact poll you referenced showed the exact opposite.

How do you explain this?

First: I am posting two aggregate pollsters, Nate Silver 538 and TPM, and both have excellent reputations for accuracy. They take Rasmussen and mix with other polls for a total, overall view.

You are looking at one Republican-leaning poll, only Rasmussen.

Secondly: For the third time, I'll repeat the same explanation: TRENDING

Obama is strongly trending up, Romney trending down. Post Rasmussen Florida for the past 5 days in Florida, Rude. Even House of Ras has Romney trending downwards in Florida.

(Here: this is from Friday, but Ras has Romney trending down in Florida the past week http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...rida_president )

Thirdly: Democrats beating Republican in early voting.

I've very confident of Obama winning Florida. Won't be by much, but he'll win. Even if Romney wins FL, he would have to still run the table with CO, NV, OH, PA, NC, VA, NH.

That is based upon looking at lots of different polls, over the past six months.

Romney simply has no easy way to 270 votes, Obama does. It's a week before the election. What you see is what you get.