Ride on Normandy Invasion

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

was the move premature for normandy invasion, or just premature? would it have been a winning move on a better horse?
i'm not sure that NI is that good, and like chuck i don't think he's bred to go 10f.
did the ride really cost him, or was it the final nail in the coffin?

There is not a horse in the race that would have won with Normandy Invasion's trip in my opinion. I really don't think any would have been better than fourth.

[Danzig]

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-st...-consideration

just visited drf, and saw this update, which includes brown discussing the trip.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There is not a horse in the race that would have won with Normandy Invasion's trip in my opinion. I really don't think any would have been better than fourth.

I truly don't know how to measure this. Three scenarios have been presented.
Both horses get Orb's trip
I lean toward Orb

Both get NI's trip
I don't know

They swap trips
I lean toward NI

So now I compare NI to Oxbow. Orb beat NI by 3 1/2 NI beat Oxbow by 6
Both horses get NI's trip
I lean toward NI

Both horses get Oxbow's trip
I don't know

They swap trips
I lean toward Oxbow

How do I measure how much of a toll Oxbow's trip took on him by running 4/5 faster than NI in the first 1/4 mile and 2/5 (appr.) slower in the second 1/4? I'm just guessing.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-st...-consideration

just visited drf, and saw this update, which includes brown discussing the trip.

Good article.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Good article.

That hardly means that Brown was happy with the ride. It just means that he took the high road and didn't want to criticize his jock in the media. One of my trainers got a horrible ride in a stakes race about 10 years ago. The horse was a come-from-behinder who was sitting in a good spot (laying 3rd a couple lengths back going down the backstretch), when the jock inexplicably decided to move up and engage the leaders at the half-mile pole. In the newspaper interviews, the trainer took the blame himself saying he had the horse "too fresh". I talked to the trainer two days later and asked him about the ride. He told me he thought the ride was terrible. I asked him why he didn't just come out and say it in the interview. He said he simply didn't want to criticize the jockey publicly.

I don't know Chad Brown so I can't ask him what he thought of the ride. I don't claim to know whether he is mad about the ride. But I can guarantee you that he knows that the horse would have finished closer with a more patient ride. That is pretty obvious even from his reserved comment, "The mile and a quarter is a different animal. There’s running on a sloppy track and making a move and running on a sloppy track at a mile and a quarter – it’s a long way to go." He was being diplomatic.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I truly don't know how to measure this.

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

Orb was 18.75 lengths back after a half mile, and he, like everyone else, was still too close to the pace.

Had Rosario gone into the race with the plan to allow Orb to drop out of the field early and try to lose contact with the entire pack, it would have resulted in a better performance from Orb and he would have won with greater authority.

The problem is, NO ONE expected a pace anywhere close to that. The insanely fast pace was unexpected.

The last sloppy track was 2010, and Rosario allowed the pathetic longshot Make Music For Me to lag 28 lengths off of the early pace. He's in a purple box in this picture: He ultimately made a big wide move on the far turn and finished 4th



The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.


The Mine That Bird tactics of dropping out of the pack early ...



would have been genius this year.

But that's in hindsight. No one could have predicted that pace...and if you're going to purposefully try and lose early contact with the field, you better be damn sure that the psychotic pace actually materializes.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

I understand that. I was more specifically trying to determine how to evaluate the horses I listed when placed in each others shoes. In 4 of the cases the same shoes.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That hardly means that Brown was happy with the ride. It just means that he took the high road and didn't want to criticize his jock in the media. One of my trainers got a horrible ride in a stakes race about 10 years ago. The horse was a come-from-behinder who was sitting in a good spot (laying 3rd a couple lengths back going down the backstretch), when the jock inexplicably decided to move up and engage the leaders at the half-mile pole. In the newspaper interviews, the trainer took the blame himself saying he had the horse "too fresh". I talked to the trainer two days later and asked him about the ride. He told me he thought the ride was terrible. I asked him why he didn't just come out and say it in the interview. He said he simply didn't want to criticize the jockey publicly.

I don't know Chad Brown so I can't ask him what he thought of the ride. I don't claim to know whether he is mad about the ride. But I can guarantee you that he knows that the horse would have finished closer with a more patient ride. That is pretty obvious even from his reserved comment, "The mile and a quarter is a different animal. There’s running on a sloppy track and making a move and running on a sloppy track at a mile and a quarter – it’s a long way to go." He was being diplomatic.

Whatever you say...lol

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

Orb was 18.75 lengths back after a half mile, and he, like everyone else, was still too close to the pace.

Had Rosario gone into the race with the plan to allow Orb to drop out of the field early and try to lose contact with the entire pack, it would have resulted in a better performance from Orb and he would have won with greater authority.

The problem is, NO ONE expected a pace anywhere close to that. The insanely fast pace was unexpected.

The last sloppy track was 2010, and Rosario allowed the pathetic longshot Make Music For Me to lag 28 lengths off of the early pace. He's in a purple box in this picture: He ultimately made a big wide move on the far turn and finished 4th



The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.


The Mine That Bird tactics of dropping out of the pack early ...



would have been genius this year.

But that's in hindsight. No one could have predicted that pace...and if you're going to purposefully try and lose early contact with the field, you better be damn sure that the psychotic pace actually materializes.

A good jockey doesn't need to predict the pace. A good jockey will position his horse based on how the pace unfolds. Of course a jockey will usually have a general game plan going into a race, but a good jockey will change the game plan as the race unfolds. Rosario didn't plan on being 18 lengths behind. He was probably expecting the half to go in :47 and he probably planned on being 5-6 lengths back. But once the race started and he could see there was a suicide pace, he dropped much further back, as any good jockey would do in that situation.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

A good jockey doesn't need to predict the pace. A good jockey will position his horse based on how the pace unfolds. Of course a jockey will usually have a general game plan going into a race, but a good jockey will change the game plan as the race unfolds. Rosario didn't plan on being 18 lengths behind. He was probably expecting the half to go in :47 and he probably planned on being 5-6 lengths back. But once the race started and he could see there was a suicide pace, he dropped much further back, as any good jockey would do in that situation.

You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.

Sometimes there is nothing you can do. If your horse gets rank and runs off, there is nothing you can do.

With regard to Goldencents, he was in a tough spot. He gunned early and then I think he realized how fast they were going but it was too late for him to really take way back at that point. As bad as he ran, I don't think he would have done anything no matter where he was laying. He probably didn't like the track. I didn't like Goldencents at all going into the race, but I know he is capable of running better than he ran. It was good that Krigger took care of the horse and wrapped up on him once he saw he was hopelessly beat.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.

I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Revidere

I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987

That's funny, had not seen that.

[asudevil]

The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.

This example just gave me agida! I had IB at 85-1 in the Wynn futures. Lezcano couldn't follow Borel up the rail? Had to go 10 wide, stop, go 3 more wide, and then make a huge run?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Revidere

I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987

He's totally wrong and it's not even debatable. Most of the good jocks can tell you how fast they're going, give or take half a second. The really good exercise riders can do the same thing. You tell a top exercise rider to work 1:01, they will usually come very close. They will be somewhere between 1:00 3/5 and 1:01 2/5 almost every time. Not all exercise riders can do this, but most of the top ones can.

[Calzone Lord]

'95% of the time the best horse wins'

'jockeys know exactly how fast they're going in races'


You can't make this stuff up.

[Danzig]

i read somewhere that 95% of statistics are made up...