2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Rumbling and stumbling and still won by 3 1/2 lengths.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Vekoma is just Ok. I'm 4 deep and didn't cover him today. I used 1 6 7 11.
Tacitus marches on as the Derby chalk.

Just my opinion but he looked very impressive today. Not sure if he’ll be chalk but I like how things played out today.

I’ve been out on Game Winner as the derby favorite. He doesn’t get good early position and runs wide a lot. I like the horse but he runs in small fields and still doesn’t get ideal trips. I thought he should have won today but was 4 wide the entire race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Tell me about it. I debated on putting a win bet on him. Saw him at 9-2 and couldn’t resist. I’ll take the win, just wish it was at better odds.

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I know you like WWW, but like I said before the Tampa Bay Derby he feels like another one who needs 1 turn. That's where I would be pointing if he was mine.
I think things got pretty clear today. Bob has a power house 3. Mott has a monster who improves every race, and Vekoma ran better then I thought he would so he's a player, I guess. I'm really not sure he beat anything today. A few turf horses and Pletchers 4th string??

Tacitus is a monster? Really?

A little early, no? Promising for sure, but hardly a monster. Everything doesn't have to be hyperbole.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

Yeah, I should have known it was too good to be true. I’ll still take it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I know you like WWW, but like I said before the Tampa Bay Derby he feels like another one who needs 1 turn. That's where I would be pointing if he was mine.
I think things got pretty clear today. Bob has a power house 3. Mott has a monster who improves every race, and Vekoma ran better then I thought he would so he's a player, I guess. I'm really not sure he beat anything today. A few turf horses and Pletchers 4th string??

I like Improbable a whole lot but the Arkansas Derby is a pretty tough field. There is at least a chance he doesn’t finish in the top 3 next weekend and that Power House 3 becomes a Power House 2.

I’m debating on putting a future wager on Improbable. He was just at 12-1. If he rises a little, I’ll probably put some money on him.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I know you like WWW, but like I said before the Tampa Bay Derby he feels like another one who needs 1 turn. That's where I would be pointing if he was mine.
I think things got pretty clear today. Bob has a power house 3. Mott has a monster who improves every race, and Vekoma ran better then I thought he would so he's a player, I guess. I'm really not sure he beat anything today. A few turf horses and Pletchers 4th string??

Baffert doesn’t have a power house three. He had one shot Roadster. Tacitus is improving but far from a monster. His figures won’t be high from the wood. The horse that impressed me the most so far Joey is maximum security but hell can you bet him in derby. This is going to be a difficult puzzle first Saturday in May.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

I like Improbable a whole lot but the Arkansas Derby is a pretty tough field. There is at least a chance he doesn’t finish in the top 3 next weekend and that Power House 3 becomes a Power House 2.

I’m debating on putting a future wager on Improbable. He was just at 12-1. If he rises a little, I’ll probably put some money on him.

Can’t see game winner having any shot. If he was a power house would have won easy today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Can’t see game winner having any shot. If he was a power house would have won easy today.

I agree I don’t like Game Winner. Good horse but I don’t see him winning the derby. We’ll see about Improbable. I don’t think he’ll beat Omaha Beach.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Tacitus is a monster? Really?

A little early, no? Promising for sure, but hardly a monster. Everything doesn't have to be hyperbole.

You know I love him. If I had to choose 1 horse right now it would be him. He feels most likely to me to sit the right trip and move forward again. That's knowing Baffert is going to have 3 live shots. Baffert could have the top 3 betting favorites if Improbable is impressive next Saturday.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[ScottJ]

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

He’s a three year old in April, he’s supposed to be working hard for everything.

Is everyone who has enough points gonna go to the derby ? Looks like Anothertwistafate has to run in the Lexington to get more points.

[Kasept]

AR DERBY

Galilean (Flavien Prat)
Gray Attempt (Stewart Elliott)
Improbable (Jose Ortiz)
Long Range Toddy (Jon Court)
Omaha Beach (Mike Smith)
One Flew South (Calvin Borel)
Six Shooter (David Cohen)
Country House (Mott)

Roiland (Amoss)
Jersey Agenda (Asmussen)
Laughing Fox (Asmussen)
Tikhvin Flew (Asmussen)

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He’s a three year old in April, he’s supposed to be working hard for everything.

Is everyone who has enough points gonna go to the derby ? Looks like Anothertwistafate has to run in the Lexington to get more points.

Originally Gray Magician was most likely out but I’ve read that they’re considering running. I haven’t heard anything about any other horses not running.

As it is now, you’ve got a number of horses out of the top 18 that may be running on Saturday:

Omaha Beach
Improbable
Country House
Galilean
Gray Attempt
Six Shooter
Jersey Agenda
Last Judgment
Anothertwistafate
Sueno
Mucho Gusto

Plus some others.

Those horses with 40 points who thought they were probably safe for the derby may end up on the outside looking in.

[moses]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

Juarez was suspended 15 days and fined $2,500. The problem is, he normally rides in Florida and is already back there riding so the suspension is almost entirely symbolic.

[LITF]

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...