Invasor 1 to 9

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

IMO, his last two races were more impressive.

In the Whitney....Jara unwisely moved very pre-maturely, into hot fractions, to take it to Flower Alley....he somehow still had enough left late, to turn back a dream trip Sun King. It was a tremendous performance...as he was clearly much better than everyone else in the field that day.

In the BC Classic....he got his trip and setup...but he beat a very tough field.

He did everything he had to do today---however, it was no historically great performance....like many are acting.

I appologize for knocking Sun King....for his no doubt "great" performance in teh Whitney.

it was a great performance in that he had a troubled trip, which could have been disastrous and thankfully wasn't, and came back on to win.
as for sun king, he did have a good performance in the whitney. horses do that sometimes, run over their head. hell, look at seek gold and colonial colony in their stephen fosters!

[blackthroatedwind]

DrugS is secretly Sun King's biggest fan and it is only in his bitter disappointment that he lost two of the biggest races in 2006 by slim margins that he dares knock him. It is simply nothing more than self-flagellation.

[The Bid]

Seek Golds performance was "ELECTRIC"

[blackthroatedwind]

And, by the way, I am in the camp of posters that think all things considered Invasor had a decent trip. He had some trouble, and certainly showed some toughness, but he also saved ground and beat a field he was supposed to handle.

While I am dubious of his chances of beating Discreet Cat in the World Cup I will be rooting with ever fiber of my being for him to do just that if for no other reason than I will look forward to 1367 posts by DrugS detailing why Discreet Cat ran the best race and only furthered his reputation as the greatest horse to ever wear a bridle.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So it was a great sight to watch, and he overcame major league trouble, but not a great performance. OK.

No one was expecting a race for the ages here. Invasor just showed yet another dimension to his will to win.

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

Please, if the horse was Discreet Cat he would have folded up once the going got tough like that Ward horse in the Hal's Hope and we would have had to hear about how the terrible trip got him beat. Instead he showed heart, fought through the tough trip, and actually won so everyone is going to focus on the slow time and the lack of competition and just ignore the trouble he ran into during the race. He'll get the worst Beyer of his career (about a 107) which shouldn't be surprising considering the trouble he ran into. I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

[blackthroatedwind]

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

In that case...you really don't understand it at all....and have a lot to learn.

[blackthroatedwind]

While I know you are just having fun here, which is obviously totally cool, I will say ( for what it's worth ) that I have spent a lot of time discussing the races and watching replays with DrugS and I have a huge amount of respect for his opinion.

He's a pathetic excuse for a human being, and really only of actual value during an unexpected flood, but he can handicap circles around 99% of the horseplaying population.

[The Bid]

BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Bid

BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's a pathetic excuse for a human being.

Yeah, but I make up for that with my dashingly good looks!

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, I'm an Invasor fan, and have been one since what I thought was a very underrated win in the Pimlico Special. People tended to discount that victory because it came over Wanderin Boy but to me he acted as his own rabbit that day, keeping a loose speed honest against his own best talents, and then taking a breather late on the turn before rerallying to run that one down. You cannot do that unless you possess unusual talent. I have liked him in every one of his starts and am on record as saying that he deserved as much respect as Bernardini going into the Classic.

[blackthroatedwind]

Oh yeah, and one other thing, DrugS does all that while overcoming the handicap of being hideously ugly.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

The trips are what they are and I think if you watch the race a couple more times you will see that I in no way overexagerated Hesanoldsalt's trip. I am not way suggesting he is close to the horse Invasor is but merely suggesting that his trip was less than perfect in contrasting ways to Invasor's.

I knock Jara because I believe that a major responsibility of a rider is, when riding superior horses in races, to take no unnecessary chances. I applaud riders that take risks, like Jara's today, when they ride an inferior horse and need to get lucky to win, or even end up close, but I do not believe every horse should be ridden the same.

[pmayjr]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but didn't when Invasor clipped heels and almost go down kinda remind y'all of Afleet Alex in the Preakness a little bit? What a horse!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

didn't when Invasor clipped heels and almost go down kinda remind y'all of Afleet Alex in the Preakness a little bit?

Not even remotely. He stumbled very briefly and hardly " almost went down ".

I suggest a viewing of the replay....pan and head-on as you are offering a massively distorted view of what actually took place.

Quite frankly I see tougher trips on a regular day to day basis. Trips are about taking everything that happens in a race into account, both individually and as a whole, and not about necessarily focusing on one specific incident. The bottom line is the brief trouble Invasor encountered did not massively supercede all the good things that happened to him in the race.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, I'm an Invasor fan, and have been one since what I thought was a very underrated win in the Pimlico Special.... I have liked him in every one of his starts and am on record as saying that he deserved as much respect as Bernardini going into the Classic.

amen

[b]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In the BC Classic....he got his trip and setup...but he beat a very tough field.

As far as the Classic goes, he showed an entirely new dimension in his American races -- coming from as far off the pace as he did. It was as much a factor of the other speed signed on as anything, but let's not pretend that he just waltzed along near the pace like he had prior. This coming from well off the pace thing is something you only see in his last two races. So I respectfully contend that he didn't get "his trip" in the Classic. A good trip for certain, but not the one we were accustomed to.