134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[Danzig]

coa had a choice of mounts, opting to remain with musket man over big drama, who will now have jonnie v in the irons.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah but he said it like the TG guys called the winner. I'm pretty sure this is what they said:

"was relatively slow at two, and finally moved forward last time. There is nothing wrong with this pattern, and with rest he has a good chance to run a new top now -- but he would need an enormous jump to be competitive."

Correct- TG guys were well off the mark, as most of us were, but I didn't get that out of what he wrote. He just stated that TG at least predicted a decent run whereas he was the consensus choice to finish last.

In fact, I said he was even money to finish last.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Just so I'm clear, Gales are saying that maybe the connections weren't trying in the Sunland races, so they could cash in big in the Derby?

I think it is quite apparent the connections had no intention of running in the Derby. They bought the horse with hopes of running in the lucrative Sunland 3 yr old raced focusing on the Sunland Derby and if all went well there perhaps the Belmont Stakes. There was great uproar over Dunkirk's 150,000 graded earnings not being enough. At the start of 2009, with the 138,000 graded earnings of Mine That Bird I'm sure the connections weren't thinking that was enough and they made no attempt to run in a graded race. For anyone to say they weren't trying in the Sunland races is absolutely nuts. Those races were the reason they purchased the horse. A win in the Sunland Derby would have earned them more than what they paid for him.

Once the calvacade of injuries started...lo and behold they actually had enough graded earnings to get in the Derby and the legendary left footed drive to Louisville commenced. Their only goal in the Derby was to not get embarrased and finish top 10 and do enough to move on to the Belmont Stakes. Things changed.

[Antitrust32]

while its obvious this will be Rachel Alexandra's toughest race ever...

I wonder what her racing style will be with Big Drama and speed in that race... Hope she doesnt get caught up in a speed duel and fades.. but she might even be good enough to be in a speed duel and still put them away and win by open lengths.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

while its obvious this will be Rachel Alexandra's toughest race ever...

I wonder what her racing style will be with Big Drama and speed in that race... Hope she doesnt get caught up in a speed duel and fades.. but she might even be good enough to be in a speed duel and still put them away and win by open lengths.

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gales0678

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

didnt she sit just off the pace in the Oaks...

hopefully she relaxes in this race and doesnt get caught up.

to be honest I dont think Pimlico fits MTB's style and even if the speed got caught up someone else would probably win...

Unless of course the track is made of soup again.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

Because Mine That Bird isn't that good of a horse when he's not running in the mud, saving ground with a rail skimming ride by Borel. Borel rode the horse perfectly on that day. Chances are the horse is no where near as good as he showed last week and will never run to that level again without the optimal setup that he received last week. I guess he could but others are more likelier.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Because Mine That Bird isn't that good of a horse when he's not running in the mud, saving ground with a rail skimming ride by Borel. Borel rode the horse perfectly on that day. Chances are the horse is no where near as good as he showed last week and will never run to that level again without the optimal setup that he received last week. I guess he could but others are more likelier.

i hear what you are saying but the fractions in the preakness with RA and Big Drama could be just as quick , why wouldn't that help a horse that comes off the pace , assuming that's what the connections tell the new jock to do?

if the race falls apart because of pace , why can't he win again, if he runs back to his new top

don't 3 yr olds usually pair up? he ran two low 80's at Sunland , now he has a 105 off track or not why are we to believe that he can't repeat that beyer effort?

[philcski]

There is a monkey wrench in the RA to Preakness plan that just occurred to me. Since she needs to be supplemented, she will automatically be LAST on the preference list. If 14 go, she could be excluded. It's highly unlikely, but possible given the Derby results.

[XIIPointStables]

Didn't see this here - FF is a go.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/103575.html

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well, I was way wrong about this one. I'm shocked.

I think Coach had this one right- it ain't his foot that's ailing, it's Jones' ego.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

There is a monkey wrench in the RA to Preakness plan that just occurred to me. Since she needs to be supplemented, she will automatically be LAST on the preference list. If 14 go, she could be excluded. It's highly unlikely, but possible given the Derby results.

That would be really interesting and I wonder if a trainer of a contender would consider entering another horse or two just to shut her out.

[King Glorious]

One horse that won't be running in the Preakness is Mr. Hot Stuff. His future plans?

INGLEWOOD, Calif. - Mr. Hot Stuff has emerged from his 15th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby last weekend in good condition and is being considered for races on both coasts, trainer Eoin Harty said Thursday.

Owned by WinStar Stable, Mr. Hot Stuff is with Harty's stable at Keeneland. He could be sent to California for an allowance race or New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 6. Harty said he will assess the colt's condition before finalizing plans.
___________

Either or. Basically, no difference. I thought that was kind of funny to read.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think Coach had this one right- it ain't his foot that's ailing, it's Jones' ego.

he miraculously healed.

or..maybe they overstated the inital injury?

[Bobby Fischer]

TRIVIA QUESTION
What derby favorite's normal trip should be expected to produce an 18th finish?

Answer:
ǝɹıɟ uɐsǝıɹɟ


kind of like when Mine That Bird's connections had their steed run worse than he really was at Sunland (to get 50-1 instead of 25-1), Jones probably had had Friesan Fire run better than he really is during the preps to really confuse the form.

[tector]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One horse that won't be running in the Preakness is Mr. Hot Stuff. His future plans?

INGLEWOOD, Calif. - Mr. Hot Stuff has emerged from his 15th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby last weekend in good condition and is being considered for races on both coasts, trainer Eoin Harty said Thursday.

Owned by WinStar Stable, Mr. Hot Stuff is with Harty's stable at Keeneland. He could be sent to California for an allowance race or New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 6. Harty said he will assess the colt's condition before finalizing plans.
___________

Either or. Basically, no difference. I thought that was kind of funny to read.

Depending on the Belmont field, there may be no difference. Commendable's race was strictly allowance-ish.

Hell, if MTB doesn't come up and win the Derby, we have a Derby won with a 95 BSF. I see plenty of 3YO ALW races at GP that come up way stronger than that.

[tector]

PS:

Harty needs to send this horse East, regardless if it is the Belmont or another race, where he might find a decent sized field on a surface that does not invite turf pacing. While I think it is fully appreciated that poly often kills speed horses, it also negatively impacts those dependent on such speed horses battling each other--the truly deep closers like Mr. Hot Stuff.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he miraculously healed.

or..maybe they overstated the inital injury?

he didnt have any hoof injury.. just cut up his legs I guess.. lots of blood.

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

TRIVIA QUESTION
What derby favorite's normal trip should be expected to produce an 18th finish?

Answer:
ǝɹıɟ uɐsǝıɹɟ


kind of like when Mine That Bird's connections had their steed run worse than he really was at Sunland (to get 50-1 instead of 25-1), Jones probably had had Friesan Fire run better than he really is during the preps to really confuse the form.

How did you get that upside down? I tried flipping my monitor over but it didn't work.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

he didnt have any hoof injury.. just cut up his legs I guess.. lots of blood.

from bloodhorse:

Friesan Fire, who grabbed his quarter slightly and suffered several cuts while finishing 18th in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), will ship down to Pimlico next Monday from Delaware Park and will work on Tuesday under jockey Gabriel Saez to determine whether the colt will run in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I).


“It’s only an hour trip down and an hour trip back, so we’ll send him down Monday afternoon and work him Tuesday morning and then see where we stand,” trainer Larry Jones said. “He’s not a definite at this point, but he did heal up very fast and he tracked today at Delaware Park. So, we’ll see how he handles the track and what Gabriel says and then make up our mind.”


i knew i had seen that they said a grabbed quarter. i know just after the race, jones was extremely upset and angry-i thought at the time he was being overly dramatic about blood on the track, and the quarter. so, now it's a mild grab....quickly healed.