The Donn This Saturday

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree.

Maybe I am just not seeing tomorrow's races clearly but I find them very formful looking and lacking in great opportunity.

It feels like a decent day to bet a few bucks in the Pick-6 and hope for the best.

Yeah, same here. Not terribly excited about finding value in the big races. Will just watch and look for spots here or there.

You gave me an idea about the pick six. It might be worth a stab if its going to be a formful day.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

What do you feel his actual ability really is??

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Yeah, same here. Not terribly excited about finding value in the big races. Will just watch and look for spots here or there.

You gave me an idea about the pick six. It might be worth a stab if its going to be a formful day.

BTW just cut his payout in half....LOL

[Scav]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Wasn't that over two months ago? How do you bounce with two months off? I don't know how good he'll be, just seems interesting to me here and on this track.

You might be right about this, I didn't see that, I thought he was coming back off a shorter layoff....I still don't think he gets it done, unless Pletcher is smoking hot tomorrow, then he might be playable....stable runs in droves

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What do you feel his actual ability really is??

In the grand scheme of things he's obviously an extremely talented horse but against top competition I think he's severely lacking. He ran a few solid races right after Pletcher took over his training, hardly a surprise, but right now I think the best he could hope for would be dominating lessers as he did last time.

To me he has a very insignificant chance tomorrow and certainly less than his odds.

I also will be surprised if he runs more than three more races in his career.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

Unusual disances are problematic in making numbers, and do result in questionable numbers more often than traditional distances, but his raw Beyer figure for his last was much higher. However, other figure makers I respect agree with Beyer's ultimate determination.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, for the most part, the inner has been even since January 10th.

Coincidentally right after my last, and biggest, rant about it on ATRAB.

Frankly, I would like two weeks more of gold rails now, as I am running out of wide trip bet backs. Not totally however.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Scav

You might be right 4...I didn't even look at that I might be playing the wrong sequence, instead of playing 2x4x1 15 times, I might play a 4x1x3 10 times and get paid better if I can beat Royale, and I can usually beat ANY HORSE, given optimal FOCUS

I'd put Invasor in somewhere as a saver. If anyone beats Invasor they have to run a career best and hope the HOY is not up to it.

Invasor has to be in my wagers. I don't want to go deep on the pick4 because it could be chalk across. Decisions, decisions, decisions. How does one wager the final four races wisely?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

I'd put Invasor in somewhere as a saver. If anyone beats Invasor they have to run a career best and hope the HOY is not up to it.

Invasor has to be in my wagers. I don't want to go deep on the pick4 because it could be chalk across. Decisions, decisions, decisions. How does one wager the final four races wisely?

I am stubborn, I would rather toss him and hit large then use him, use up funds using him where I could be spreading, when I feel like I feel.

He could very well beat me tomorrow, and if this race were the BC Classic, Invasor would be my single, but I am thinking like an owner here, who ultimately calls the shots. Not saying he doesn't want to win, but I am sure KMc has been told MULTIPLE times how much the DWC means to him, and not to screw Invasor too tight for this race......I really think it is just to get his mind right and focused

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In the grand scheme of things he's obviously an extremely talented horse but against top competition I think he's severely lacking. He ran a few solid races right after Pletcher took over his training, hardly a surprise, but right now I think the best he could hope for would be dominating lessers as he did last time.

To me he has a very insignificant chance tomorrow and certainly less than his odds.

I also will be surprised if he runs more than three more races in his career.

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field. I can't discount his Queens County figure as his last two races his 3 yr old year he ran 106s which makes the 110 for the qns cty seem very realistic to me, bias or not.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field.

I believe he has way more downside than upside and I also don't believe the race sets up to his strengths. Chatain and Strong Contender are both improving horses and even Hesanoldsalt is improving. Magna Graduate is dressed up due to a ridiculous bias aided win and will be way overbet relative to his chances.

To me he is the horse that makes the race betable as the money on him eliminates the takeout.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I believe he has way more downside than upside and I also don't believe the race sets up to his strengths. Chatain and Strong Contender are both improving horses and even Hesanoldsalt is improving. Magna Graduate is dressed up due to a ridiculous bias aided win and will be way overbet relative to his chances.

To me he is the horse that makes the race betable as the money on him eliminates the takeout.

I dont' see Strong Contender, but his pattern suggests he is due for a good one here and they have been targeting this one. I actually picked Chatain to win, just because Invasor is too easy here. He seems to stand head and shoulders above (Invasor), good horse.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Exactly, he cruised on the lead on the inner, in a six horse field at an unusual distance. I don't trust the figure at all and expect he'll run back like he usually does.

If you haven't read Picking Winners and Beyer on Speed, you are doing your self a disservice. Both books are well written and they are entertaining. Beyer explains exactly how the figures are made. Once you understand the logic in how the figs are made, it's a lot easier to discard races which you disagree with. The numbers are only a measure of final race time and when sometimes projections involved in formulating the figs. That's why it is wise to save charts from the circuit you follow and keep tabs on how horses run going forward. Unstanding how the figs helped me a great deal in handicapping races.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pick4

If you haven't read Picking Winners and Beyer on Speed, you are doing your self a disservice. Both books are well written and they are entertaining. Beyer explains exactly how the figures are made. Once you understand the logic in how the figs are made, it's a lot easier to discard races which you disagree with. The numbers are only a measure of final race time and when sometimes projections involved in formulating the figs. That's why it is wise to save charts from the circuit you follow and keep tabs on how horses run going forward. Unstanding how the figs helped me a great deal in handicapping races.

I read those books many many moons ago. I agree that they are excellent books and I would recommend then to anyone getting into the sport. To be honest I think Picking Winners is what got me hooked on racing and handicapping. That and a horse called Affirmed

I am slightly puzzled as to why you are recommending them to me? What was it about my post that made you think that I hadn't yet read them?

[pick4]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field. I can't discount his Queens County figure as his last two races his 3 yr old year he ran 106s which makes the 110 for the qns cty seem very realistic to me, bias or not.

He set an uncontested pace in the Queens County. :24 :48 1:12 1:37 through a mile. When a runner can set a pace that he or she is well within ability to handle, they will be able to finish in optimal time.

If you workout and either run outside or on a treadmill ,test yourself at different paces. Try fast early ,then next time go slow early. After running a 7 or 8 minute mile you might be puffing hard. I know I am. If I run a 9 or 10 minute mile I can easily sprint a half mile in 4 minutes. If I run an 8 minute mile, it's much more difficult to maintain that pace.

I think the same thing applys to horses. Easy maintainable rate of speed will result in maximum performance. Faster earlier rates will result in fatigue and deceleration of speed as distance increases.

[sumitas]

it's a speed bias track so Hesanoldsalt has a shot.

[AeWingnut]

Invasor looks like a mortal lock
he's a single in the Magna pick 5

Everyone else is running for place money

Tap Dancing Mauk could complete the Superfecta

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

Let me take a shot at a ML...

1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L 3/5
2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L 30/1
3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L 12/1
4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L 8/1
5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L 50/1
6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L 20/1
7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L 9/2
8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L 40/1
9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L 7/2

Gander, are you predicting how the betting will go, or is that an estimate of "fair odds"?

Here's my preliminary fair odds line:

PP# Horse Fair odds
1 Invasor 1-1
2 Halos Sailing Sain 60
3 AP Arrow 15
4 Chatain 10
5 Tap Dancing Mauk 125
6 Hesanoldsalt 12
7 Magna Grad 15
8 Barcola 15
9 Strong contender 10

IMO Invasor has about a 50% chance to win the race. If he has half the money in the win pool bet on him, he will be bet down to around 3-5. If he gets bet down further than that, I think he becomes a bet-against.

Anyone else think Barcola, shedding 14 lbs from his last race, is worth a look if 25-1?

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Strong Contender is scratched.