Invasor 1 to 9

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Invasor's trip was perfect up to the point where he had to wait a second. That cost him nothing more than a length or so in my opinion. He was the best horse in the race, was more set to run than I figured he would be, and won like he was supposed to.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.

Agree. Also see where someone mentions Afleet Alex' Preakness. I don't know about u but I thought that stumble was overrated too. It happened so quickly that Alex never lost momentum. I was grilled for saying that I didn't think that incident cost him any more than a length or so that day.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Here are Beyers from Saturday at GP and SA.

Spin Master, 99
Keyed Entry, 105
Adore the Gold, 102
Sweet Return, 104
Giant Wrecker, 103
Naissance Royale, 98
Invasor, 109
Arsen Squad, 104
Ravel, 102
Curlin, 101
Nobiz Like Shobiz, 98

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

His 'turn of foot' was achieved in a race where they were crawling home. The last 3/8ths in 38 seconds, last 1/8th in 12.3. The very next race a 100-1 shot ran his last 3/8ths in 36.4 and his last 1/8th in 12.2 going the same distance.

In essence the other horses were stopping so badly he looked like he was closing fast, which he wasn't. He is a very good horse who overcame trouble to swamp a bunch of listed type horse. No more, no less.

Had stopped for a bite to eat on way home, and was reviewing the charts for the day. Was startled by the numbers I saw and pointed out above. I don't think it's possible to give a more succinct overview of what we saw in the Donn than that above by C.S.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

Jara wouldn't have been in position to BE boxed in or clip heels if he had taken the path of least resistence that Invasor has prefered in virtually all his North American starts/wins... And that is to float 3 or so paths off the inside and swing around the leaders and storm home.

And since you mention Zito, he said that he also thought 'Salt' had a shot just after the eighth pole. He said had one of the other horses approaching the leaders assumed the spot being vacated by one of the tiring pacesetters, Invasor may have found no room at all to get through. He laughingly acknowledged it would have been the only way to have come away with a win Saturday.

But he was THRILLED with the 2nd, as was owner Charlotte Weber (who had been very disappointed by Miesque's Approval 90 minutes earlier).

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Nice work, DrugS! None off by more than 1 except for Curlin's which was off by 2.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

[Linny]

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

At this time last year, I had 'Salt on my "Derby Dozen" and at least feel somewhat vindicated by his recent development. When doing my list I try to focus only on what I see, not on any opinions/comments from trainers. I try not to focus only on those trained by people I know. I spoke to Nick last summer about 'Salt and he told me that had I asked him, I would not have had the colt so high. He (horse) was very nervous and edgy, talented by immature. He was settling in well by the time he got to the Spa.

The horse that surprised me (pleasantly) was Chatain. At the top of the lane I thought he might win it.

[SniperSB23]

Blackthroatedwind, I'm curious as to how you assessed the track yesterday in regards to the bias. I can certainly buy that the rail was incredibly kind to horses going into the stretch but I have a tough time believing that the rail was golden in the stretch when the horse that opened the most ground in the stretch was Curlin who was nowhere near the rail. Did we see an otherworldly performance by Curlin or was the bias not as pronounced as people are making it out to be?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Once again, the sheer negativity, which Byk has discussed rears its ugly head in this thread. Trying to take something away from a horse is pretty much par for the course for many on here....But last I looked this horse has nothing left to prove. Was his Pim Special no good, or the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Whitney....Would you like him to fly from the gate with wings. His race was impressive today. Period.

There is no negativity but an objective anaysis of the race. No one is taking anything away from him but as I pointed out trying to use facts and common sense the performance was simply pretty good. If you do not agree then it is your opinion but there is no negativity on my part. If it would make you happy then I will say that was one of the greatest races I have ever seen and it takes horses like AP Arrow and Hesanoldsalt to really bring out Invasors greatness.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but didn't when Invasor clipped heels and almost go down kinda remind y'all of Afleet Alex in the Preakness a little bit? What a horse!

Invasor was steadied, his head never went down and never appeared to be in danger of going down. It looked worse than it was because Jara pulled back suddenly as the 2 stopped badly and the fact that he had the horses head turned to the inside makes it look bad. Watch the race without the announcers hysterics. Slow it down and see that he never bobbles, his head pops up because of Jara.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

He was hit at least 4 times between the 1/4 pole and 1/16 th pole. He was hand ridden the last 40 yards.

[Antitrust32]

did anyone watch the race on hrtv? The announcer said look at that final time 1:39!

I couldnt believe it my friend I was watching it was like.. well he must have broke the track record by 8 seconds. LOL

Stupid hrtv guys...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Blackthroatedwind, I'm curious as to how you assessed the track yesterday in regards to the bias. I can certainly buy that the rail was incredibly kind to horses going into the stretch but I have a tough time believing that the rail was golden in the stretch when the horse that opened the most ground in the stretch was Curlin who was nowhere near the rail. Did we see an otherworldly performance by Curlin or was the bias not as pronounced as people are making it out to be?

I don't think it was a gold rail, or even really close, but I suppose it was probably the best path and that is reasonably validated by some earlier results. However, I don't think the rail skewed the results particularly. I will say that making up considerable ground wasn't easy, however in a race like the feature, with a $10K claimer setting the pace, it is impossible for the speeds to hold.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think it was a gold rail, or even really close, but I suppose it was probably the best path and that is reasonably validated by some earlier results. However, I don't think the rail skewed the results particularly. I will say that making up considerable ground wasn't easy, however in a race like the feature, with a $10K claimer setting the pace, it is impossible for the speeds to hold.

Thanks, yeah that purchase by Reddam just keeps looking worse and worse.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

i watched the replay 4 more times and i count maybe 3 seconds, he was riding right up until maybe a second before he tried to steer him to the inside

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

i watched the replay 4 more times and i count maybe 3 seconds, he was riding right up until maybe a second before he tried to steer him to the inside

cannon he was in a drive and if he would have been able to find room to the outside he could have continued the drive and moved on by quite easily, however he ran out of room and Jara had to stop the drive and just coast, waiting for room. that is where i came up with eleven seconds.
yes he was still riding, but he was not running his race at his speed during this time. maybe I'm the only person that looks at it this way. its the length of time that the horse was prohibited from running like he can.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

did anyone watch the race on hrtv? The announcer said look at that final time 1:39!

I couldnt believe it my friend I was watching it was like.. well he must have broke the track record by 8 seconds. LOL

Stupid hrtv guys...

i did.
have to admit i was waiting for 'and that's a new record' the way he said the time!! sarcasm maybe?

[Pointg5]

Good performance, not great, saved ground, had trouble and beat an average field...

I really like this horse, he came back from Dubai in good shape last year, I hope he can do it again...