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#162
09-11-2012, 07:01 PM
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First of all Doug, I would like to congratulate you on a job well done. I kind of underestimated what an undertaking I had signed up for when I agreed to track the losses involved in this challenge, but it was fun and I'm glad to have been along for the ride.
Up to and including Mom Proof, today's bums had a total of $1,619 bet on them which brings the final total to $472,633. Today's win yielded a total payout of $20,135.50, which cut the total lost to $452,497.50, or a $2 ROI of $0.08. Based on flat bets, the ROI on the 480 horses was $0.16. I will try to do an epilogue at some point with more detailed information but that will be a massive undertaking so it might take a while. 
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#163
09-11-2012, 07:12 PM
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amazing thread and effort on your part. enjoyed reading it as it unfolded, and hate to see it end-altho i can understand you being glad it's done. i thought this would be the harder of the two halves...percentage-wise, it turned out to be. interesting all the same-and i was hoping you could manage to do both!
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#164
09-11-2012, 07:23 PM
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It seemed like lately you were perhaps fatigued of this and going through the motions, instead of being anally disciplined like usual.
And by anally disciplined, I am not referring to your experience with MTConverse. Last edited by Indian Charlie : 09-11-2012 at 07:37 PM.
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#165
09-11-2012, 08:27 PM
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I was starting to get worn down between all of the handicapping, betting, figure making, working for the newspaper for Masters and PID Mile Week, and doing some other crazy track diagram task.
However, I don't really regret taking that horse. Serling has a saying "bad horses win bad races" that I always thought was a little too generic ... but this race was the ultimate example of that. I did tell you over the phone a week or two ago how the majority of the very few horses that have stepped up and surprised me in this challenge have been horses switching from journeyman riders to 7lbs bugs. Not only do the bug riders get a weight break -- but the vet jocks tend to mail it in a bit on these type of horses in cheaper races. Some of these 7lbs bugs will ride these horses with Calvin Borel in the Kentucky Derby like desperation. This bum winner today, the horse looked like he had no chance on the turn, and he bravely drove him through a narrow opening and came up the rail to win a 3-way photo.
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#167
09-11-2012, 08:40 PM
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One of the bums just finished 7th beaten 52 lengths at 28/1. At least it wasn't the shortest price one of the day that knocked me out. 5/1 was the shortest price of any horse during this entire challenge.
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#171
09-12-2012, 06:06 AM
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Doug.. (and ranger),
Great try. It was a fascinating endeavor and fun to watch. And ranger -- tabbing the dollar loss was an amazing sidebar. What can be gleaned from the exercise with 479 out of 480 hopeless looking horses losing? There must be common denominators... a tick list that eliminates longshots with no chance whatsoever from those with a shot...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#174
09-12-2012, 03:49 PM
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Like with anything else in wagering and investment -- it boils down to value. You never know what price a horse will go off at until betting has closed in pari-mutual wagering. In betting exchanges it is much more simple, because you're locked in at your price when you bet on or bet against a horse. Amazingly, some of these horses went off at relatively insanely low odds. The lowest went off at 5.4-to-1 odds -- but I think two or three others also went off at single digits. Quite a few of them went off at odds in the 11-to-1 to 20-to-1 odds range. An interesting challenge would be one called 'pick 480 horses who look like longshots and are competitive' Based on the two studies I did in this Contest folder -- my standout of the day won at 87.5% and my Bum List horses won at 0.21% From now on, when I make a value line for a race I intend to bet, if a horse looks like a major standout I will assign it no higher than an 88% chance of winning. If it looks like a Bum -- I will assign it a 0.20% chance. As always -- the odds you can get will dictate your decision.
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#176
09-14-2012, 01:01 AM
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I would have no problem trying to pick 10 straight winners again -- I'd rather be waterboarded at Guantanamo than to try to pick 1,000 losers again.
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#177
09-14-2012, 02:35 AM
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