TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Hofburg had a brutal ride in the Derby...and was still running hard at the end. There’s definitely a lot to like but if he’s going off as the 2nd choice then I don’t know. I’d probably lean toward Tenfold and Blended Citizen as better values.

There was nothing wrong with his ride in the Derby. Mediocre trips aren't always rider's faults.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

It's turned into that by misuse.....sort of like the subversion of the word "value" in racing. A horse doesn't have value just because it's a big price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There was nothing wrong with his ride in the Derby. Mediocre trips aren't always rider's faults.

You’re right. I meant to say brutal trip and didn’t mean to cast blame on the rider. I don’t think there was much the rider could have done to make it better.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Agreed, though I think he’s a serious racehorse.

I think Free Drop Billy sucks.

Agree.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

He trains the horses. He doesn't own them (at least these). Owner Gary West wants to run Restoring Hope. And he's not a guy to argue with.

I assume this has happened before in the Belmont but its still strange to me. I understand training multiples for the Derby but its not reality to think that B.B doesn't want Justify to win. Its not like he is sending a rabbit for him to close in to. I'm sure he will be happy if R.H wins but not as happy the other way around.

Interesting none the less and I would like to hear that post race press conference.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think that Blended Citizen might also be a candidate for that role having already won a race at Belmont (please note that I did not use the term "wise guy" )

The "smart guy" horse to use underneath Justify I totally agree!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

The definition hasn't changed....it's been subverted by people using the term inaccurately.

Been meaning to ask, how's your former protégé KYRIM?

[declansharbor]

Blended Citizen with a SHARP bullet workout @ Belmont this weekend.

[Alabama Stakes]

Maybe he will be the wise guy Hoss in the Belmont. The first wise guy hoss that I remember was McKenzie Bridge in the Belmont against Bold Forbes in 76. He was flying late and almost got up at a big price. I think this Belmont could be a similar type race with Justify on the engine 5 or 6 in front, though not necessarily in the 8 path. I'd be surprised if he didn't widen his lead and win by many but they could run in late.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I think this Belmont could be a similar type race with Justify on the engine 5 or 6 in front

It might be 10+ open if something with some gas doesn't appear in the entry box.

[Merlinsky]

So what was up with that work by Blended Citizen? http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42870-bl...belmont-stakes

[moses]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

So what was up with that work by Blended Citizen? http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42870-bl...belmont-stakes

Yeesh. I like Blended Citizen for this race but may have to re-evaluate.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Yeesh. I like Blended Citizen for this race but may have to re-evaluate.

Doesn’t seem as troublesome as I first thought. BC looked good in those 5 furlongs.

[moses]

Out of curiosity, does anyone give any weight to Jody Demling? I always see CBS bragging about his record but it seems like a lot of fluff and hype.

[Kasept]

1. Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado) 30-1
3. Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) 8-1
4. Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 9-2
5. Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Giroux) 30-1
6. Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7. Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 12-1
8. Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 8-1
9. Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
10. Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey) 15-1

[raininthrees]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1. Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado) 30-1
3. Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) 8-1
4. Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 9-2
5. Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Giroux) 30-1
6. Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7. Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 12-1
8. Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 8-1
9. Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
10. Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey) 15-1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiKcd7yPLdU

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1. Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Alvarado) 30-1
3. Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) 8-1
4. Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 9-2
5. Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Giroux) 30-1
6. Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) 12-1
7. Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 12-1
8. Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 8-1
9. Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
10. Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey) 15-1

Dale was in fine form for the post-draw panel. They were all great, but him in particular. If NBC's coverage of horse racing started off with a tight 5min from Dale Romans, I think you'd see a definite boost to the numbers.

[FATPIANO]

Dale has FDB ready to run the race of his life. 3 bullets in his holster. And he is not gonna be wide this time. Watch out. He I a very real love longshot to juice up the exotics.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by moses

Doesn’t seem as troublesome as I first thought. BC looked good in those 5 furlongs.

During the work, sure, wouldn't have noticed anything amiss, but I never love hearing that description for how a horse wraps up their work. Is there a scenario where it's actually indicative of something positive or at least not negative? Of course Doug's gonna say it's fine. Could be, but eh.

Any thoughts on Hofburg yesterday? Seemed to recover his stride from that stumble (about 32 sec in on this footage), but you don't love the disruption. https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status...36720482926592