Show Parlay

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by jman5581

GG R1 - #3 Court the King SCR

HOL R2 - #1 Tates Queen

Tates Queen was 2nd paid $3.40 - Running Total = $255

[jman5581]

CD R9 - 6 Spritely

GG R1 - 4 Doalittleraindance

HOL R1 - 3 River Echo

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by jman5581

CD R9 - 6 Spritely

GG R1 - 4 Doalittleraindance

HOL R1 - 3 River Echo

Botched the order of these...

Doalittleraindance WON and paid $2.80 - Running Total = $357

Spritely WON and paid $2.80 - Running Total = $500

I just want to go on the record and say that I probably would take $400 off the table here and start a new round if I were playing with my own money... but, nonetheless, 10 picks it is.

[jman5581]

River Echo WON and paid $2.60 - Running Total = $650

need 4 more to make it ten.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

River Echo WON and paid $2.60 - Running Total = $650

need 4 more to make it ten.

Okay, but we're going to remember that you ran when it was $500! ;>)

(Meanwhile, Dunbar sits patiently on his own undefeated 1-race show parley win streak, not even tempted to pocket his $5 profit.)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

I just want to go on the record and say that I probably would take $400 off the table here and start a new round if I were playing with my own money... but, nonetheless, 10 picks it is.

If the show parlay idea is a profitable ploy, it shouldn't matter what kind of cutoff you use. It either works or it doesn't. You could have set a $400 profit/parlay as your bailout goal, or you could have set a 6-race limit. For that matter, you could have set it up so that you decided each time when to bail out. I know I'm just stating the obvious.

In fact, the best way to look at your results would be to simply take all your show bets as individual bets and see if they were profitable ovarall. (by "best way", I mean the way that would give us the best idea about whether you could turn a profit with the parlay approach.) But doing the test as a 10-race parlay is certainly a lot more fun.

One nice thing about this thread is that if either of us is motivated, we could do just that--go back and make a simple list of all the show bets to see what kind of overall return you got.

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

A quartet of what I think are good favorites to finish off the round...

1:06 CD R4 - Classic Campaign

3:31 HOL R3 - 4 Sir Lowry

4:34 HOL R5 - 4 Silver Stetson Man

6:07 HOL R8 - 3 Hucking Hot

[jman5581]

Dunbar,

I plan on going back at the end of this and seeing what limits, if any, would have achieved a profit. And I agree, it's pretty fun to shoot for a mark! 10 may be a little high, although I still feel someone as patient as yourself might be able to do that by being more selective about where you place your bets. But, I think you should make a couple of picks for today because there are a couple to pick from...

So, in the end, what you're really saying is.... if it works, you ought to be able to make money at it? Very good point indeed!!

Hopefully I can get one round finished today. If not, oh well...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

So, in the end, what you're really saying is.... if it works, you ought to be able to make money at it? Very good point indeed!!

heh heh, it did sound like that, didn't it?! But what I'm saying is that putting show bets into a parlay will have no effect on whether you make money in the long run. If you can't make money on the individual show bets you are using, then you will not be able to construct a parlay that will make money, except as a fluke result.

That's assuming that you don't change the way you pick your show bets according to how many successes you've had in the current parlay. If you DO get more selective or less selective after you win a few, then what I said above isn't true.

btw, without looking at the PP's, I see that Hucking Hot is just a lukewarm 5-2 morning line fav in your final pick of the series. (3 other horses are 4-1 or less.) Are you sure you're not just loving the name? ;>)

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

btw, without looking at the PP's, I see that Hucking Hot is just a lukewarm 5-2 morning line fav in your final pick of the series. (3 other horses are 4-1 or less.) Are you sure you're not just loving the name? ;>)

--Dunbar

No, I actually like Hucking Hot to be in the top half of this field. Even though she's coming off a layoff she's proven the ability to fire first asking in the past. And on class alone, I like her 5th and 4th place finishes in the G3 Miesque and G1 Hollywood Starlet. I have no qualms giving a gallagher horse the nod coming off of layoff when they're working well. FWIW...

Jman

[Dunbar]

Okay, I just went through and added up all your individual payoffs! Pretty impressive.

I see 102 bets so far. And, amazingly enough, you have gotten back $204.30 in $2 payoffs. A 30c profit may not seem like much to get excited about, but you've overcome the 14-19% track take (and breakage takes a big toll on show bets, too). You're doing way better than most here would have predicted.

Because the payoffs on show bets are so low, a result like yours is a lot more meaningful than if someone made 102 $2 win bets. I'll be interested to see if you can stay close to even for the rest of the run.

Now the bad news. I think you are now on Round 17, not Round 16. I think you did Round 9 or 10 twice. Go back and see if you agree. (I think the horse Cruisin On ended Round 9 and Carlow ended what should have been Round 10, but you started another Round 10.)

Bottom line, if you had bet $100 on each of your horses to show, you'd have a $15 profit (50 * 0.30) instead of a $1600 loss so far. (well, actually a $1050 loss, if you count your current $650 bankroll).

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

I'll be darn... I did do Rd 9 twice!! Good catch on that one. That does make this Rd 17, not Rd 16. Honest mistake on my part.

I'll try to keep up the pace I've set so far...

And thanks for going back and tabulating all my chicken scratch... you da man Dunbar!

[jman5581]

...

Originally Posted by jman5581

1:06 CD R4 - Classic Campaign 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $683

3:31 HOL R3 - 4 Sir Lowry

4:34 HOL R5 - 4 Silver Stetson Man

6:07 HOL R8 - 3 Hucking Hot

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

...3:31 HOL R3 - 4 Sir Lowry

Comes in 3rd, pays $2.20.

8 down, 2 to go. Who'd 've thought show bets could be this exciting! ;>)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

...4:34 HOL R5 - 4 Silver Stetson Man

Comes in 3rd, pays $2.10!

One to go...

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I see 102 bets so far. And, amazingly enough, you have gotten back $204.30 in $2 payoffs. A 30c profit may not seem like much to get excited about, but you've overcome the 14-19% track take (and breakage takes a big toll on show bets, too). You're doing way better than most here would have predicted.

Bottom line, if you had bet $100 on each of your horses to show, you'd have a $15 profit (50 * 0.30) instead of a $1600 loss so far. (well, actually a $1050 loss, if you count your current $650 bankroll).

Here's some more info on your individual bet results. When you forged $0.30 ahead (on flat $2 bets) yesterday, it was the first time you'd been ahead since your 21st bet back in May (during Round 4!). The most you were ever ahead (on $2 bets) was $2.20. The most you were ever behind (on $2 bets) was $7.70.

So if you had bet $100 to show on each of your picks through yesterday's, you would never have been more than $385 behind. That compares favorably with the -$1600 that you began Round 17 with!

While it might seem like the parlay is a good way to get a lot of action out of $100, it ends up being a much more volatile way to bet your money. On the other hand, I'll agree it's way more exciting than flat-betting $100!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

HOL R8 - 3 Hucking Hot

And the 10th race in the round is a























win! Hucking Hot finishes 1st (nice patient ride by Gomez), paying $3.00 to show.

You got one, jman!

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Yesssssss!!! It feels good just to complete ONE! Took 17 tries...much more than I thought it would've.

If my math is right...


3:31 HOL R3 - 4 Sir Lowry - 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $751

4:34 HOL R5 - 4 Silver Stetson Man - 3rd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $789

6:07 HOL R8 - 3 Hucking Hot - WON paid $3.00 - Running Total = $1,184

That makes a dent in the loss so far... instead of $1600, the loss is now only $416. One more good round and I could be up before you know it.

On to Round 18...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

Yesssssss!!! It feels good just to complete ONE! Took 17 tries...much more than I thought it would've.

If my math is right...


3:31 HOL R3 - 4 Sir Lowry - 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $751

4:34 HOL R5 - 4 Silver Stetson Man - 3rd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $789

6:07 HOL R8 - 3 Hucking Hot - WON paid $3.00 - Running Total = $1,184

That makes a dent in the loss so far... instead of $1600, the loss is now only $416. One more good round and I could be up before you know it.

On to Round 18...

Good persistance, jman! However, your $1184 final bankroll means you won $1084, which in turn means you are $516 in the hole, not $416.

Hey, anyway, weren't you ready to pocket the $400 profit from Round 16 after 6 bets? You'd have missed out on the "extra" $684! (You knew I was going to bring that up again, didn't you.)

Good luck on #18.

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good persistance, jman! However, your $1184 final bankroll means you won $1084, which in turn means you are $516 in the hole, not $416.

Hey, anyway, weren't you ready to pocket the $400 profit from Round 16 after 6 bets? You'd have missed out on the "extra" $684! (You knew I was going to bring that up again, didn't you.)

Good luck on #18.

--Dunbar

It's late, okay? hahahahaha Thanks for keeping me in line.