Thank You Mine That Bird - Page 9

CSC · #**161** 05-03-2009, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

I agree. He was 99-1 at William Hill in the U.K. But lets not forget the makeup of the crowd on Derby Day; many of whom cannot read a DRF or track program past performance. Let's not forget Rick's Natural Star was only 50-1 in the BC Turf a few years ago and actually had more win money than a Grade 1 winning Marlin.

True, RNS was just silly. He and his owner Dr. Livingston or whatever his name was got alot of PR before the race. In this case I think this was more an extreme case, I understand the alot of non regular fans bet the derby, but to bet him down to 50-1, that is alot of money. Who bet him? Certainly no one on this board did, if so I didn't see anyone even remotely tout him.

blackthroatedwind · #**162** 05-03-2009, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

On the turn the only other horse that dropped down to the rail was Atomic Rain, a horse that even the rail could not assist.

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

Danzig · #**163** 05-03-2009, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thats what makes it even more amazing. He had never been a one run closer prior to this race. He had always been within 3 lengths of the lead by the halfway call in all of his races except his maiden...even in the BC race where he got thumped.

i was going by what his trainer said, that the horse makes one move.

Bobby Fischer · #**164** 05-03-2009, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

I didn't play POTN, I understand a price and know that only a douche nozzle touts a horse for 2 weeks watches him run18th then says he had the impossible 50-1 shot but only could use him 3rd or 4th. But of course the race was an anomaly

having a horse for 3rd or 4th is not "having him".

1st and 2nd is a different world from 3rd and 4th in the derby.

the race was an anamoly. anyone can see that who watches the video in the context of this years 3yo season, or even in the context of this decades derbys.

Friesan Fire looked MUCH the best to me in my handicapping. Supposedly his injuries and rough trip hurt him, I haven't had a chance to review his trip yet. I was completely surprised that he didn't win, much less finish in the money. The reason a horseplayer only bets between 2 and 10% of his bankroll per race is that any single race can be an anamoly. It is the long haul that matters.

I'll gladly admit that Friesan Fire was my confident selection. And equally so that Pioneer of the Nile wasn't used 1st or 2nd other than coverage wagers.

#**165** 05-03-2009, 11:26 AM

It definitely wasn't a "KING OF THE WORLD !one!!!oneone!!!" moment.

lord007 · #**166** 05-03-2009, 11:32 AM

Im done with 20 horse fields.....

Bobby Fischer · #**167** 05-03-2009, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider.

I thought you were supposed to be the expert on race set up.

I guess the horse masqueraded as a trips expert and held himself wayyyy off the pace and then gambled that there would be room on the rail and closed inside.

of course the idea that the rail was some kind of conveyor belt is ridiculous

the question is whether they went to fast up front opening the race for a closer and whether he saved ground.

golfer · #**168** 05-03-2009, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

I thought the rail was the place to be the entire day, not just the Derby. Considering that Borel was able to move up from last on the rail, except for having to leave it to go around Advice, I believe, for the most part, the other horses weren't running on it.

Race 1: Raposa, gate to wire, rail.

Race 2: Riley Tucker, gate to wire, rail.

Race 3: Luv Gov, closed up the inside.

Race 4: Glenwood Canyon, stalking trip from the rail.

Race 6: Accredit, gate to wire, rail.

The best effort yesterday off the rail, in my opinion, was Just Jenda, who ran out of gas late, beaten by Four Gifts, who came up the rail.

blackthroatedwind · #**169** 05-03-2009, 11:38 AM

I hear you, and you have certainly analyzed it FAR better than I have, I just think it detracts a bit from the winner's " performance " to suggest ( not that you were ) that it was a rail driven performance. I had the same discussion with Beyer this morning....and he is on your side.

the_fat_man · #**170** 05-03-2009, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Race 4: Glenwood Canyon, stalking trip from the rail.

Didn't this horse come off the rail before the turn?

Also, the winner of the 12th, I believe, had an inside trip as well.

parsixfarms · #**171** 05-03-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

I'm not sure that we really disagree that much. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird won the race BECAUSE of a rail bias. A bias is not going to make winners out of all horses, only those that run and are able to make use of the advantageous conditions. Mine That Bird likely won because he liked the off going, and he got a fortuitous trip, and there was not a lot of running going on from the other 18 starters in the field, and the rail was the place to be.

When I conclude that the rail was the place to be yesterday, just take a look at the chart comments on the winners of the dirt races: Raposa "set pace along the inside"; Riley Tucker "set pace along the inside"; Luv Gov "saved ground" and won with an inside-out move; Glenwood Canyon "close up while racing inside"; Accredit "rated vying for the lead near the rail" with My Pal Charlie the only closer to make up ground late - again inside; Four Gifts "angled in" during the first furlong and also won with and inside-out trip. I could go on, but I think you get the point.

CSC · #**172** 05-03-2009, 11:41 AM

If I were looking for overlays for future races, I would be looking at yesterday's card and trying to pinpoint horses with wide trips on the dirt course for future reference.

blackthroatedwind · #**173** 05-03-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not sure that we really disagree that much. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird won the race BECAUSE of a rail bias. A bias is not going to make winners out of all horses, only those that run and are able to make use of the advantageous conditions. Mine That Bird likely won because he liked the off going, and he got a fortuitous trip, and there was not a lot of running going on from the other 18 starters in the field, and the rail was the place to be.

When I conclude that the rail was the place to be yesterday, just take a look at the chart comments on the winners of the dirt races: Raposa "set pace along the inside"; Riley Tucker "set pace along the inside"; Luv Gov "saved ground" and won with an inside-out move; Glenwood Canyon "close up while racing inside"; Accredit "rated vying for the lead near the rail" with My Pal Charlie the only closer to make up ground late - again inside; Four Gifts "angled in" during the first furlong and also won with and inside-out trip. I could go on, but I think you get the point.

I'm with you.

golfer · #**174** 05-03-2009, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

If I were looking for overlays for future races, I would be looking at yesterday's card and trying to pinpoint horses with wide trips on the dirt course for future reference.

Absolutely!

alysheba4 · #**175** 05-03-2009, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

What if one of the more "logical" horses had won this race, the same way as Mine that Bird did? I'm talking about one of the 3 superstars (Friesan Fire, Pioneer and the allowance winner Dunkirk). What if their jockey made the same move as Borel did and won as emphatically?

Would we be hearing a bunch of whining and ridiculing or rather talk of the first triple crown winner in 30+ years looming?

....great point, you know we would........it would be funny as hell if the bird wins the preakness and is shooting 4 the triple crown..

Danzig · #**176** 05-03-2009, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

Still waiting to hear your derby bets.....

sumitas · #**177** 05-03-2009, 11:59 AM

It was odd seeing the crew pulling 2x4s with sand bags on them over the track . This track was not formful. At least not with 20 horses entered . MTB jumped up on it and shocked .

Danzig · #**178** 05-03-2009, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

It was odd seeing the crew pulling 2x4s with sand bags on them over the track . This track was not formful. At least not with 20 horses entered . MTB jumped up on it and shocked .

which is why i think it's funny that the POTN fans are pointing at the race as some indication of what he can do. evidently it proves his prowess, but no one else's.

MaTH716 · #**179** 05-03-2009, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

And still waiting......

Funny how as soon as I ask you about your genius plays I can't find you with a posse.

You do know that the guy gives his opinions on a daily basis, right?

Bobby Fischer · #**180** 05-03-2009, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

And still waiting......

Funny how as soon as I ask you about your genius plays I can't find you with a posse.

Why in the world, unless you have a personal agenda with BTW, would you care what someone plays in a race that you yourself called a toss?

If the race was in your words "a toss", "nothing like the kentucky derby", "like a mountaineer claiming race", "very unusual IYO"
why in ****s name do you care what that guy picked?