2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

And Irad gets on Improbable

Hmm. Is Baffert that down on Van Dyke after the Rebel loss? Irad may be the better jockey...I don’t know...but I didn’t think Baffert teamed up with the Ortiz brothers too often.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Will money mike stick with the red and white of fox hill farm ? Or go for Roadster ?

I don’t see how he gets off OB. Roadster’s win was not as impressive as OB’s, in my opinion.

As for Gray Magician, I wonder why Prat hasn’t been announced. Maybe Prat has a chance at Roadster?

[jms62]

So rooting for Money Mike to make Baffert rue the day he decided that he was no longer his go to guy on Derby Trail horses.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

So rooting for Money Mike to make Baffert rue the day he decided that he was no longer his go to guy on Derby Trail horses.

Baffert used the younger (physically stronger) guys on those horses in those spots for a reason. Smith understands that.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Baffert used the younger (physically stronger) guys on those horses in those spots for a reason. Smith understands that.

Was Mike on any Baffert horses this Derby season? Mike is politically savy enough not to go to war and in his quiet and classy way show he is strong enough to win yet another Derby and the wind up is Baffert made a bad choice. My opinion of course.

[ElPrado]

Looks like Fox Hill.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Was Mike on any Baffert horses this Derby season? Mike is politically savy enough not to go to war and in his quiet and classy way show he is strong enough to win yet another Derby and the wind up is Baffert made a bad choice. My opinion of course.

Derby season Baffert/Smith: Roadster (who he was on from the start and was considered the barn's best 2yo), Much Better, Coliseum. Rosario had Game Winner early on. Van Dyke had Improbable. Prat rode Dessman. Talamo on Mucho Gusto.

Beyond the 3yo boys, Smith has McKinzie, Dream Tree, Chasing Yesterday.

There's no story to manufacture here.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Derby season Baffert/Smith: Roadster (who he was on from the start and was considered the barn's best 2yo), Much Better, Coliseum. Rosario had Game Winner early on. Van Dyke had Improbable. Prat rode Dessman. Talamo on Mucho Gusto.

Beyond the 3yo boys, Smith has McKinzie, Dream Tree, Chasing Yesterday.

There's no story to manufacture here.

on me for forgetting Baffert trained Roadster.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by moses

I don’t see how he gets off OB. Roadster’s win was not as impressive as OB’s, in my opinion.

As for Gray Magician, I wonder why Prat hasn’t been announced. Maybe Prat has a chance at Roadster?

He has to ride Roadster. I don't think it's that tough a choice.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

He has to ride Roadster. I don't think it's that tough a choice.

Kind of cinches it, right? Omaha Beach it is!

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Kind of cinches it, right? Omaha Beach it is!

My opinion Ohama Beach may be pace compromised and Roadster would have best chance...

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Kind of cinches it, right? Omaha Beach it is!

Who would you ride, considering everything?

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by jms62

My opinion Ohama Beach may be pace compromised and Roadster would have best chance...

That's only part of it, but I did factor that in.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by ElPrado

Looks like Fox Hill.

He does have history with them.
It would be cool to go to the sales with whomever picks out their stock. What an eye for horses.
Omaha Beach has proven his ability to do what Smith asks. I think he has confidence in that colt.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

My opinion Ohama Beach may be pace compromised and Roadster would have best chance...

If there is a contested pace and things fall apart, I don’t think Roadster is the most likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think he likes getting dirt in his face and it wasn’t until he dropped back and then swung wide that he really started to run in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s unlikely he’ll have the space to do that in a 20-horse field. And I’m still not certain that questions about his medical issues have been fully resolved. I’m looking at Tacitus and Code of Honor if the pace is right.

Just my opinion, but Roadster is ranked 3rd for me of the Baffert horses and probably somewhere in the 8-15 range in the overall Derby field.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

If there is a contested pace and things fall apart, I don’t think Roadster is the most likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think he likes getting dirt in his face and it wasn’t until he dropped back and then swung wide that he really started to run in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s unlikely he’ll have the space to do that in a 20-horse field. And I’m still not certain that questions about his medical issues have been fully resolved. I’m looking at Tacitus and Code of Honor if the pace is right.

Just my opinion, but Roadster is ranked 3rd for me of the Baffert horses and probably somewhere in the 8-15 range in the overall Derby field.

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

[Holybull1]

Bovada as of 4/16/2019:

Roadster 5
Omaha Beach 5.5
Game Winner 6
Improbable 8
Maximum Security 10
Tacitus 12
Vekoma 12
Code of Honor 14
Cutting Humor 20
Bourbon War 22
War of Will 22
Win Win Win 22
Anothertwistafate 25
By My Standards 25
Haikal 25
Long Range Toddy 25
Plus Que Parfait 25
Tax 25
Bodexpress 28
Country House 33
Spinoff 33
Signalman 40
Master Fencer 66
Sueno 66

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Who would you ride, considering everything?

Omaha Beach.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

He could be the best of the 3. I’m not sure about him being the best by far. He beat Game Winner by 1/2 a length and Game Winner was wide the entire race.

When it comes down to it, I’m just not a fan of horses in the Derby who plan to stalk but only have experience in small fields. His one saving grace for me will be if Smith decides to stay on him. Then I’ll really have to reconsider things.

[moses]

For Omaha Beach, I read somewhere that he went unsold as an RNA at the yearling sale at Keeneland and the reason no one matched his reserve was some sort of medical issue. Does anyone know what the issue was? Obviously, it hasn’t hampered him so far.