3/22-24 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 3)

[Kasept]

UNBEATEN VERRAZANO FAVORED IN FINAL 2013 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Wednesday, March 20, 2013) – Unbeaten Verrazano (#20), impressive in three dominant victories since he launched his racing career on New Year’s Day, is a solid morning line choice to emerge as the overall betting favorite in this weekend’s third and final pool of Churchill Downs’ 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (“KDFW”).

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia has installed Verrazano, the Todd Pletcher-trained winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (GII), as the 7-2 favorite in his morning line odds for KDFW Pool 3. Wagering in the three-day pool is set to open at noon (all times Eastern) on Friday, March 22 and conclude at 6 p.m. on Sunday, March 24.

While Verrazano was the favored individual in the first two KDFW pools of 2013, the overall bettors’ choice in each was the Mutuel Field (#24), or “All Others”, which includes all 3-year-old Thoroughbreds other than the 23 individual horses listed on each pool’s betting roster. Battaglia installed “All Others” as the 6-1 second choice in Pool 3.

Trailing Verrazano and “All Others” in Pool 3 odds is a third-choice trio at 10-1 that includes Holy Bull (GIII) winner Itsmyluckyday (#7), Fountain of Youth (GII) winner Orb (#12) and Gotham (GIII) winner Vyjack (#21). Flashback (#4), the Bob Baffert-trained winner of the Robert B. Lewis (GII), is the 12-1 fourth choice, and is followed in the morning line by reigning 2-year-old champion and Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Shanghai Bobby (#18) at 15-1 and a group at 20-1 headed by the D. Wayne Lukas-trained duo of Will Take Charge (#23) and Oxbow (#14), the 1-2 finishers in last week’s Rebel Stakes (GII) at Oaklawn Park. Also listed at 20-1 are San Felipe (GII) winner Hear the Ghost (#6), Remsen (GII) runner-up Normandy Invasion (#11) and Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) winner Uncaptured (#19).

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager offers racing fans an opportunity to bet on potential contenders for the famed “Run for the Roses” well in advance of the race at odds that could be significantly more attractive than those available in betting on Kentucky Derby Day.

Each Kentucky Derby Future pool offers $2-minimum win betting and exacta wagering, which is available in the form of $2 minimum straight exacta bets or $1-minimum exacta boxes and part-wheels. No scratches or betting refunds are permitted in the Derby Future Wager, but betting on an individual horse will be suspended immediately if Churchill Downs determines that an injury, illness or other circumstance revealed during the pool would prevent that horse from competing in the Kentucky Derby.

Fans wagered a total of $1,028,532 in win and exacta bets during Feb. 8-10 and March 1-3 KDFW pools.

Once again, many of the 23 individual horses in this Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool are in the care of a handful of trainers, including five each from the stables of Pletcher and Baffert, both Kentucky Derby-winning trainers. Verrazano and Shanghai Bobby head a Pletcher squad that also includes Palace Malice (#15), Revolutionary (#16) and Overanalyze (#13). Flashback is joined in Baffert’s group by Code West (#1), Den’s Legacy (#2), Shakin It Up (#17) and War Academy (#22).

Pool 3 features six horses that were not wagering interests in this year’s second pool. The newcomers are Hear the Ghost, Java’s War (#8), Mr Palmer (#9), Noble Tune (#10), War Academy and Will Take Charge.

Betting on the 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager is offered by racetracks and off-track betting centers throughout North America. The bet also is available online at TwinSpires.com, the official online wagering site of Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby, and other advance deposit wagering platforms. KDFW betting interests are chosen by a panel that includes Ed DeRosa of BRISNET, Mike Watchmaker and Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form, and Churchill Downs’ John Asher.

Information on the Kentucky Derby is available online at the official event Web site at www.KentuckyDerby.com and KDFW real-time odds will be presented on that web site throughout Pool 3.

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER 2013 -- Pool 3 (March 22-24)

No., Horse, Pool 1 odds -- Pool 2 odds -- Pool 3 M/L

1. Code West, 56-1, 28-1, 30-1
2. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, 68-1, 50-1
3. Falling Sky, 114-1, 79-1, 50-1
4. Flashback, 12-1, 12-1, 12-1
5. Goldencents, 20-1, 24-1, 30-1
6. Hear the Ghost, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 20-1

7. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, 13-1, 10-1
8. Java’s War, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 30-1
9. Mr Palmer, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 50-1
10. Noble Tune, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 30-1
11. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, 17-1, 20-1
12. Orb, 3-2(f), 12-1, 10-1

13. Overanalyze, 33-1, 37-1, 30-1
14. Oxbow, 26-1, 31-1, 20-1
15. Palace Malice, 3-2(f), 40-1, 50-1
16. Revolutionary, 13-1, 15-1, 15-1
17. Shakin It Up, 3-2(f), 48-1, 30-1
18. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, 16-1, 15-1

19. Uncaptured, 40-1, 35-1, 20-1
20. Verrazano, 11-1, 9-1, 7-2
21. Vyjack, 49-1, 11-1, 10-1
22. War Academy, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 30-1
23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, 3-1(f), 20-1
24. Field (all others), 3-2, 3-1, 6-1

(f) – Field entry

[herkhorse]

how does a horse like Mr. Palmer make that field?

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

how does a horse like Mr. Palmer make that field?

And how does Super Ninety Nine not the make list? They are clueless!!

[herkhorse]

I think it was Jude Feld who said they should give a horse 10 points just for being included in the future pools. If they're not going to expand the list, I like that idea.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

how does a horse like Mr. Palmer make that field?

I think a Mr. Palmer is a great inclusion.. He may be a down the road type or completely ordinary but he's a speculative play that may be getting good at the right time too. You'll get him Sunday for 60-1 and if he jumps up and runs big in the Wood, you've got a fun puncher's chance safety ticket for Derby Day.

[goodcopy]

Distance?,Is he not a higher rated horse than Verrazano in the Pletcher Barn?
Per odds best bet on the 3rd pool board!

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I think it was Jude Feld who said they should give a horse 10 points just for being included in the future pools. If they're not going to expand the list, I like that idea.

I heard him say that on air, and I can't see any logic behind it. I think it's silly that they don't have a real future book pool with all Derby-nominated horses as a separate betting interest. Having the future book committee play a role in determining who gets in the Derby field because Churchill is unwilling to have a real future book wager only compounds the problem.

[Kasept]

DRF FUTURE WAGER PP'S

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I think a Mr. Palmer is a great inclusion.. He may be a down the road type or completely ordinary but he's a speculative play that may be getting good at the right time too. You'll get him Sunday for 60-1 and if he jumps up and runs big in the Wood, you've got a fun puncher's chance safety ticket for Derby Day.

I agree. His 88 Beyer in the Private Terms is accompanied by this trip line: "Brk slw,pinch,5-7w,drv". I haven't watched the Private Terms, but that sounds like 3+ lengths of trouble, which would bring his speed fig up into the low-mid 90's. Certainly competitive with most of the horses in the Future Wager.

With $100K in the Win Pool, he's 54-1.

--Dunbar

[herkhorse]

If I liked Mr. Palmer, I'd just bet him heavy in the Wood.

[Dunbar]

Here are will pays calculated from final pool amounts at KentuckyDerby.com. There's some kind of minor rounding off going on. The sum of the 24 individual amounts bet is $12 less than what the website is showing as the total win pool. So some of these Will-Pays may be off by 20 cents:

1 Code West $61.80
2 Den's Legacy $89.60
3 Falling Sky $192.40
4 Flashback $33.40
5 Goldencents $101.80
6 Hear the Ghost $33.00
7 Itsmyluckyday $23.80
8 Java's War $65.40
9 Mr Palmer $111.20
10 Noble Tune $102.40
11 Normandy Invasion $39.20
12 Orb $29.60
13 Overanalyze $101.60
14 Oxbow $44.80
15 Palace Malice $87.00
16 Revolutionary $27.80
17 Shakin It Up $74.80
18 Shanghai Bobby $38.80
19 Uncaptured $64.40
20 Verrazano $17.00
21 Vyjack $23.20
22 War Academy $39.80
23 Will Take Charge $41.80
24 All Other Three Ye $13.40


--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Here are the pays from DRF along with the previous Pool odds for each horse. (my pays were off by 20cents on 3 of the horses.)


POOL 3 FINAL ODDS

(No., Horse, Pool 1 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 3 odds)

1. Code West, 56-1, 28-1, 29-1, $61.80

2. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, 68-1, 43-1, $89.60

3. Falling Sky, 114-1, 79-1, 95-1, $192.40

4. Flashback, 12-1, 12-1, 15-1, $33.40

5. Goldencents, 20-1, 24-1, 49-1, $101.80

6. Hear the Ghost, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 15-1, $33

7. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, 13-1, 10-1, $23.80

8. Java’s War, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 31-1, $65.40

9. Mr Palmer, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 54-1, $111.40

10. Noble Tune, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 50-1, $102.40

11. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, 17-1, 18-1, $39.20

12. Orb, 3-2(f), 12-1, 13-1, $29.60

13. Overanalyze, 33-1, 37-1, 49-1, $101.60

14. Oxbow, 26-1, 31-1, 21-1, $44.60

15. Palice Malice, 3-2(f), 40-1, 42-1, $87

16. Revolutionary, 13-1, 15-1, 12-1, $27.80

17. Shakin It Up, 3-2(f), 48-1, 36-1, $74.80

18. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, $38.80

19. Uncaptured, 40-1, 35-1, 31-1, $64.40

20. Verrazano, 11-1, 9-1, 7-1, $17

21. Vyjack, 49-1, 11-1, 10-1, $23.20

22. War Academy, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 18-1, $39.80

23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, $41.80

24. Field (all others), 3-2, 3-1, 5-1, $13.40

(f) – Field entry in Pool 1 and/or 2.

[FATPIANO]

No respect for Shanhai Bobby, Champion 2yr old, undefeated as a two year old, in his first start at 3, runs his best race and comes in 2nd, in a track record performance, If he runs them into the ground in The Florida Derby, he might even be favored Derby Day, and here he is at 15-1 in the futures,