8/8 (SAR): Travers, Test, Ballerina (G1's), Troy, Waya (G3's)

[Kasept]

[casp0555]

Just watched Uncle Chuck up close schooling on a Twitter video (NYRA Feed) and OMG, he is huge. Didn't really put his size in perspective until I seen him up close.

[Kasept]

CROSS COUNTRY P5

[King Glorious]

As good as Tiz the Law is, I have Uncle Chuck to bear him here and become the new Derby favorite.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

As good as Tiz the Law is, I have Uncle Chuck to bear him here and become the new Derby favorite.

Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

Their Timeform numbers are pretty close and that final 1/8 in Uncle Chuck’s last race gives plenty of reason to think he will like 10 furlongs. Not sure if he will win or not but I’m using both in my Pick 5. I don’t think I will even bet the race. If I do, I may throw like $5 down on Caracaro to win, which I think is unlikely but impressed by his race last time out.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.

Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan

[gamblin4ever]

1st
Welcome back Rudeboyelvis. I hope you're doing much better.

2nd
Don't discount Baffert when he ships in. He talked about UC's stride and believes he'll like 1 1/4mi. Also, Mott saw SB train on dirt and thinks 1 1/4 might work. I don't think Country Grammar is good enough at this point to beat the top horses yet. Caracaro just looks like a much better horse when he stretched out and trainer is underated I believe.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan

putting a couple of dollars on Max Player...maybe Rosario can keep him closer to the pace and possibly make up some ground in the stretch...

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

Uncle Chuck has 1 stakes win, the Los Alamitos Derby...His only other start was his maiden win

I think Max Player, who ran a big race - by far his best - in the Belmont, will run well here...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

Slight correction. He only has one stakes win and that was at Los Alamitos. He did not run in the Lewis or the San Felipe.

I liked his win at Los Al and watching Thousand Words, who looked completely overmatched against him, come back and win the Shared Belief with the fastest Beyer in a 3yo prep, while beating the SA Derby winner, that validated Uncle Chuck a little bit more.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Uncle Chuck has 1 stakes win, the Los Alamitos Derby...His only other start was his maiden win

I think Max Player, who ran a big race - by far his best - in the Belmont, will run well here...

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Slight correction. He only has one stakes win and that was at Los Alamitos. He did not run in the Lewis or the San Felipe.

I liked his win at Los Al and watching Thousand Words, who looked completely overmatched against him, come back and win the Shared Belief with the fastest Beyer in a 3yo prep, while beating the SA Derby winner, that validated Uncle Chuck a little bit more.

Apologies - as I mentioned in my editing response I had about 6 different charts open and confused the two. King's response bolded is the direction I was going, admittedly poorly. Thanks for the correction - good luck today!

[-BT-]

That Balrina was very impressive, pressure the whole way and for once kept on going, zero excuses for Bellafina here

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by -BT-

That Balrina was very impressive, pressure the whole way and for once kept on going, zero excuses for Bellafina here

I didn't use Bellafina in any of my wagers as she has never won outside Ca.

[Dahoss]

Gamine is obviously really good (drug test pending) but Rosario handed her the race.

[Dahoss]

WOW

[casp0555]

who can beat that horse barring an injury....put away Uncle Chuck like he was Cousin Charlie

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

who can beat that horse barring an injury....put away Uncle Chuck like he was Cousin Charlie

Lol