BC ANALYSIS: A Day to Fire Wildly

[Kasept]

Our Breeders' Cup coverage kicks off with the murderously tough Juvenile Fillies which looks to literally give a chance to all signed on... Stalkers generally have excelled in this heat, and several here appear to have the turn of foot and tactical speed to score... The draw severely compromised many here that we were prepared to back, but the day's first race is so challenging that no play appears outrageous...

As always, this is not a day to fall in love with favorites, as your opportunity for big scores lies in disregarding odds and playing whatever horses catch your eye. Fire big, spread wide and hope they run for you!

Good luck..
Steve

$2MM BC Juvenile Fillies (Gr. I), 2yo Fillies, 8.5f, All 119 (P3, P4, Super)

1. Dreaming of Anna (Douglas/Catalano) 4-1: Perfect Rahy gal got best of draw; Viable at low tote near lead from dangerous, under-rated Chicago conditioner; Not our favorite but can't fault those that embrace.

2. Sutra (Luzzi/Stidham) 20-1: Frizette (Gr. I) winner from 'other' Chicago based trainer has been faulted for low fig, slow closing time, but has done little wrong; Aided for late run by cozy post; For deep exotic ticks.

3. Cash Included (Nakatani/C. Dollase) 3-1: Logical ML fave certainly likeable off Oak Leaf (Gr., I) score but hardly lays over inscrutable field; Looks inclined to work on front end, and plenty should be coming late; Underlay.

4. Octave (Gomez/Pletcher) 6-1: Unbridled's Song grey from lucky Starlight folks exits weakish-looking Matron (Gr. I) with no apparent excuse but also appears to be sitting on an effort; Fair ML tab adds to appeal of fillly that runs style that frequently wins this event; May appreciate first try around two turns and lone entrant with win over the surface; Lots to like.

5. She's Included (Espinoza/Paasch) 15-1: Paasch's first BC starter looks a distinct cut beneath top ones here and despite solid effort two back in DMR Deb, seems overmatched.

6. Bel Air Beauty (Jara/Brothers) 8-1: Intriguing upset Alcibiades (Gr. II) winner from excellent juvenile conditioner get perfect post and square price for stalking try under Gr. I grabber Jara; Bred better for dirt than turf, further improved performance in first off Poly could be good enough; Coming in hot and expect big try.

7. Cotton Blossom (JVelazquez/Pletcher) 10-1: Second from Team Todd exits Poly and route debuts when flat 4th in Alcibiades from tough post; Have vacilated all week on this one but find Broken Vow bay mildly useable at generous tote.

8. Lilly Carson (CVelasquez/Nicks) 30-1: Nicks' Carson City chestnut likely to try front end and faulter; Tough to like.

9. Adhrhythm (Prado/Plesa) 12-1: Plesa FL Stallion series starlet come north under shadow of strong history of Calder kids in this event; Has solid speed credentials but not a need the lead type at all; Had hoped for better price to start the wagereing, and three week turnaround not thrilling, but addition of Prado a plus. Prudent inclusion underneath.

10. Her Majesty (Leparoux/Biancone) 10-1: Lightly-raced Biancone miss by Giant's Causeway another that makes first real dirt start here off smashing maiden-breaker and good try 3rd @ KEE behind 'Beauty'; Has tactical style that should play well and should be a number that you'll like. Late blip on our radar screen and a definite use.

11. Satulagi (Egan/Moore) 20-1: Ultimate wiseguy gal enters this on course nearly identical to Wilco 2 years ago; KY bred daughter of Officer should like the loam and love the long stretch for her laggard style; Will be huge price and has appeal on spread tickets.

12. Appealing Zophie (Bridgmohan/Blasi) 10-1: Spinaway (Gr. I) winner has had four weeks to regroup from KEE fade, and certainly becomes interesting at tote higher than anticipated; Bred to like the trip and certain to appreciate return to sand; Use.

13. Quick Little Miss (Court/MStute) 30-1: One of three with more experience here, Stute Freud bay has already overachieved with FPX stake win and good wide try behind likely race fave; Late runner not clobbered by draw, but got no help either; Has had plenty of time coming into this, and old school helmsman has drilled her long for spot; May have done all of the developing she has in her for now, but could boost bottom of tri or super.

14. Gatorize (Guidry/Pitts) 30-1: At early glance one of our top choices, Pitts Exploit red got absolute worst of draw; Sure to lose ground and could ill afford any other difficulties needing a speed boost to compete to begin with; Rooting for but leaning against after pillbox pasting.

SELECTIONS:

1. #4 Octave 6-1 2ND
2. #10 Her Majesty 10-1 13TH
A. #6 Bel Air Beauty 8-1 8TH
B. #1 Dreaming of Anna 4-1 WON

WIDE EXOTICS: #11 Satulagi 20-1 11th/#9 Adrythem 12-17th

EX BX: $50.80 ($20)



$2MM BC Juvenile (Gr. I) 2yo Colts & Geldings, 8.5f (P3, Super)

A quality group assembles for the Juvenile, with Todd Pletcher holding a strong hand. But 4 accomplished trainers with strong historic results at Churchill (Zito, Baffert, Lukas, Nafzger) all will be looking to best the Pletcher trio...

1. Street Sense (Borel/Nafzger) 20-1: Game Nafzger Street Cry colt getting better with distance; Has local bomb pilot, placement on oval and offers great value; The pick.

2. Stormello (Desormeaux/Currin) 6-1: Had hoped for better tab on Currin-Eisman homebred red that we loved when he won Norfolk at 12-1; Successful when draw wide that day, should be as dangerous stalking from inside under Kent D; Player.

3. Scat Daddy (JVelazquez/Pletcher) 4-1: $250k Johannesburg buy from top connections has done nothing wrong since unveiling; Owns top figs coming in but offers little value; Has to be respected and used.

4. King of the Roxy (Prado/Pletcher) 12-1: Outrageous overachiever was nabbed for $8k by Barry Irwin's Team Valor and has already banked $226k; Wonder if Futurity winner has fired his big shots and is over the top for now; Taking stand against OH bred.

5. C P West (Bejarano/Zito) 15-1: Zito-LaPenta Came Home colt gives away experience to several here, but fits similar pattern of Her Majesty and Bel Air Beauty; Loses Prado to 'Roxy', but adds Raphy and looks like one of the smart value plays lined up.

6. Principle Secret (Espinoza/Paasch) 5-1: Tote seems underlaid on Sea of Secrets Best Pal winner that couldn't hold off Stormello in Norfolk; Added pace pressure has us looking elsewhere.

7. Great Hunter (Nakatani/O'Neill) 9-2: Any hope of getting price on this Aptitude from Reddam went out window with excellent Breeders' Futurity (Gr. I) score at KEE; One of four with win at the trip and looks certain to run his race.

8. Teuflesberg (Albarado/Sanders) 50-1: Bay by Johannesburg may be in over his head at first glance, but will likely take them at least part of the way on the front end; Could compromise Pegasus Wind and Principle Secret before packing it in.

9. Circular Quay (Gomez/Pletcher) 5-2: Obligated to use highly questionable favorite that owns pair of Downs wins and was game in compromised placement behind Great Hunter in Lexington; Pletcher stalker-closer from powerhouse stable by sire that did OK in his visit to Churchill May '95; Hard to play totally against.

10. Pegasus Wind (Luzzi/Lukas) 15-1: Lone DWL entrant in Cup hung on gamely in Champagne showing and will attempt front end theft in event last wired at CD by D. Wayne's own Is It True; Question of employment is whether you believe he can stay on for a share; Your call.

11. Got the Last Laugh (Douglas/Mott) 20-1: Zayat's Distorted Humor player mudlarked at Chicago before failing to lift a hoof in Champagne; Pass.

12. U D Ghetto (Smith/Reinstedler) 50-1: Small guy feel good story of this event, Honour and Glory bay gelding was star of Turfway stakes with pace-attending win at 18-1 under Smitty; Given time to recoup by clever Reinstedler and would be quite appealing had he drawn better; Likely part of the picture into the stretch and hardly the worst bomb stab in this group.

13. Malt Magic (Court/Baffert) 30-1: Second Zayat entrant has fascinating worktab under eye of trainer with solid history at Churchill; Tanked in Norfolk off big fig maiden win and will need to hustle under Espo to avoid being hung; Hard to leave Baffert AND Lukas off tickets at Churchill again!

14. Skip Code (Husbands/Casse) 50-1: As opposed to juvy fillies that are drawn wide and close, here's another that likes to pace but drew wide and likely loses all chance; May only be one of the Skip Away progeny that likes to Poly anyway.

SELECTIONS:

1. #1 Street Sense 20-1 WON$32.40/$12.60/$8.00
2. #5 C P West 15-1 6TH
A. #9 Circular Quay 5-2 2ND
B. #7 Great Hunter 9-2 3RD

WIDE EXOTICS: #3 Scat Daddy 4-1 4TH/#2 Stormello 6-1 5TH

EX: $181.20 ($2)
TRI: $996.00 ($2)
SUPER: $3,915.80 ($2)

[Buffymommy]

STEVE,

I like Octave too. I had the same thing written next to her. I think she is going to love the x-tra distance.

[Past Post]

Dixie Porter,I agree 100%. This horse is GAME !

[mnmark]

Thats the beauty of handicapping and parimutuel wagering. One handicappers beast is anothers hadicappers bum. No need to be critical when all he is doing is sharing his insight and analyisis with members who value his opinion. It's one thing to disagreeor have a different viewpoint or anaylis but there's really no reason or basis to be critical.

P.S. Steve I really appreciate all your analyisis. This is the best Horse racing site going.

[mclem10011]

I like the play of Street Sense, and she'll be on my ticket for sure. I have C P West on top through, she's looked wonderful all week, from the footage I've seen, and I think she's gonna run a big race for Zito and Bejarano.

I like Octave over Cash Included and Dreaming of Anna. She's a nice, robust filly who has good run in her and the style to win. She's got a ton of upside as well.

Im going with Teuflesberg over Street Sense and Scat Daddy. I do think Scat Daddy will be the one to beat but I just have a lot of faith in the first two. I can def see Street Sense surprising an upset.

[smuthg]

What about Her Majesty??? seems to be the play to me...

[SentToStud]

very nicely done with Street Sense.... hope you bring home the p-4. gl

Way to go, Steve. Street Sense saved the day for me. It would've been brutal without him and CQ coming through.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Way to go, Steve. Street Sense saved the day for me. It would've been brutal without him and CQ coming through.

Ditto...

If Giacomo would have gotten up for the show, I would have done a lot better... oh well.