BC ANALYSIS: Part II

[Kasept]

$2MM BC Filly & Mare Turf (Gr. I) 3+, 11f-T (P3, P6, Super)
A straightforward edition of the newest BC race appears to come down to the 2 obvious horses.. The wonderful trouper Ouija Board and a possible mega-star in Wait a While...

1. Dancing Edie (Nakatani/Dollase) 123/30-1: Gr. Mabee winner couldn't hold off Wait a While in Yellow Ribbon and won't be able to here either, but could boost tri/super.

2. Ouija Board (Dettori/Dunlop) 123/8-5: Runner-up in this last year when Intercontinental was able to steal it, 5 yo ending campaign versus many of Europe's best boys; Imposing, a deserving favorite and likely to battle Wait a While to wire.

3. Mauralakana (Leparoux/Biancone) 119/15-1: A cut below in Europe and in pair of US tries; Will have to step up.

4. Film Maker (Prado/Motion) 123/6-1: Honest Dynaformer 6yo 3rd/2nd last two year's and appears likely for similar performance.

5. Honey Ryder (JVelazquez/Pletcher) 123: Stalking 5yo grey earned 2nd Gr. I victory in Flower Bowl but still seems unlikely to best top pair here.

6. Quiet Royal (Peslier/Pletcher) 119/30-1: Recently moved to Pletcher, Royal Academy red gave nice account of herself in the QEII, but is another that appears no match for 'the ones'.

7. Wait a While (Gomez/Pletcher) 119/3-1: Increasingly special filly goes for brass ring off 4 straight wins under Gomez; If not today, then next year.

8. My Typhoon (Albarado/Mott) 123/20-1: Multiple Gr. II/III winner reunites with Robby who guided her to two of those stakes scores on this lawn; Live Oak star has never been this far and is being asked a lot to do better than a superfecta finish here.

9. Satwa Queen (Thulliez/DeRoualle) 123/12-1: Group II winner split nice Mandesha and Alexandrova in Prix de l'Opera (Grp. I) but also seems up against it versus Ouija, Wait and Maker.

10. Germance (Soumillon/Rouget) 119/12-1: Beaten as favorite in the QEII (N. American debut), Silver Hawk bay rarely misses by much; With Dancing Edie, one of the possibles under the exacta pair.

SELECTIONS:

1. Ouija Board 8-5 WON $4.80/$3.40/$2.60
2. Wait a While 3-1 4TH
A. Dancing Edie 30-1 8TH
B. Film Maker 6-1 2ND

EX: $33.20


$2MM BC Sprint (Gr. I) 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

The BC Sprint has historically produced some enormous mutuels, but while favorites have been vulnerable in the frenetic 6f heat, plenty of low priced horses have succeeded. For every 22-1 Cajun Beat (2003), there has been a 7-2 Speightstown (2004). Squirtle Squirt (9-1) won this race in 2001 and Kona Gold (3-2), Artax (7-2) and Reraise (4-1) triumphed in the three years before. What is typical in the Sprint is an array of prices in the trifecta: one under 10-1 and two over 10-1, (frequently one well over 20-1).

Another commonality in the Sprint is the running position of the trifecta finishers. Regularly in this race, some combination of horses that are 1-2-3 turning for home, finish as the tri. On top of that, at Churchill, deep closers have not fared especially well. Identifying the horses that will be on or near the pace off the turn, and in the tri box at the eighth pole, will go a long way towards exotic success Saturday.

1. Thor's Echo (Nakatani/O'Neill) 10-1: Surprisingly low tote on Swiss Yodeler red that chased Bordonero home in the Ancient Title; Concerned about inside post and likely reaction to career best effort last.

2. Friendly Island (Dominguez/Pletcher) 30-1: Nice NY bred has run one race this year that could be good enough to win this, but it wasn't good enough to win the Count Fleet at Oaklawn (Bordonero). Can't see anything better than a super filling finish.

3. Lewis Michael (Douglas/Catalano) 30-1: Full brother of Dreaming of Anna has never run 6f before... Would be a shock.

4. Henny Hughes (JVelazquez/McLaughlin) 2-1: Consistantly indominable all year, KMc red has been working entire campaign for this 1:08.0. Can't blame those wanting to try and beat him, but he IS the one to beat.

5. Areyoutalkintome (Espinoza/O'Neill) 30-1: Nice Smokester 5yo is overmatched here from every standpoint.

6. Bordonaro (PValenzuela/Spawr) 3-1: Logical 2nd choice looks like the more vulnerable of the top 2.

7. Nightmare Affair (Prado/Azpurua) 30-1: Smile sprint upsetter does best work at Calder, and move to this surface has frequently produced big efforts. Can't fault those that like with addition of Prado.

8. Pomeroy (Castro/Wolfson) 8-1: Nice Boundary 5yo does his best running at Saratoga; Respect Wolfson and Castro though who have been deadly for months on end shipping around the country.

9. Too Much Bling (Gomez/Baffert) 10-1: Tote VERY appealing on Baffert blisterer coming into this fresh; Was ONLY ship-in to score in CRC's Summit of Speed, and looks like THE threat to Henny.

10. War Front (Santos/Jerkens) 12-1: Chief's Danzig bay doesn't win too, too often, but also never fails to fire; Appears ready to give best after crazy BEL drill last week.

11. Siren Lure (Solis/Sherman) 10-1: Five of 6 this year and would be one of the serious ones if not for fact he has been running 7f; Swept Overboard and Aldebarran taught of that lesson the last few years... Under only for us.

12. Malibu Mint (Kaenel/Chapman) 30-1: Very enticing tote on in-form red filly that fired shot in Princess Rooney that would win this most years; No reason not to like given history of hot sprinting sisters in this event over the years.

13. Attila's Storm (CVelasquez/Schosberg) 20-1: Super quick from the gate, best sprinter Schosberg's had since Affirmed Success faces tough trip scenario on frontr end from wide start.

14. Kelly's Landing (Bejarano/Kenneally) 20-1: Circling back to one his periodic great efforts which have invcariably come this surfacewhere he holds the track record.

SELECTIONS:

1. #4 Henny Hughes 2-1 14TH
2. #9 Too Much Bling 10-1 6TH
A. #10 War Front 12-1 7TH
B. #14 Kelly's Landing 20-1 10TH

WIDE EXOTICS: #11 Siren Lure 10-1 8TH/#3 Bordonaro 3-1 4TH

[swedejxn]

I agree with your also-rans... it really is a two horse race.... see Maurakalana as a possible... include.....

[mclem10011]

I've got Wait a While on top, over Ouija Board, who will be a tough one to be for sure. I just wonder if all her jet setting schedule may catch up with her when it comes to stretch time? I would throw Mauralakana and perhaps Quiet Royal underneath as well IMO.

[mclem10011]

Henny Hughes is gonna be strong, he's been great all year. Having said that, I'm still gonna try to beat HH. Something tells me Siren Lure may not mind the cut back in distance as much as some may think. I agree with War Front getting a long look, and including in your exotics. Malibu Mint is in top form as well, and I really love Pomeroy since Marty has taken over him. Also as fast as Attila's Storm is, I would use that one to hang on for a piece too.

[AeWingnut]

No Filly Mare turf winner has won the 2 previous starts. Ofcourse the race doesn't have a long history and Ouija Board didn't win last out
but Wait A While on the other hand..

I want to know more about Germance
the horse was bumped last out and came running
was it bad enough to justify the poor placing?

also seems like many turf finishers came from Keeneland
not always on the Win but at long odds