BC ANALYSIS: Part III

[Kasept]

$2MM BC Mile (Gr. I) 3+, 8f-T (P4, P3, Super)

The Breeder's Cup Mile, typically the most roughly run race of the day, is another event that generates excellent mutuels in a formful manner. What we know for sure is that the BC Mile is most often won by a true miler (think Lure, Da Hoss, War Chant, Miesque, Royal Academy, etc..) at relatively low odds. It almost ALWAYS has a place or show horse at 15-1 or greater and in 17 of 22 has had a 25-1 or higher longshot in the tri. In two of the last four years, the 20-1-ish shot in the mix WAS your winner in Singletary (16-1) and Domedriver (26-1). But by all rights, if not for a dreadful ride by Mick Kinane, Domedriver would have finished behind the Rock further strengthening the above-cited trivia.

Another recent trend in the mile is for good performances from the most extreme posts. In 11 of the last 13 runnings, at least one runner from posts 10-14 have hit the board, and in 6 of those races, two widely stationed starters were in the trifecta. Running style plays a part in the Mile as well, with 70% of the race's winners within three lengths of the lead at first call (half mile), and 86% within two lengths at the second call (6f). In prior BC Mile runnings at Churchill, Euros or Euros that had already come to the US, have been involved in every trifecta.

1. Ad Valorem (Spencer/O'Brien) 20-1: Saves ground.. A cut beneath best here..

2. Silent Name (Espinoza/GMandella) 20-1: Consistent also-ran in Gr. I company..

3. Araafa (JVelazquez/Noseda) 9-2: Has kept top company including near miss behind Geo. Washington in the important QEII at Ascot and getsservices of Johnny V...

4. Sleeping Indian (Solis/Gosden) 20-1: Trainer has annexed this, but Strawbridge-bred/owned bay looks overmatched...

5. Free Thinking (Santos/Danner) 15-1: Grab price on under the radar 5yo son of Unbridled who is peaking... Expect big try at great price...

6. Echo of Light (Dettori/bin Suroor) 10-1: Group II winner a nice horse but simply needs a speed boost to win this... For deepest tris and supers...

7. Aragorn (Nakatani/Drysdale) 5-1: Taking stand against well-raced 4yo who may be over the top and running on a course he won't like...

8. Badge of Silver (Prado/Frankel) 12-1: Day's most interesting horse can win this if right; Off since January but Fun Bobby could pull this off...

9. Rob Roy (Dominguez/Stoute) 15-1: KY bred son of Lear Fan chased nice filly Pride home in the Champion (Grp I) at Newmarket; Gets Ramon and has some fans, though we're not among them Saturday...

10. Miesque's Approval (Castro/Wolfson) 10-1: With pomeroy, one of two reclamation projects that went from scrap heap to top of the heap; Great effort would be great finish to a great campaign by this Live Oak homebred...

11. Super Frolic (Bridgmohan/Blasi) 50-1: Crazy price on Gr. II winner that has speed to impact if lawn to his liking; Now with Blasi, good effort wouldn't be a surprise...

12. Gorella (Leparoux/Biancone) 4-1: Wonderful filly never fails to perform but faces same scenario as '05 edition needing to work out a voyage through a bulky field...

13. Librettist (Soumillon/bin Suroor) 6-1: Godolphin Danzig bay tanked in the QEII and appears underlay from tough slot and with Dettori sticking by Echo...

14. Aussie Rules (Gomez/O'Brien) 10-1: Danehill 4yo grey ran away from Shadwell (Gr. I) field at KEE, but gets tough starting berth for this...

SELECTIONS:

1. #5 Free Thinking 15-1
2. #3 Araafa 9-2
A. #12 Gorella 4-1
B. #8 Badge of Silver 12-1 3RD

WIDE EXOTICS: #10 Miesque's Approval 10-1 WON/#11 Super Frolic 50-1



$2MM BC Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, Super)

Much like last year's addition off the Distaff, this version features a host of Gr. I winners. Todd Pletcher again dominates the event with three very viable win candidates in streaking Fleet Indian, Spun Sugar and Pool Land. Andy leggio returns Happy Ticket to the preceedings, while Tom Albertrani saddles Balletto with the hope that an anticipated fast pace sets up the deep closer.

1. Round Pond (Prado/Matz) 15-1: Inclined to believe Matz' explanation for Awesome Again bay's short effort last out in the Beldame (Gr. I); '05 Acorn winner tied up and was nursing bad frog and can assume she'll be 100% for another shot at Indian, Island, et al; Offers value, retains top pilot, goes 3rd off the break and has our attention.

2. Pine Island (Castellano/McGaughey) 5-1: History says any Phipps miss worthy of your money on this particular stage, but concerned Alabama-Gazelle (Gr. I's) victress could be late getting to this party; Pace scenario works, but a few here will have first jump on pacesetters and Arch daughter must crank up the speed for laurels; Prefer underneath here.

3. Healthy Addiction (Espinoza/Sadler) 10-1: Last in this event in '05 and hard to see as anything more than pace participant.

4. Sharp Lisa (PValenzuela/O'Neill) 50-1: Tried the Poly and ran well enough in Spinster, but Santa Barabara (Gr. II) winner seems neither fish nor fowl in this group; Pass.

5. Lemons Forever (Guidry/Stewart) 30-1: Stewart's LDK chestnut returns to scene of her KY Oaks crime, stealing the wacky Derby prequal as the longest price in the hgistory of the race (47-1). While pace up front provides set up, at least two other closers here have proven their ability at this level whiule she hasn't.

6. Spun Sugar (Luzzi/Pletcher) 10-1: First of three Pletchers signed on may be the one least appreciated on the board; Awesome Again bay shows distinct pattern of top efforts 2nd off break and enters this under those conditions; Has forward-placed tactical style and figures thatr are just a tick below her stablemate; Using prominantly.

7. Fleet Indian (Santos/Pletcher) 8-5: No denying quality of campaign of this Indian Charlie gal, but this looks like logical spot to stand against at low mutuel; Faces similar scenario as Bernardini meeting better than solid, as well as full, field, and could stub her toe; A must in the mix but no lock on top.

8. Baghdaria (Bejarano/Amoss) 30-1: Multiple Gr. III winner has had swell campaign and appears in a tad over her head here; For deepest exotic tickets as booster.

9. Pool Land (JVelazquez/Pletcher) 10-1: Ruffian (Gr. I) winner yet another part of the pace puzzle; Shows a tendency to peak and circle back to good tries, and while this looks like an "A" race, she'll have to outmuscle as many as 6 who'll come calling along the way; Can't see on top, but possible shareholder at the wire.

10. Hollywood Story (Flores/Shirreffs) 20-1: One of my favorites in training, this Shirreffs trainee has not run well in the Cup since her 4th as a maiden in Halfbridled's Juvy Filly; Notorious homebody came to Churchill early to acclimate but hard to like beyond super bottom.

11. Bushfire (Solis/Kenneally) 30-1: Kenneally miss scooped up three Gr. I in short order this year but hasn't progressed while doing so; Looks overmatched.

12. Asi Siempre (Leparoux/Biancone) 15-1: Speaking of fish nor fowl, Spinster winner bringing a turf foot to a dirt fight; Seems hopeless against variety of accomplished main track runners.

13. Happy Ticket (Gomez/Leggio) 12-1: "Perfect" 2005 season came to a crasahing halt for Cajun cutie when displacing in this race; Has had maddening '06 that featured pair of neckjobs at the hands of Round Pond and Spun Sugar; Leggio vowed to come back and win this race after last year's fiasco, and whileseemingly a notch below this year's best damsels, looks like a must include.

14. Balletto (Nakatani/Albertrani) 6-1: Enigmatic Timber Country homebred red by Darley prefers to come abreast of winners rather than blow by; Nakatani piloted this one to her Frizette score at 2, and maybe has the magic touch to get her home late; Don't believe it's her day.

SELECTIONS:

1. Spun Sugar 10-1
2. Fleet Indian 8-5
A. Pine Island 5-1
B. Round Pond 15-1 WON

WIDE EXOTICS: #13 Happy Ticket 12-1 3RD/#14 Balletto 6-1 2ND

EX BX: $446.00 ($2)
TRI BX: $4,355.40 ($2)

[mclem10011]

Gorella all year, really since I saw her last year's race. I'm staying with her, I can see it now, Julian drops her back, and being on the outside she finds a better path to make that late run she always makes.