Pimlico Special

SentToStud · #1 05-14-2008, 11:43 AM

My take on a good betting race. Good luck to you.

1. Ryan’s For Real is a nice horse. In the Shaeffer last May he ran an ok 3rd to Flashy Bull and Hesanoldsalt. RFR did have a great trip in the race and there wasn’t much behind him; just Take the Bluff and Sunriver (who didn’t run two steps) RFR started showing more speed the day he beat Coyote and Sara Lullaby. RFR pretty much duplicated that race at Hawthorne last month when he beat Fairbanks (who doesn’t beat Fairbanks?) I believe the Hartack set up great for RFR 2nd off a layoff and coming off the sprint prep. He’s hard to knock having won nicely from the rail more than once.

2. Gottcha Gold pretty much had to win the GP race with Frost Giant not living up to hype, Better Than Bonds running poorly and Hunting just way too far back. Mr Umphrey, at 40-1, set the pace and was an easy 2nd. He just had a great trip and never saw any outside pressure. But he always runs his race (toss the SA tires race) and he’s finished in front of some very nice horses like Lawyer Ron and Discreet Cat. He shows only two works since his last race 8 weeks ago. I’m not sure I believe that. Maybe this is a prep for Monmouth. I hope not.

3. Student Council. Yeah, he beat AP Arrow going 10F last September but if that race was 50 yards shorter, AP would not have beat Miami Sunrise. He’s done nothing since but still he’ll probably take some action off that race and the Pac Classic win. Toss.

4. A.P. Arrow. In the Donn, only he and Spring at Last got the trips they needed to run well (aside from Daaher who tanked and Kiss the Kid). He probably lost that race because he was giving conditioning to Spring at Last and if you toss his two races on the tires, his form looks even better. Then again, he’s going to be 3/2 or so, probably was pointed hard for the Dubai race, there's the Dubai bounce factor, he’s never run over the track and he shows only two very recent works over the past six weeks. Most of all, the Foster is in four weeks at a track/distance he’s won at and for three times the purse money. His running style fits but he’s beatable. Top two toss.

5. Xchanger. Interesting he went off at the same price (7-1) in the BC Dirt Mile as did Gottcha Gold, despite never running on an off track. But he did run very well at the Meadowlands to D Stripes and Magna Grad, so I guess that explains it. Then again, he figured 3rd in that race, given Utopia basically ran backwards. I think his last three races are not overly unreasonable to toss; the BC Slop, the Cigar Mile (his 10th and, mercifully, last start of the year) and the sprint prep on the tires.

6. Wanderin Boy. Ran a huge 2nd at Saratoga but everything behind him; Papi Chulo, Magna Grad, Diamond Stripes, Flashy Bull didn’t do very much running. He did fend off Fairbanks early, for what that’s worth. His other good on paper G1 2nd to Bernardini (1/9) was really not much as the second choice Dylan Thomas trailed the whole way and got beat by 30 lengths at 4-1. He won the Alysheba last year in the slop off a layoff but this year got beat at 9/5 in the identical situation. His best race ever is possibly his 2006 Pimlico Special 2nd at odds-on to Invasor. I am tossing him.

7. Grasshopper. I’m ok with him losing at odds-on in 3 of his 4 last starts. But I’m not ok with him running back in a pretty tough race in 14 days at what looks to me like 5/2. I also thought that while Divine Park is a nice horse, Grasshopper should have stayed closer to him as they moved into the turn in his last race. It’s interesting that Howard passed on the Keeneland race on April 20th to ship to Belmont for the race on the 30th.

8. Sir Whimsey. Hardly impressed by his GPH win as Kiss the Kid and Leonatus A came up pretty empty after a soft pace. Whimsey held off Fairbanks (who doesn’t?) who was 6/5. I can’t see him not being further back than any of his starts this year and he’ll have too many decent horses to pass in front of him. Toss.

9. Temporary Saint. Beat such stalwarts as Magna Grad (5/2), Nite Light (5/2) and Wafi City (7/2) as well as Evening Attire. Nice claim and all but I’m not very impressed. Neither is Chuck Lopez who jumps ship. Toss.

Gottcha Gold to win.
Ex boxes: Gottcha Gold with Ryan’s For Real, Xchanger and Grasshopper.

atolunch · #2 05-14-2008, 02:15 PM

Dumb question, but what race is this??

Thanks for your help and race breakdown!!

robfla · #3 05-14-2008, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch

Dumb question, but what race is this??

Thanks for your help and race breakdown!!

one look at the title of the thread will give it away

friday

Scav · #4 05-15-2008, 11:47 PM

I am a huge fan of Xchanger in this spot, at least to hit the board. He should get a great ride/trip with Gomez, into what seems like a hot pace. While I would like Grasshopper, I don't like the fact that he goes from FG to training at Church, then ships to Belmont, then ships back to Churchill, and now ships to Pimlico. I'll be using Xchanger and Sir Whimsey in P3's, and probably key these two in a tri like the below

1st: 5,8
2nd: 2,4,5,7,8
3rd: 2,4,5,7,8

pick4 · #5 05-16-2008, 12:01 AM

Devine Park almost broke the track record when he crushed the Westchester field on Opening Day.

I thought the connections of Grasshopper were using the Westchester as a prep for the Met Mile. While Grasshopper ran well, I think two turns is his game. Perhaps Neil Howard and Will Farish believe he is a two turn horse too. This is a quick turn around but he's in form. If he's around 3 or 4-1 those would be great win odds.

hockey2315 · #6 05-16-2008, 02:43 AM

I'm with you, Scav. . . Using the same two (and Student Council)

Scav · #7 05-16-2008, 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm with you, Scav. . . Using the same two (and Student Council)

Please, PLEASE save your money on Student Council. Please!!

hockey2315 · #8 05-16-2008, 03:21 AM

Ya you're probably right but I'd like a third horse and I'm not really crazy about anyone else. . .

-BT- · #9 05-16-2008, 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Please, PLEASE save your money on Student Council. Please!!

I also think this horse has a shot to rebound

he's gonna be on my pk4 ticket as i Unfortunatley will be going 5 deep in this one

-bt-

Hickory Hill Hoff · #10 05-16-2008, 07:40 AM

Grasshopper / Gotcha Gold / Student Council / Sir Whimsey with
BIG Brown in Special / Preakness doubles

Bobby Fischer · #11 05-16-2008, 12:12 PM

good rundown StS

this race lacks a star.

A.P. Arrow is the true 10 furlong horse in the bunch, and he has a little advantage in that respect. However he is hard to ever back for the win. Always making a late bid. He should run his same solid/average race. Maybe he is a key in all the levels of the tri?

Gotcha Gold is out beyond his distance AGAIN. If we say he is a classic distance runner enough times.... we will get a headache. He is hoping for some rain or a really jacked-up pimlico track = both scenarios giving him a chance to compete on talent alone.

If Sir Whimsey can regain his dirt form, he will compete here. This horse developed beyond all expectations. It was a goofy decision to abrubtly run him 9furlongs over at keeneland, but at least he didn't quit and stayed on for 3rd or 4th or whatever. Needs the race to come back to him a bit, but certainly could be Whimsey/Arrow.

Wanderin Boy is going to be tied in with the track condition. If it rains and the track is sloppy, you have to use. Otherwise toss from exacta.

I put 50 win on Temporary Saint in january, and disgusted myself by missing the Excelsior, but there is only so far a Bruce Levine move-up can take a solid allowance level animal. Loss of Lopez hurts, as does a little company on the pace. Still can compete for top 4 here.