Who is most likely to knock off Bernardini?

SniperSB23 · #1 10-11-2006, 10:42 AM

This thread is NOT to rank the horses in the Classic but is intended to speculate on who has the best chance of knocking off Bernardini and winning the race. My opinion:

1. David Junior - We know this is a world class horse at ten furlongs and the pedigree suggests he should handle the dirt. Hate the layoff but if he really does benefit from it then he has the talent to take down 'Dini. Probably the only horse that could do it on talent.

2. Sun King - If you can't beat Bernardini on talent then a speed duel seems the next most logical way it could happen. Sun King has run a couple very big races this year in the Met Mile and Whitney and if the speed collapses he seems the most likely to fire from the back of the pack and win the race.

3. Invasor - Fired off the layoff in the Suburban and is undefeated outside of Dubai. Could sit off the pace and pounce at the end especially if Bernardini gets a rocky trip.

4. Lava Man - Assuming he doesn't have a problem with Churchill he still has a lot to overcome. Hard to imagine in a 14 horse field that he could get very comfortable on the front end and it is tough to imagine he'd get a dream stalking trip. If all goes well and he can improve on his California form (a big if) then he has an outside shot.

5. Giacomo - If it isn't Bernardini or any of the four I listed above then the only thing I can imagine would be a repeat of the '05 Derby where even the closers went too fast early and had nothing left in the tank at the end and a plodder like Giacomo was able to pass them all in the stretch. We all know he likes Churchill so why just settle for the most unlikely horse to win the Derby and instead be the most unlikely horse to win the Derby and the Classic. Internet forums would most likely explode.

#2 10-11-2006, 10:43 AM

One of three horses, Lava Man, Invasor, or Sun King. Have to see which Euros are going as well.

Revolution · #3 10-11-2006, 10:46 AM

Giacomo? Unless he is running 9f and Bernardini 10f he has no chance.

The only competition for Bernardini is going to be Secretariat's track record. I think it will be close.

randallscott35 · #4 10-11-2006, 10:47 AM

Easily Invasor. None of the others make me think its possible.

ArlJim78 · #5 10-11-2006, 10:57 AM

Invasor is the one with the best shot IMO.

Gander · #6 10-11-2006, 11:15 AM

I'd say Lava Man and Sun King, if the trip scenarios work out right.
I hope Europe sends a better challenger than Dylan Thomas. He would have been better served running in one of the allowance or claiming races earlier in the day.

Lava Man- If he is fed his Wheaties and gets a moderate pace and he breaks on top or sits right behind a possible rabbbit.

Sun King- If Bernardini moves too early into a wicked pace and Sun King is trained properly from now until Nov 4th, which we have every reason to believe he will be.

Sightseek · #7 10-11-2006, 11:18 AM

Beware of David Junior

Invasor would be my other pick.

King Glorious · #8 10-11-2006, 11:26 AM

If Bernardini doesn't win, it will be the biggest upset in BC history. If Lava Man isn't the one that beats him, there should be a police investigation. Nobody else has a prayer.

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #9 10-11-2006, 11:28 AM

perfect drift, yes im a huge fan but his form hasnt tailed off and of course hes got homecourt advantage

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #10 10-11-2006, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If Bernardini doesn't win, it will be the biggest upset in BC history. If Lava Man isn't the one that beats him, there should be a police investigation. Nobody else has a prayer.

lava man? hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

Cajungator26 · #11 10-11-2006, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

perfect drift, yes im a huge fan but his form hasnt tailed off and of course hes got homecourt advantage

I agree completely!

Gander · #12 10-11-2006, 11:34 AM

hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

Everybody ran bad that day except for Borrego. Flower Alley was up the track and came back to run a respectable 2nd to Saint Liam in the Classic.
Lava Man is a completely different horse a year later, much better than he was at this time last year and he ships 1 month before the race instead of 3 days. I like his chances better than Perfect Drifts, but call me crazy I guess.

SundayStar · #13 10-11-2006, 11:34 AM

lava man and david junior. but david junior's chances are very slim due to not having a prep.

Pointg5 · #14 10-11-2006, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

lava man? hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

PD hasn't tailed off???? He's slower this year than he was last year, I don't know about you but being beat by Seek Gold would tell me, he's tailed off...

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #15 10-11-2006, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

Everybody ran bad that day except for Borrego. Flower Alley was up the track and came back to run a respectable 2nd to Saint Liam in the Classic.
Lava Man is a completely different horse a year later, much better than he was at this time last year and he ships 1 month before the race instead of 3 days. I like his chances better than Perfect Drifts, but call me crazy I guess.

well tim hell get another chance to prove it! last year at the time everyone was saying lava man was the next superhorse before the race and look what happened! the one thing you can say in lava's defense last year was the pace was totally against him and totally set it up for borrego, lava man was a solid bet against in the race and borrego was a "gift" 5-1. LOL please dont mention the overrated flower alley into the equation tim

Thunder Gulch · #16 10-11-2006, 11:38 AM

I think it's Lava Man. If speed holds at CD, he will be extremely tough to get by. A sneaky pace scenario would really help his chances as well.

As for how he ran in the east last year. It was miserable, but LM had clearly started to regress when he left the west last year. This year he has been more consistent and is capable of running his best.

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #17 10-11-2006, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

PD hasn't tailed off???? He's slower this year than he was last year, I don't know about you but being beat by Seek Gold would tell me, he's tailed off...

LOL gimme a break freefourinternet beat him how many years ago, did he tail off after that? was he right there in the foster this year, was he right there in his last race?

#18 10-11-2006, 11:39 AM

Only bad luck can beat Bernardini. I still remember Slew being nosed out by Exceller in the JCGC 1978(after Afffirmed's saddle slipped). I do not expect history to repeat itself. Bernardini will be tested, but he will win once again.

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #19 10-11-2006, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

LOL gimme a break freefourinternet beat him how many years ago, did he tail off after that? was he right there in the foster this year, was he right there in his last race?

1 thing that will work against PD is the track coming up sloppy. he can handle the off going but will not run his best race over it. if it comes up that way then id discount him at the windows, lol even tho i wont hes getting my usual 50 and 50 on him no matter what

Sightseek · #20 10-11-2006, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

Everybody ran bad that day except for Borrego. Flower Alley was up the track and came back to run a respectable 2nd to Saint Liam in the Classic.
Lava Man is a completely different horse a year later, much better than he was at this time last year and he ships 1 month before the race instead of 3 days. I like his chances better than Perfect Drifts, but call me crazy I guess.

I'd take LM, David Junior, Sun King and Giacomo over Perfect Drift. *and INvasor if he runs