12/2: Aqueduct ($35k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NY-MCLM, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 In a Minute 4-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Seba M 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Drinking Solo 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Neptune Beach 5-1 3rd


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$35k C/O starts here and it’s a tricky way to kick off daunting sequence..

Most Likely: #6 Brooklyn Diamonds 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Cloud Forest 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Mandatory 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Stjames 6-1 5th


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Rocco Strong 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Power Seeker 8-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #3 Overstep 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Ocean’s Reserve 5-1 2nd


7th: Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Dave Grening on ATR, Life Talk not any more accomplished (or faster) than several here. Respect, but don’t fear. Vino Rouge has look of filly that will relish the 9f trip and that’s what you try to look for in Demoiselle/Remsen value candidates. Most of All broke through in off/turf romp last and at 15-1 feels too good to leave off. Shimmering Allure has number power to impact significantly, but has already done a lot of developing..

Most Likely: #5 Vino Rouge 8-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Most of All 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Life Talk 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Shimmering Allure 7-2 2nd


P4 Grid:

4: 1-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
6: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: Go for Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Dr B back for Wand title defense, but Butchy’s enigmatic mare wired that edition and hasn’t won since going 6f-7f. Good Sam gets beneficial outside open air box (‘where the air is fresh and clear’) and isn’t favored..

Most Likely: #7 Good Sam 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Dr. B 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #6 Gerrymander 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Tizzy in the Sky 7-2 2nd


9th: Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (DD)

As said to Nick Tammaro Friday, ‘Who can’t win?’ Ultra competitive group lines up with what looks like a square pace and there is no reason to not reach for price players. Klaravich home bred Domestic Product (10-1) broke his MDN at 9f and is 10-1 with Chad value pilot Franco. $250k Al Gold buy Drum Roll Please (10-1) ran into tough cookies en route to diploma last out. Copper Tax (10-1) invades from Maryland for Gary Capuano on a 5 race skein and looks tractable. Where’s Chris (6-1) fastest coming in looking turfy long-term (Twirling Candy o/o LDK mare), but won Nashua when tested for stamina by red hot Dutrow. Mage full brother Dornoch logical candidate for Gargan off 8.5f MDN-breaker. Terrific running of the Remsen that serves as front half of Late Double that could be explosive..

Best Value: #2 Domestic Product 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Where’s Chris 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Copper Tax 10-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Drum Roll Please 10-1 3rd


10th: Cigar Mile (G2), 3+, 1m

“No stars, just talent” ~ Michael Tolkin, The Player..

Completely inscrutable gathering that pits variety of quality horseflesh from many points on the compass. Latch on to a concept and take your flyer. For me it’s adept Jeff Runco marauding from Charles Town with streaking and versatile Coastal Mission (12-1) who has won 9 of his last 10 and is sure to be ignored. Sharpened for his speed with bullet halves after proving capable three-turning 9 panels in the WVa Breeders Classic, Coastal Mission & Bocachica can set up shop on the rail with or behind the other speed. If no one wants the point, he can take control or be effective rating inside as he did in the Russell Road two back. Beyond this notion, quite a few prices have looks including easy-to-root-for Three Technique..

Best Value: #1 COASTAL MISSION 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Three Technique 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Pipeline 15-1 9th
Super Add: #6 High Oak 20-1 8th


P6 Grid:

5: 6-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 6 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
10: 1 (A), - (B), 7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x2x1 = $96
All A's: 2x1x2x2x2x1 = $16
Backup (C-A-A-A-A-A): 2x1x2x2x2x1 = $16 (4-5 in 5th)
Backup (A-A-A-A-C-A): 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $16 (5-9 in 9th)
Backup (A-A-A-A-A-C): 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $32 (7-12 in 10th)


P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
10: 1-7 (A), - (B), 6-10-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (A-A-A-A-C): 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (6-10-12 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
10: 1-7-12 (A), - (B), 6-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-A-A-C): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6-10-11 in 10th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Flying to Arizona and they're saying wi-fi is down.. Will post during layover, around 10:30..