5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Oaks Day ~ 1st/4th off the turf..

[Kasept]

[declansharbor]

Is the Edgewood that includes Newspaperofrecord and the 1/9 odds accompanying her part of the Oaks Day P6?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Is the Edgewood that includes Newspaperofrecord and the 1/9 odds accompanying her part of the Oaks Day P6?

Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.

Probably 1/2 and 2/1, with the others 20+ (rightfully so. They can't win.)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.

A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Probably 1/2 and 2/1, with the others 20+ (rightfully so. They can't win.)

I see that's around the ML but I will respectfully disagree. No way those two are that close. They are in different leagues unless somehow Newspaperofrecord forgot how to run.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I see that's around the ML but I will respectfully disagree. No way those two are that close. They are in different leagues unless somehow Newspaperofrecord forgot how to run.

I don’t disagree. My line would be 2/5 and 3/1... I’m just making a ML, with the notation their speed figures are pretty close and the betting public will focus on that. I’ll probably avoid the race as there’s some much more appealing races later.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.

I know it helps the handle b/c everyone is under the impression that there is a free square, but the last couple of years i've actually been trying to ween myself away from Pk3-Pk4-Pk5, etc. wagers when there is a chalk like Newspaperofrecord to start the first leg. My mindset is that everyone will have the horse in some which way shape or form thereby creating more live tickets and pushing down the payout.

-bt-

[moses]

Originally Posted by -BT-

I know it helps the handle b/c everyone is under the impression that there is a free square, but the last couple of years i've actually been trying to ween myself away from Pk3-Pk4-Pk5, etc. wagers when there is a chalk like Newspaperofrecord to start the first leg. My mindset is that everyone will have the horse in some which way shape or form thereby creating more live tickets and pushing down the payout.

-bt-

That is sometimes the case. I like to look for other races in the sequence where I can separate from the pack, though that’s not always the case.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.

Yeah, but usually in cases like these I'd think the objective is also to create a big carryover for the big day. Although with the $.20 minimum, that's pretty unlikely either way.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by -BT-

I know it helps the handle b/c everyone is under the impression that there is a free square, but the last couple of years i've actually been trying to ween myself away from Pk3-Pk4-Pk5, etc. wagers when there is a chalk like Newspaperofrecord to start the first leg. My mindset is that everyone will have the horse in some which way shape or form thereby creating more live tickets and pushing down the payout.

-bt-

I relish these opportunities... Will include the favorite with one or 2 long shots and if she doesn't fire you are competing for a LARGE Pick 3, 4, 5.... Horses are not machines...

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by jms62

I relish these opportunities... Will include the favorite with one or 2 long shots and if she doesn't fire you are competing for a LARGE Pick 3, 4, 5.... Horses are not machines...

i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-

[jms62]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

That’s what I’m talking about. I’m not a horizontal guy in general, but this is good sh!t.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by cakes44

That’s what I’m talking about. I’m not a horizontal guy in general, but this is good sh!t.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

Holy cow. I didn’t remember the pick 5 being that large. Good old Funny Duck.

Anyway, good stuff. I love hearing stuff like this. I’ve been pretty good hitting Pick 3s but I struggle tremendously with the Pick 4 and 5...which I guess is sort of the point.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-

I've been trying more often to go skinny with races I don't like the favorite. Like for the Oaks I really like Restless Rider and think Bellafina cant be beat here. I will either single that one or add Jaywalk but wont be covering Bellafina. Risk/reward

[cakes44]

I definitely think it's worth trying to beat Bellafina.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by jms62

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

If Im reading between the lines correctly, I like your philosophy

[declansharbor]

WOW — Reports on Twitter have Omaha Beach as OUT for the Kentucky Derby. Tough one for Mandella and connections! Ouch!