Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: Gun Runner 115

[Kasept]

SAR Woodward S. (G1): Gun Runner 115 (Candy Ride-ARG) S. Asmussen/F. Geroux
SAR Spinaway S (G1): Lady Ivanka 66 (Tiz Wonderful) R. Rodriguez/I. Ortiz
SAR Saranac S (G3): Voodoo Song 94 (English Channel) L. Rice/J. Lezcano
SAR Glens Falls S (G3): Harmonize 98 (Scat Daddy) W. Mott/J. Velazquez
SAR Hopeful S (G1): Sporting Chance 86 (Tiznow) D. Lukas/L. Saez
SAR Bernard Baruch H (G2): Heart to Heart 104 (English Channel) B. Lynch/I. Ortiz
SAR Prioress S (G2): Vertical Oak 99 (Giant Oak) S. Asmussen/J. Velazquez
SAR Lucky Coin S: We Deer You 98 (Hat Trick-JPN) M. Trombetta/I. Ortiz
SAR P. G. Johnson S: Orbolution 72 (Orb) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez

DMR Del Mar Debutante S (G1): Moonshine Memories 82 (Malibu Moon) S. Callaghan/F. Prat
DMR John C. Mabee S (G2): Cambodia 100 (War Front) T. Proctor/D. Van Dyke
DMR Del Mar Futurity(G1): Bolt d'Oro 85 (Medaglia d'Oro) M. Ruis/C. Nakatani
DMR Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf S: Terra's Angel 58 (Drosselmeyer) D. Keen/S. Risenhoover
DMR C.E.R.F. S: Miss Sunset 89 (Into Mischief) J. Bonde/M. Smith
DMR Del Mar Derby (G2): Sharp Samurai 92 (First Samurai) M. Glatt/G. Stevens
DMR Del Mar Juvenile Turf S: Encumbered 72 (Violence) S. Callaghan/M. Gutierrez
DMR I'm Smokin S: Bookies Luck 77 (Lucky Pulpit) J. Bonde/K. Desormeaux

PRX Smarty Jones S (G3): Pavel 103 (Creative Cause) D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez
PRX Greenwood Cup S (G3): Madefromlucky 96 (Lookin At Lucky) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
PRX Donald LeVine Memorial S: Imperial Hint 109 (Imperialism) L. Carvajal/J. Castellano
PRX Turf Monster S (G3): Pure Sensation 93 (Zensational) C. Clement/K. Carmouche
PRX Marshall Jenney S: Winning the Medal 70 (Medallist) P. Farro/E. Esquivel
PRX Roanoke S: Page McKenney 90 (Eavesdropper) M. Eppler/H. Karamanos
PRX Banjo Picker Sprint S: The Man 94 (Ecclesiastic) J. Servis/J. Vargas
PRX Dr. Garofalo Memorial S: Grand Prix 85 (Tale of the Cat) G. Mandella/J. Ferrer
PRX Mrs. Penny S: Great Soul 85 (Great Notion) T. Proctor/B. Pedroza

GP Florida Sire Susan's Girl S: Starship Bonita 53 (Gone Astray) S. Dwoskin/C. Montalvo
GP Florida Sire Affirmed S: Soutache 88 (Backtalk) R. Nicks/E. Cancel
GP Wasted Tears S: Bonita 86 (Bluegrass Cat) C. Stewart/E. Zayas
GP The Vid H: Galleon Mast 92 (Mizzen Mast) D. Fawkes/T. Gaffalione
GP Groomstick H: Splash Rules 91 (Pomeroy) J. Vinson/T. Gaffalione

WO Belle Mahone S: Gamble's Ghost 83 (Ghostzapper) J. Carroll/L. Contreras
WO Colin S: Like What I See 70 (Bold Warrior) N. Gonzalez/E. Wilson
WO King Corrie S: Yorkton 94 (Speightstown) S. Simon/J. Campbell

SUF Steve Pini Memorial S: Puca -- (Big Brown) W. Mott/A. Lezcano
SUF MA Stallion S: Jeb 65 (Zong) D. Clarke/L. Perez
SUF John Kirby S: Saint Alfred 58 (Dublin) K. Grusmark/T. Piermarini

MTH Sapling S: Bal Harbour 76 (First Samurai) T. Pletcher/C. DeCarlo
MTH Sorority S: Pacific Gale 75 (Flat Out) J. Kimmel/C. DeCarlo

NP Speed to Spare S: Killin Me Smalls -- (Marcavelly) E. Keller/K. Balgobin
NP Birdcatcher S: Shimshine -- (Wilko) E. Bourne/R. Walcott

AP Arlington Heights S: Devileye -- (Indygo Shiner) M. Boyce/S. Sanjur
AP Rolling Meadows S: Babybluesbdancing -- (Sky Mesa) T. Gore/J. Felix

RUI Rio Grande Senor TB horoughbred Futurity: Wheredoesthecashgo -- (Southwestern Heat) J. Marr/M. Fuentes
RUI Ruidoso Downs TB Championship H: Mr. Mooch -- (Tin Can Sailor) J. Lemons/J. Villanueva
RUI Rio Grande Senorita TB Futurity: Fast Gator -- (Diabolical) H. Dominguez/R. Eikleberry

ALB Casino at the Downs TB Derby: My Mirage 73 (Diabolical) D. Cappellucci/J. Bourdieu

TDN Scarlet and Gray H: Proper Discretion 81 (Discreetly Mine) A. Rini/L. Colon

CBY MTA Stallion Auction S: Fireman Oscar -- (Law Enforcement) D. Van Winkle/J. Loveberry

PID Mark McDermott S: Oldzfourfortytwo 67 (Offlee Wild) T. Girten/P. Morales

[freddymo]

115 fig for Gun Runner portends a very large regression for Rally Cry albeit his last race was a tough fig to confirm. I thought they would chop it it 118/9 not 115. I think you can argue the fig should be as high as 121/2. I would think without another 2 turn race on card its a hard educated guess.

Doesnt really matter Gun Runner ran amazingly well who really cares what fig you use. Wish they would run him in JCGC. This elite racing is over from 9/1 till BC day is tiresome,

"Video killed the radio star"... or until the awards show

[cakes44]

Gonna be interesting to see what odds Arrogate and Gun Runner go off at in the BCC.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Gonna be interesting to see what odds Arrogate and Gun Runner go off at in the BCC.

Guessing a lot of pre race media attention on how Arrogate is training will be a strong influence on wagering. When, at his best, Arrogate dispatched Gun Runner like a gnat, people will not forget the PP's. That said who knows till they draw the race. Assuming Baffert is pumped with media and workout reports are glowing, Arrogate will be favored IMO

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Guessing a lot of pre race media attention on how Arrogate is training will be a strong influence on wagering. When, at his best, Arrogate dispatched Gun Runner like a gnat, people will not forget the PP's. That said who knows till they draw the race. Assuming Baffert is pumped with media and workout reports are glowing, Arrogate will be favored IMO

thats a tough call cause in the BC the smart money is not as dominant as reqular pools. I think gun runners gaudy wins on paper probably send him favored, something like 5/2 for GR, 3/1 for Arrogate and 4/1 for Collected.

Gun Runner has to run down collected which wont be as east as Neolithic.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

115 fig for Gun Runner portends a very large regression for Rally Cry albeit his last race was a tough fig to confirm. I thought they would chop it it 118/9 not 115. I think you can argue the fig should be as high as 121/2. I would think without another 2 turn race on card its a hard educated guess.

Doesnt really matter Gun Runner ran amazingly well who really cares what fig you use. Wish they would run him in JCGC. This elite racing is over from 9/1 till BC day is tiresome,

"Video killed the radio star"... or until the awards show

Rally Cry 99

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rally Cry 99

One thing is certain, beyond Gun Runner the older dirt runners, well we can include the 2 and 3 year olds, have been horrible at nyra all year long.

I think shippers or horses based in other parts of the country won just about every big race on dirt.

[10 pnt move up]

66 for the Spinaway

I know it was really slow but I will wait and judge the winner when she is not kept so close to the pace, I think the race dynamics on paper probably made her rider thing to stay with the top two that she needed that.

Of course we really wont know until the BC where these horses in NY go two turns, unless she goes to Kee.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rally Cry 99

He ran 109 last and Beyer himself suggested that fig was lower then they could have assigned him "it could have been 115" So giving him a 99 IMO is a fairly dramatic regression. Look its a educated guess, the 109 was an educated guess and was throttled back. Very hard to determine much when no routes were run yesterday.

It's not important anyways. More a curiosity then anything else

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He ran 109 last and Beyer himself suggested that fig was lower then they could have assigned him "it could have been 115" So giving him a 99 IMO is a fairly dramatic regression. Look its a educated guess, the 109 was an educated guess and was throttled back. Very hard to determine much when no routes were run yesterday.

It's not important anyways. More a curiosity then anything else

He should have regressed big time, he was on the goldest of rails unopposed which often produces big numbers. I think his effort was much closer to his Met Mile in similar situation, though off hand have no idea what he got for that figure.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He ran 109 last and Beyer himself suggested that fig was lower then they could have assigned him "it could have been 115" So giving him a 99 IMO is a fairly dramatic regression. Look its a educated guess, the 109 was an educated guess and was throttled back. Very hard to determine much when no routes were run yesterday.

It's not important anyways. More a curiosity then anything else

I will give you another horse who had this same profile for tomorrow to be against, Mojovation.

[cmorioles]

The time of the Susan's Girl is a joke. No way in hell the colts were three seconds faster than the fillies, not even close.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He ran 109 last and Beyer himself suggested that fig was lower then they could have assigned him "it could have been 115" So giving him a 99 IMO is a fairly dramatic regression. Look its a educated guess, the 109 was an educated guess and was throttled back. Very hard to determine much when no routes were run yesterday.

It's not important anyways. More a curiosity then anything else

Sprints and routes at Saratoga are usually really consistent. I rarely separate the two for variant purposes when track is fast.

[Kasept]

SAR Hopeful S (G1): Sporting Chance 86 (Tiznow) D. Lukas/L. Saez
SAR Bernard Baruch H (G2): Heart to Heart 104 (English Channel) B. Lynch/I. Ortiz
SAR Prioress S (G2): Vertical Oak 99 (Giant Oak) S. Asmussen/J. Velazquez

DMR Del Mar Futurity(G1): Bolt d'Oro 85 (Medaglia d'Oro) M. Ruis/C. Nakatani
DMR Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf S: Terra's Angel 58 (Drosselmeyer) D. Keen/S. Risenhoover
DMR C.E.R.F. S: Miss Sunset 89 (Into Mischief) J. Bonde/M. Smith
DMR Del Mar Derby (G2): Sharp Samurai 92 (First Samurai) M. Glatt/G. Stevens
DMR Del Mar Juvenile Turf S: Encumbered 72 (Violence) S. Callaghan/M. Gutierrez

PRX Smarty Jones S (G3): Pavel 103 (Creative Cause) D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez
PRX Greenwood Cup S (G3): Madefromlucky 96 (Lookin At Lucky) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
PRX Donald LeVine Memorial S: Imperial Hint 109 (Imperialism) L. Carvajal/J. Castellano
PRX Turf Monster S (G3): Pure Sensation 93 (Zensational) C. Clement/K. Carmouche

RUI Rio Grande Senor TB horoughbred Futurity: Wheredoesthecashgo -- (Southwestern Heat) J. Marr/M. Fuentes
RUI Ruidoso Downs TB Championship H: Mr. Mooch -- (Tin Can Sailor) J. Lemons/J. Villanueva
RUI Rio Grande Senorita TB Futurity: Fast Gator -- (Diabolical) H. Dominguez/R. Eikleberry

ALB Casino at the Downs TB Derby: My Mirage 73 (Diabolical) D. Cappellucci/J. Bourdieu

WO King Corrie S: Yorkton 94 (Speightstown) S. Simon/J. Campbell

TDN Scarlet and Gray H: Proper Discretion 81 (Discreetly Mine) A. Rini/L. Colon

AP Rolling Meadows S: Babybluesbdancing -- (Sky Mesa) T. Gore/J. Felix

CBY MTA Stallion Auction S: Fireman Oscar -- (Law Enforcement) D. Van Winkle/J. Loveberry

GP The Vid H: Galleon Mast 92 (Mizzen Mast) D. Fawkes/T. Gaffalione
GP Groomstick H: Splash Rules 91 (Pomeroy) J. Vinson/T. Gaffalione

PID Mark McDermott S: Oldzfourfortytwo 67 (Offlee Wild) T. Girten/P. Morales

SUF MA Stallion S: Jeb 65 (Zong) D. Clarke/L. Perez
SUF John Kirby S: Saint Alfred 58 (Dublin) K. Grusmark/T. Piermarini

[freddymo]

Bolt D'oro looks like running fool. I thought that was mighty impressive

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Bolt D'oro looks like running fool. I thought that was mighty impressive

The fourth place finisher was the most interesting to me. Dia De Pago I think was the name.

So far out of the limited action I've seen from this crop, he'd be the one I would tab to watch out for as the distances increase.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The fourth place finisher was the most interesting to me. Dia De Pago I think was the name.

So far out of the limited action I've seen from this crop, he'd be the one I would tab to watch out for as the distances increase.

Yeah closed very well. The winner just looked different to the rest. Not sure I trust the trainer to keep him going forward

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Yeah closed very well. The winner just looked different to the rest. Not sure I trust the trainer to keep him going forward

I agree, but the horse is nice.

We will see how these horses do around two turns, its a different game.