Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

BEL Joe Hirsch Turf S (G1): Beach Patrol 109 (Lemon Drop Kid) C. Brown/J. Rosario
BEL Beldame S (G1): Elate 97 (Medaglia d'Oro) W. Mott/J. Ortiz
BEL Vosburgh S (G1): Takaful 107 (Bernardini) K. McLaughlin/J. Ortiz
BEL Pilgrim S (G3): Seabhac 75 (Scat Daddy) T. Pletcher/L. Saez
BEL Temperence Hill S: Madefromlucky 90 (Lookin At Lucky) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
BEL Miss Grillo S (G3): Significant Form 78 (Creative Cause) C. Brown/I. Ortiz

SA FrontRunner S (G1): Bolt d'Oro 100 (Medaglia d'Oro) M. Ruis/C. Nakatani
SA Rodeo Drive S (G1): Avenge 95 (War Front) R. Mandella/F. Prat
SA Chandelier S (G1): Moonshine Memories 86 (Malibu Moon) S. Callaghan/F. Prat
SA Awesome Again S (G1): Mubtaahij-IRE 102 (Dubawi-IRE) B. Baffert/D. Van Dyke
SA Zenyatta S (G1): Paradise Woods 105 (Union Rags) R. Mandella/F. Prat
SA John Henry Turf S (G2): Itsinthepost-FR -- (American Post-GB) J. Mullins/T. Baze
SA Eddie D S (G3): Mr. Roary 101 (Scat Daddy) G. Papaprodromou/T. Conner

CD Lukas Classic S (G3): Honorable Duty 100 (Distorted Humor) B. Walsh/C. Lanerie
CD Ack Ack S (G3): Awesome Slew 98 (Awesome Again) M. Casse/C. Lanerie
CD Jefferson Cup S: Mr. Misunderstood 89 (Archarcharch) B. Cox/F. Geroux

GP Florida Sire My Dear Girl S: Starship Bonita 71 (Gone Astray) S. Dwoskin/C. Montalvo
GP Florida Sire In Reality S: Soutache 77 (Backtalk) R. Nicks/T. Gaffalione
GP Mr. Steele S: Galleon Mast 93 (Mizzen Mast) D. Fawkes/T. Gaffalione
GP Our Dear Peggy S: Blonde Bomber 68 (Fort Larned) S. Gold/E. Jaramillo
GP Monroe S: King's Ghost 69 (Ghostzapper) M. Wolfson/J. Ruiz
GP Armed Forces S: Renaisance Frolic 47 (Paynter) D. Fawkes/J. Batista

LRL Commonwealth Derby (G3): Just Howard 96 (English Channel) H. Motion/F. Lynch
LRL Balt/Wash Intl Turf Cup S (G2): Projected-GB 97 (Showcasing (GB) C. Brown/N. Juarez
LRL Commonwealth Oaks (G3): Rymska-FR 88 (Le Havre-IRE) C. Brown/F. Lynch
LRL Oakley S: Exaggerated 80 (Blame) A. Delacour/D. Centeno
LRL Punch Line S: Lawyer Dave 68 (Lawyer Ron) C. Morgan/S. Hamilton
LRL Jamestown S: Yes to the Dress 65 (Congrats) R. Moquett/J. Lezcano
LRL Bert Allen S: Special Envoy 80 (Stroll) A. Delacour/D. Centeno
LRL Brookmeade S: Queen Caroline 79 (Blame) M. Matz/F. Lynch

WO Durham Cup S (G3): Melmich 96 (Wilko) K. Attard/E. Da Silva
WO La Lorgnette S: Let It Ride Mom 85 (Into Mischief) M. Casse/P. Husbands
WO Grey S (G3): Archaggelos 83 (Temple City) M. Dickinson/R. Hernandez

FL New York Breeders' Futurity: Analyze the Odds 67 (Overanalyze) T. Pletcher/C. DeCarlo

DEL Tax Free Shopping Distaff S: Hailey's Flip 82 (Archarcharch) G. Capuano/J. Torres
DEL New Castle S: Winplaceorshowono 82 (Dance With Ravens) R. Alfano/A. Cintron
DEL George Rosenberger Memorial S: Laur Net 84 (Strong Hope) A. Gonzalez/S. Spieth
DEL Small Wonder S: Enchanted Star 67 (El Padrino) G. Capuano/J. Torres
DEL First State Dash S: Whereshetoldmetogo 72 (El Padrino) A. Pecoraro/V. Lebron
DEL DTHA Governors Day H: Afleet Willy 94 (Wilburn) C. Gonzalez/J. Torres

HST Fantasy S: Here's Hannah -- (Numaany) J. Morrison/R. Hamel
HST Ascot Graduation S: Wise Market -- (Mass Market) P. Hall/A. Perez

OTP Oak Tree Juvenile S: Respect the Hustle 70 (Colonel John) B. McLean/J. Hernandez

[10 pnt move up]

Paradise Woods got a smaller figure than Bolt D Oro.......that would mean the track changed considerably.

I will go with the Timeform figure which I know will be better than Paradise Woods.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Paradise Woods got a smaller figure than Bolt D Oro.......that would mean the track changed considerably.

I will go with the Timeform figure which I know will be better than Paradise Woods.

Using a 4 horse race, with loose speed going gate to wire as a MEANINGFUL hallmark for the Forerunner is not prudent. Who cares what fig Paradise Woods received it means so little IMO.

Seems like there is a strong tendency to place as much value on the 3rd place finisher and their assumed ability as there is in evaluating raw time

[10 pnt move up]

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

When science meets art and art wins

[Kasept]

SA John Henry Turf S (G2): Itsinthepost-FR -- (American Post-GB) J. Mullins/T. Baze

BEL Temperence Hill S: Madefromlucky 90 (Lookin At Lucky) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
BEL Miss Grillo S (G3): Significant Form 78 (Creative Cause) C. Brown/I. Ortiz

WO Grey S (G3): Archaggelos 83 (Temple City) M. Dickinson/R. Hernandez

HST Ascot Graduation S: Wise Market -- (Mass Market) P. Hall/A. Perez

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

What I do not agree with is why the Excelsior wasn't broken out in the same fashion. Was it just because they were 4 year old's? I really don't question Beyers expertise or opinion its the methodology I don't get. The Excelsior was a rock solid figure but the Forerunner isn't? In the case of the Excelsior it was very hard to stomach Send it In running an Arrogate type figure. Is it more or less plausible that a improving colt ran a 107/8 then Send it In and Tu Bruti running 114's.. It's just a discussion it isnt a knock.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What I do not agree with is why the Excelsior wasn't broken out in the same fashion. Was it just because they were 4 year old's? I really don't question Beyers expertise or opinion its the methodology I don't get. The Excelsior was a rock solid figure but the Forerunner isn't? In the case of the Excelsior it was very hard to stomach Send it In running an Arrogate type figure. Is it more or less plausible that a improving colt ran a 107/8 then Send it In and Tu Bruti running 114's.. It's just a discussion it isnt a knock.

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

[SniperSB23]

Looking at the races before and after the Excelsior for the 3rd and 5th place finishers it is tough to make the argument that the Excelsior figure is any more than a point or two too high.

Doyouknowsomething - 86/95/99/98/93
Discreet Lover - 92/92/93/85/85

I don't have the subsequent figures for Hereditary or Admiral Blue since I can't get Formulator on this device but Hereditary came in with 95/89/84 and ran a 94 or 95 while Admiral Blue came in with 94/96 and ran about a 91. Lot of races you can nitpick at the Beyer figures but the Excelsior does not seem like a good example.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

After listening to Beyer on Steve's show, the time of the race mattered little (at least that is how I understood him). "I thought pre race the winner would run a 95" once you have a predisposition to a # this fig was always going to revolve(+/-) around that notion. Basically he used a fig that was a few lengths greater then his preconceived idea based and assigned a number that worked for him. Greg I think you are right its easy to go back and re look at it.

I applaud him coming on air and explaining the thought process

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

Bingo

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

This is, yet another, meaningless post from you, Greg.

You're both smart enough and knowledgeable enough to know that what Beyer did makes sense.

[knickslions2]

Andy Beyer gave a great explanation of his decision on Steves show. Anybody with concerns on the figures should listen.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

After listening to Beyer on Steve's show, the time of the race mattered little (at least that is how I understood him). "I thought pre race the winner would run a 95" once you have a predisposition to a # this fig was always going to revolve(+/-) around that notion. Basically he used a fig that was a few lengths greater then his preconceived idea based and assigned a number that worked for him. Greg I think you are right its easy to go back and re look at it.

I applaud him coming on air and explaining the thought process

This has always been my problem with the figures. I've always thought that they should tell the story of what happened that day and that previous races should have no bearing on that. I get the whole thing about having a expectation of what you should see and if the figure comes out far different than the norm, looking for reasons why. I've just always felt that those reasons should be confined to things that factored that day only. I've always hated using future races to go back and adjust past ones. So many things go into each performance. Today, you might not be cranked up for your best, it's a big field, it's just basically a prep race, etc. Next time is the big race, small field, different tactics used, track watered different, hot day, big crowd, etc. So using prior or subsequent races to judge today has always felt wrong to me. I'm obviously not on Beyer's level so I'm not questioning him. Just saying this is the issue I've always had. I'd like to see each story speak for itself and let the handicappers delve into why that figure came out like it did and determine if they feel like a particular high or low figure is an aberration or maybe a sign of what's to come.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This has always been my problem with the figures. I've always thought that they should tell the story of what happened that day and that previous races should have no bearing on that. I get the whole thing about having a expectation of what you should see and if the figure comes out far different than the norm, looking for reasons why. I've just always felt that those reasons should be confined to things that factored that day only. I've always hated using future races to go back and adjust past ones. So many things go into each performance. Today, you might not be cranked up for your best, it's a big field, it's just basically a prep race, etc. Next time is the big race, small field, different tactics used, track watered different, hot day, big crowd, etc. So using prior or subsequent races to judge today has always felt wrong to me. I'm obviously not on Beyer's level so I'm not questioning him. Just saying this is the issue I've always had. I'd like to see each story speak for itself and let the handicappers delve into why that figure came out like it did and determine if they feel like a particular high or low figure is an aberration or maybe a sign of what's to come.

Did you listen to Beyer on Byk's show today?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is, yet another, meaningless post from you, Greg.

You're both smart enough and knowledgeable enough to know that what Beyer did makes sense.

Where did I disagree with it? I can see both sides.

You are making this personal, why I do not know?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Where did I disagree with it? I can see both sides.

You are making this personal, why I do not know?

I'm sorry. I misunderstood. Your new misanthropic persona has thrown me for a loop.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry. I misunderstood. Your new misanthropic persona has thrown me for a loop.

You know better than most I do not have the comprehension for words like that.

I did google it, nice touch!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

If you believe Paradise Woods ran a faster race then the colt, you believe one of 2 things: the track changed or the time of one if not both of the races are wrong. Perhaps the fig with Paradise Woods is too high? Perhaps a 4 horse loose on the lead race is not a "she is what she is" race, and is misleading? I can go with the colt didn't run a 113 and ran 100.. I cant go with Paradise Woods 1.44.34 is faster then 1.43.54. Perhaps the race to cut loose was the Zenyatta? The problem with cutting the Zenyatta loose is its not unusual for loose speed horses to run their best figs when they have dynamics their own way, which she did. I dont know just an interesting conversation