BC ANALYSIS: Part IV

[Kasept]

$3MM BC Turf (Gr. I), 3+, 12f-T (Super)

Another race that appears to breather for P3, P4 and P6 players as the clear favorites look like the most likely winners...

1. Go Deputy (Peslier/Pletcher) 6-1: Has had best campaign yet and may be forgotten on board; Using.

2. T. H. Approval (Solis/Inda) 15-1: Absense of Tin Man leaves this nice Gr. II winner as West Coast's rep; Offers value and will be flying late; Use.

3. Icy Atlantic (Luzzi/Pletcher) 30-1: Here as a pacesetter for English Channel, but that sets upo everyone else from off the pace too...

4. Scorpion (Kinane/O'Brien) 6-1: A bit under the radar is this classy 4 year old that won the '05 St. Leger; Clearly was set up to make this trip and looms as the one that can stop the Americans in this Euro-dominated event.

5. Rush Bay (Bejarano/Amoss) 20-1: Rounding into a very nice horse for Amoss, but seems a little "light" for these at this point; Loves the course though and could be worth throwing in at the bottom of deepest tris and supers.

6. Cacique (Prado/Frankel) 4-1: Juddmonte's Danehill 5yo has been terrific since arriving in the US and has a chance to capture turf horse Eclipse here; Must prove himself at the distance in first try, but Prado hasn't been out of the exacta with him yet.

7. Hurricane Run (Soumillon/Fabre) 3-1: Seems thatr conventional wisdom has him "over the top" and that coming here was an afterthought; Must respect '05 Arc winner but tend to prefer for share than as winner.

8. Better Talk Now (Dominguez/Motion) 12-1: '04 winner tanked as defending champ at BEL and has been just good this year winning pair of Gr. II's; Clobbered in top company though and leaning against using this 7yo war horse from one of the best trainers out there.

9. Red Rocks (Dettori/Meehan) 10-1: Son of Galileo has been second in good company all year; 3yo doesn't get much help at the scales and looks just fair as major player this heat; Passing on one being mentioned as "now" horse.

10. English Channel (JVelazquez/Pletcher) 7-2: Smart Striuke red from Pletcher just 3 lengths from 6 for 6 season that's featured 3 Gr. I wins; Honest battler will have his chance; Part of the scene at the wire but not our pick at likely short number.

11. Silverfoot (Guidry/Stewart) 30-1: Horse for course a perfect 4 of 4 this oval and career best try could land him at bottom of super; Note the 4th by 3.5L to Channel, Cacique in the United Nations; For deep ticks.

SELECTIONS:

1. #4 Scorpion 6-1
2. #6 Cacique 4-1
A. #2 T. H. Approval 15-1
B. #10 English Channel 7-2

WIDE EXOTICS: #11 Silverfoot 30-1/#1 Go Deputy 6-1



$5MM BC Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 10f (Super)

1. Brother Derek (Solis/Hendricks) 30-1: Took 5x GS winner just one start to return to earlier high level and Handricks can only wonder what might have happened last Downs visit had Benchmark Cal-bred drawn inside; Expect good effort Saturday, but how high can he finish on the chart even with a career try? Super bottom at best.

2. Premium Tap (Prado/Kimmel) 30-1: First of two Pleasant Tap sons signed on, Woodward winner seems no worse for wear from wacky adventure at Turfway last out; Has worked fabulously preparing for Classic try and is alternating efforts with Saturday a "go"; Expecting big run with exacta visit not impossible.

3. Bernardini (Castellano/Albertrani) 1-1: A.P. Indy Darley homebred tries for 7th win in 8th, and likely final, career start; Camps seems divided rooting for or against, and having seen him up close his last four, we're rooting for; Will have to be as good as he can be however to beat Invasor, David Junior and Co. and while not invincible in the day's feature, appears as imposing a favorite as we've seen in this event.

4. George Washington (Kinane/O'Brien) 10-1: Would have been the heavy Mile fave, and believe decision to go here a bit wrong-headed; Hasn't been beyond a mile.. Hasn't run on dirt and isn't bred for it.. Has behavioral issues.. Other than those factors, he's golden.

5. Lawyer Ron (Valenzuela/Pletcher) 20-1: With Badge of Silver, one of the day's most intriguingf entrants making first start out of the T.A.P. shed; Have hated him all year, but like him in this spot with new a.m. handling and likely a new attitude; PVal a curious jock choice, and apparently NOT Pletcher's; Will offer lots of value and looks like a use in tris and supers.

6. Perfect Drift (Gomez/Johnson) 20-1: Grizzled veteran keeps trying as he makes his 5th.. FIFTH.. BC Classic start; Has retained form though speed has waned a bit and will certainly make his patented late move; This field is better than the '05 edition in which he was third however, and we can't see him any better than 4th.

7. David Junior (Spencer/Meehan) 10-1: True 10f runner, albeit on turf, makes transition to the American racing world for which he is bred; The 'other' Pleasant Tap here, a FL bred, chestnut has annexed three Group I races including this year's Eclipse and last year's Champion; Savvy trainer Meehan sky high about his chances and we are too; Must use.

8. Lava Man (Nakatani/O'Neill) 6-1: Greatest claim ever built on his legend this annum with 7 for 7 campaign worth $2.7MM; Known as a bad shipper, 5yo arrived early and may be better acclimated for this try than he has been for previous out of town tries; Bigger issue is serious pace scenario that finds company for him on the front end, so HOL Gold Cup rating tactics will be needed for anything more than a minor award here; Leaning against.

9. Giacomo (Smith/Shirreffs) 30-1: Was coming late in the Goodwood to gain show slot behind Lava and Brother receiving best speed figs yet in his three win career; While one of those wins came on this oval, he's yet to run fast enough to hit the board in this group; Good try likely but super bottom absolute best to expect.

10. Flower Alley (JVelazquez/Pletcher) 30-1: '05 Travers hero seemed ready for the shed two months ago enduring pair of awful tries in the Woodward and Whitney; Speed has vacated his arsenal but it's possible Team Todd has discovered whatever was ailing last year's Classic runner-up behind St. Liam and he could run well; Can't believe Melnyk would want to diminish whatever luster is left on $2.5MM winner, and it may be prudent to include him underneath on tri and super tags.

11. Invasor (Jara/McLaughlin) 5-1: Favored 'Dini not the only one loss runner in this field as Argentinian wonder horse is 8 of 9 with trio of Gr. I scores since arriving in KMc's shed; Has plus stalking style for this, young stakes stealing jock and looks like the most likely upsetter in group; Needs to be covered on top in multi-race wagers as cover.

12. Suave (Desormeaux/McGee) 30-1: 5yo with solid credentials has tendency to need things his way to succeed, and figures to be on the lead a good part of the way here; If allowed a backstretch breather slowing the pace, could take them a long way down the stretch and even grab bottom of wrung of exotics at boxcars; Training great, looking super; Intriguing.

13. Sun King (Bejarano/Zito) 15-1: Zito-Farmer 4yo belying sire Charismatic's reputation for throwing cripples as he continues to improve and build resume; Doesn't own Gr. I win, but has been out of the super just twice in 11 tries at the top level; Gets pace target here as well as extra real estate and along with Junior and 'Vasor figures among top 4.

SELECTIONS:

1. #3 Bernardini 1-1 2ND
2. #11 Invasor 5-1 WON
A. #7 David Junior 10-1
B. #13 Sun King 15-1

WIDE EXOTICS: #2 Premium Tap 30-1 3RD/#5 Lawyer Ron 20-1

EX BX: $39.60 ($2)
TRI BX: $690? ($2)

[57rick]

Thank you Steve for all of your time and effort.
I very much appriciate all of the info!
Best of luck,
Rick57

[GenuineRisk]

As always, Steve; I love reading your analyses. I'm waiting with bated breath for the one on the Classic!

[AeWingnut]

Thanks for the help. I hope you sign some big ones

Good luck to all