Weekend Stakes Beyers: Goldencents 105, Verrazano 95

[Kasept]

95 Beyer for Verrazano in the Wood; Other AQU Stakes: Swagger Jack 105 (Carter); Close Hatches 85 (Gazelle); Declan's Warrior 97 (Bay Shore); Withgreatpleasure 86 (Ruffian)..

105 Beyer for Goldencents win in the @santaanitapark Derby; Other SA stakes: Jimmy Creed 102 (Potrero Grande) Beholder 96 (SA Oaks); Scarlet Strike 80 (Providencia); Battle Force 91 (Thunder Road)..

[Calzone Lord]

101 for the Baffert maiden, I assume?

[HaloWishingwell]

Johnny V. has a big decision to make. Hard to imagine a jockey getting off an undefeated favorite especially trained by Pletcher but Orb looks like a better option for the Derby.

[dylbert]

Goldencents, 2012 Delta Jackpot winner, wins Santa Anita Derby. Does this still make Jackpot an unimportant race as suggested by many turf pundits?

Goldencents -- Grade I winner, SA Derby, and Grade III Sham winner (3-2-0-0)
Itsmyluckyday -- Grade I placed, Florida Derby, and Grade III Holy Bull winner (4-2-1-0)
Mylute -- Grade II placed, Louisiana Derby (3-1-1-0)

Collectively since Jackpot, these three have run (10-5-2-0). Currently, 3rd, 9th, and 13th, respectively, in Kentucky Derby points standings.

Can you say Grade II Delta Jackpot? Or heaven forbid, Grade I!

[Calzone Lord]

The 2nd place finisher in the Sunland Derby was 20 lengths up the track in the Delta Jackpot as well.

It was a very strong race last year for sure ... but in the past, it usually hasn't been.

[pick4]

The Wood which was run at 6:30pm had Verrazano got a 95 BSF
The Gazelle which was run at 4:39pm had Close Hatches got an 85 BSF.

Splits
Wood :24.89 49.62 1:13.74 1:37.72 1:50.27
Gazelle :24.23 47.47 1:10.95 1:36.50 1:50.53

Did the track slow down that much in 2 hours? I know it was windy at times yesterday. The horse who figured to set the pace in the Wood did not get out of the gate so I believe the early pace would have been quicker.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

The Wood which was run at 6:30pm had Verrazano got a 95 BSF
The Gazelle which was run at 4:39pm had Close Hatches got an 85 BSF.

Splits
Wood :24.89 49.62 1:13.74 1:37.72 1:50.27
Gazelle :24.23 47.47 1:10.95 1:36.50 1:50.53

Did the track slow down that much in 2 hours? I know it was windy at times yesterday. The horse who figured to set the pace in the Wood did not get out of the gate so I believe the early pace would have been quicker.

I personally had very distinct variant splits on the card, one before the 10th and one after the 4th or so, don't remember exactly.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by pick4

The Wood which was run at 6:30pm had Verrazano got a 95 BSF
The Gazelle which was run at 4:39pm had Close Hatches got an 85 BSF.

Splits
Wood :24.89 49.62 1:13.74 1:37.72 1:50.27
Gazelle :24.23 47.47 1:10.95 1:36.50 1:50.53

Did the track slow down that much in 2 hours? I know it was windy at times yesterday. The horse who figured to set the pace in the Wood did not get out of the gate so I believe the early pace would have been quicker.

Judging by these splits and final time was Verrazano lucky to be getting a 95 Beyer?

[pick4]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Judging by these splits and final time was Verrazano lucky to be getting a 95 Beyer?

I do not know the answer to that question. I do know that the person who assigned the BSF did project that the track slowed down by about 4 lengths between 4:39 and 6:30.

It was windy in New York on Saturday and I know the wind off the Bay is very strong at times. I was not at Aqueduct so I cannot verify the effects of the wind. My opinion is they projected downward the BSF of the Gazelle based on the recent final BSF's assigned to the fillies in their races.

I do not believe the track slowed down 4 lengths between the Gazelle and the Wood. I think Verrazano will be a vulnerable favorite and will not hit the board in the Derby.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

I do not believe the track slowed down 4 lengths between the Gazelle and the Wood. I think Verrazano will be a vulnerable favorite and will not hit the board in the Derby.

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

[Kasept]

AQU Wood Memorial S (G1): Verrazano 95 (More Than Ready) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
AQU Carter H (G1): Swagger Jack 105 (Smart Strike) M. Wolfson/I. Ortiz
AQU Ruffian H (G2): Withgreatpleasure 86 (Hold That Tiger) D. Nunn/J. Velazquez
AQU Gazelle S (G2): Close Hatches 88 (First Defence) W. Mott/J. Rosario
AQU Bay Shore S (G3): Declan's Warrior 97 (Majestic Warrior) N. Zito/J. Lezcano
AQU Fit to Fight S: Battier 88 (Tale of the Cat) P. Andrade/A. Castillo

SA Santa Anita Derby (G1): Goldencents 105 (Into Mischief) D. O'Neill/K. Krigger
SA Santa Anita Oaks (G1): Beholder 96 (Henny Hughes) R. Mandella/G. Gomez
SA Providencia S (G3): Scarlet Strike 80 (Smart Strike) J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano
SA Potrero Grande S (G2): Jimmy Creed 102 (Distorted Humor) R. Mandella/G. Gomez
SA Thunder Road S: Battle Force 91 (Giant's Causeway) J. Shirreffs/C. Nakatani
SA American Beauty S: I Dazzle -- (Hold That Tiger) J. Sadler/R. Bejarano

KEE Ashland S (G1): Emollient 97 (Empire Maker) W. Mott/M. Smith
KEE Transylvania S (G3): Jack Milton 88 (War Front) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez

CRC Calder Derby: Sr. Quisqueyano 98 (Exclusive Quality) L. Olivares/C. Olivero

PIM Dahlia S: Embarr 87 (Royal Academy) S. Cooney/F. Boyce
PIM Mister Diz S: Ben's Cat 91 (Parker's Storm Cat) K. Leatherbury/J. Pimentel

OP Bachelor S: Officer Alex 93 (Officer) L. Whiting/A. Birzer

GG Golden Poppy S: Luscious Lonna -- (Benchmark) N. Sloan/J. Velazquez

TAM Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore S: City of Weston 89 (Holy Bull) A. Sano/P. Lopez
TAM Distaff Turf S: Hooh Why 88 (Cloud Hopping) R. Slomkowski/R. Allen
TAM Journeyman Stud Sophomore Turf S: Boy of Summer 77 (Exclusive Quality) R. Garcia/D. Centeno
TAM Besilu Stables Turf Classic S: Hobbs 87 (Put It Back) K. Mongeon/D. Centeno
TAM Hilton Garden/Hampton Inn Suites Sprint S: Wild About Chrome 84 (Indian Ocean) J. McCullough/R. Allen
TAM Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies S: Putitinmypocket 66 (Put It Back) W. Kaplan/J. Leyva

[pick4]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.

Let me ask this a simpler way. Did the speed for the one turn races also change after the Gazelle, or at the least after the Wood. If they did, Beyer split the variant. If they didn't, he broke the race out as a judgement call.

Trust me, I don't need a refresher on figure making.

[RockHardTen1985]

Was Emollients number so big they are waiting to release it?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

101 for the Baffert maiden, I assume?

Yup..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Was Emollients number so big they are waiting to release it?

Emollient 97

[Alabama Stakes]

in the Wood at least they were running 24's after a half mile. the other race last 1/8 was 14. about 10 lengths slower than how they came home in the Wood

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

in the Wood at least they were running 24's after a half mile. the other race last 1/8 was 14. about 10 lengths slower than how they came home in the Wood

Gee, I wonder why?

[Alabama Stakes]

don't you think running fast for a sustained period to end the race, is more impressive than a race which slowed to a crawl cause a quick2nd and 3rd quarter ?

I think those fillies are alright too.
I still consider Verrazano the only real threat to Revolutionary, now that Flashback is out too. It looks almost too easy. If the pace goes, he'll be comin round the mountain picken em up and layin them down, and win by many.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Let me ask this a simpler way. Did the speed for the one turn races also change after the Gazelle, or at the least after the Wood. If they did, Beyer split the variant. If they didn't, he broke the race out as a judgement call.

Trust me, I don't need a refresher on figure making.

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?