Weekend Stakes Beyers: Melatonin 108

[Kasept]

SA Gold Cup at Santa Anita S (G1): Melatonin 108 (Kodiak Kowboy) D. Hofmans/J. Talamo
SA Triple Bend S (G1): Lord Nelson 99 (Pulpit) B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
SA Desert Stormer II S: Shh She's Ours 100 (Tiz Wonderful) J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza
SA McCann's Mojave H: Soi Phet 102 (Tizbud) L. Powell/K. Desormeaux
SA ALW/N1X (8.5f): Arrogate 102 (Unbridled's Song) B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
SA 3yo-MSW ( 1m): Westfest 82 (Unbridled's Song) (B. Baffert/R. Bejarano)

TDN Ohio Derby: Mo Tom 95 (Uncle Mo) T. Amoss/J. Castellano
TDN Petro Memorial H: Justalittlesmoke 73 (Smoke Glacken) R. Gorham/T. Houghton

BEL Bed o' Roses H (G3): By the Moon 96 (Indian Charlie) M. Nevin/J. Ortiz
BEL New York Stallion S: Cloud Control 75 (Freud) J. Kimmel/A. Arroyo
BEL New York Stallion S: Louisville First 73 (Girolamo) G. Weaver/E. Cancel
BEL OC/N2X (8.5f): Far From Over 104 (Blame) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
BEL OC/C (8.5f-T): Robillard 94 (Distorted Humor) K. McLaughlin/K. Carmouche)
BEL OC/N1X (8.5f-T): Take These Chains 84 (Fastnet Rock-AUS) C. Brown/J. Castellano)

WO Nandi S: Conquest Vivi 75 (Court Vision) M. Casse/P. Husbands
WO Frost King S: Pachi Cruze 54 (Valid N Bold) J. Corrales/E. Da Silva

MTH Eatontown S (G3): Isabella Sings 97 (Eskendereya) T. Pletcher/P. Lopez
MTH Mr. Prospector S: Chublicious 104 (Hey Chub) J. Navarro/A. Gallardo

AP Chicago H (G3): Sarah Sis 91 (Sharp Humor ) I. Mason/J. Valdivia

PRX Turning for Home S: Encryption 82 (Exchange Rate) K. Breen/N. Juarez

GP Boca Chica S: Moment of Delight 87 (A. P. Warrior) S. Gold/E. Castro
GP Sea of Grass S: We're All Set 92 (With Distinction) P. Walder/R. Hernandez

PIM All Brandy S: Debbie's Tude 84 (Aptitude) W. Komlo/L. Garcia
PIM Find S: Eyeplayeveryday 84 (Jazil) W. Komlo/F. Lynch
PIM White Oak Farm S: Two Notch Road 86 (Partner's Hero) G. Thompson/J. Pimentel
PIM Edward P. Evans S: Rose Brier 79 (Mizzen Mast) J. Cibelli/A. Cintron
PIM Nellie Mae Cox S: Queen Caroline 84 (Blame) M. Matz/A. Cintron

CD Roxelana S: Athena 85 (Street Sense) H. Pitts/B. Hernandez

OTP Oak Tree H: Bronze Star 83 (Tapit) J. Hollendorfer/R. Gonzalez

EMD Kent S: Find Joy 71 (Drosselmeyer) F. Lucarelli/I. Enriquez

[KidCruz]

How does Lord Nelson get a 99 and Shh-She's Ours gets a 100 (according to Brad Free) the next day stopping the clock at 1:07.75? Does anyone else agree with this? Way too much unnecessary subjectivity in my opinion. Aren't Beyer speed figures supposed to remove subjectivity? I simply don't believe the track changed that that much in than 24 hrs.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

How does Lord Nelson get a 99 and Shh-She's Ours gets a 100 (according to Brad Free) the next day stopping the clock at 1:07.75? Does anyone else agree with this? Way too much unnecessary subjectivity in my opinion. Aren't Beyer speed figures supposed to remove subjectivity? I simply don't believe the track changed that that much in than 24 hrs.

What were your variants for the two different race days?

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What were your variants for the two different race days?

My variant has it faster Sunday. No argument here. There is enough evidence of that with the low level claimers going 5.5 and the lower level milers being on terms with Westfest. That said, I think Beyer exaggerated the variant so as to flatter the G1. You have different numbers?

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

My variant has it faster Sunday. No argument here. There is enough evidence of that with the low level claimers going 5.5 and the lower level milers being on terms with Westfest. That said, I think Beyer exaggerated the variant so as to flatter the G1. You have different numbers?

I think Lord Nelson ran huge. He did all the dirty work and never quit.

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think Lord Nelson ran huge. He did all the dirty work and never quit.

No argument. He ran big. Check out Shh She's Ours race. A very very nice filly chased her the whole way.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

My variant has it faster Sunday. No argument here. There is enough evidence of that with the low level claimers going 5.5 and the lower level milers being on terms with Westfest. That said, I think Beyer exaggerated the variant so as to flatter the G1. You have different numbers?

I didn't criticize the numbers. Why don't you give me all your dirt numbers for the two days so that I can see where the problem is.

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I didn't criticize the numbers. Why don't you give me all your dirt numbers for the two days so that I can see where the problem is.

Put me on the payroll and I'll give you all my numbers

Put simply, on raw numbers, the filly ran >10 points faster than Lord Nelson. Lets say the variant is (-5) for Sunday off of Saturday. Still looks to be 5 points low.

Hey, I'm not an expert and maybe I am clouded by knowing just how talented Sensitively is. Just think there was a little bit of an overadjustment on that day by Beyer.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

Put me on the payroll and I'll give you all my numbers

Put simply, on raw numbers, the filly ran >10 points faster than Lord Nelson. Lets say the variant is (-5) for Sunday off of Saturday. Still looks to be 5 points low.

Hey, I'm not an expert and maybe I am clouded by knowing just how talented Sensitively is. Just think there was a little bit of an overadjustment on that day by Beyer.

I think your overrating Sensitively. She's clearly not as good without the lead. One way speed horse.

[RHT2004]

Very familiar with the race BTW. Bet Baffert thinking the 1-2 finishers would duel.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

How does Lord Nelson get a 99 and Shh-She's Ours gets a 100 (according to Brad Free) the next day stopping the clock at 1:07.75? Does anyone else agree with this? Way too much unnecessary subjectivity in my opinion. Aren't Beyer speed figures supposed to remove subjectivity? I simply don't believe the track changed that that much in than 24 hrs.

These figures were very cut and dry. The variant on Saturday was a -32 and that's what gave Lord Nelson a 99 (his raw figure was a 131). The variant on Sunday, when the track was lightning fast was -39. That gave Shh She's Ours a 100. Her raw time was obviously a 139.

There was no appreciable slowdown or speed up of the track on either day. The Gold Cup, despite having a soft pace and a weak field, was a very fast race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These figures were very cut and dry. The variant on Saturday was a -32 and that's what gave Lord Nelson a 99 (his raw figure was a 131). The variant on Sunday, when the track was lightning fast was -39. That gave Shh She's Ours a 100. Her raw time was obviously a 139.

There was no appreciable slowdown or speed up of the track on either day. The Gold Cup, despite having a soft pace and a weak field, was a very fast race.

So, shockingly, another person criticizing the Beyer figs did it out of ignorance.

I sure didn't see that one coming.

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So, shockingly, another person criticizing the Beyer figs did it out of ignorance.

I sure didn't see that one coming.

I didn't criticize the Beyer Figures. I just said that it seemed like maybe it was adjusted a little too much from Saturday to Sunday, noting that I am not an expert and that, after looking at the 5.5 claimers and the mile races over the two days closer, I may have been wrong and noting that I was predisposed to being impressed by a horse running Sensitively off her feet at 107 and 3.

I don't work for Beyer nor have I been crunching figs for years and years like you have. It was a discussion. Why do you have to call me ignorant?

Thanks Nick for the info btw.