3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Kasept]

2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

Runner (Pool 1 Odds) (Pool 2 Odds) (Pool 3 Odds) Pool 4 ML Odds

1 American Pharoah (12-1) (10-1) (8-1) 9-2
2 Ami's Flatter (-) (-) (-) 50-1
3 Bold Conquest (-) (-) (-) 50-1
4 Bolo (-) (-) (34-1) 20-1
5 Carpe Diem (15-1) (12-1) (10-1) 6-1
6 Daredevil (48-1) (40-1) (43-1) 30-1

7 Dortmund (9-1) (10-1) (9-1) 5-1
8 Dubai Sky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
9 El Kabeir (74-1) (39-1) (47-1) 20-1
10 Far From OVer (-) (-) (13-1) 15-1
11 Far Right (-) (48-1) (31-1) 30-1
12 Firing Line (-) (35-1) (29-1) 12-1

13 Frosted (38-1) (31-1) (-) 30-1
14 International Star (-) (44-1) (22-1) 20-1
15 Itsaknockout (-) (30-1) (30-1) 30-1
16 Keen Ice (-) (-) (27-1) 50-1
17 Madefromlucky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
18 Materiality (-) (-) (-) 20-1

19 Mr. Z (47-1) (44-1) (44-1) 50-1
20 Mubtaahij (-) (-) (-) 30-1
21 Prospect Park (-) (35-1) (26-1) 15-1
22 Upstart (53-1) (12-1) (15-1) 15-1
23 War Story (-) (-) (30-1) 60-1
24 Mutuel Field-All Others (3-5) (5-2) (4-1) 8-1

[Rudeboyelvis]

30-1 on Far Right, if we can get it, is certainly worth a look

[Smarty Cide]

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

[cakes44]

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

I suppose that were daredevil to win the wood, 30/1 would be value.

But yeah, what's the point

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

Whether either of those statements is true will depend on the closing odds of the Future Wager, not the ML.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

If you pick and bet on the eventual winner of the Derby you will make money (80-1).

[cakes44]

Are you talking about a particular horse that is 80-1 right now? If not, then yes you will definitely make money if you pick and bet the horse that wins the KD. Pretty sure the goal is to have a horse run in, then win the KD at the best odds possible.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is zero value anywhere.

The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Yes I was overstating a bit. However, your analogy is somewhat off. At least all of the horses in the races at GP and SA are actually running in the races you mentioned.

[saratogadew]

Mr. Z for a hundred please.

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

Mr Z will be 15-1 on Derby day.

[tanner12oz]

Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z

[cakes44]

Time for a break for Mr Z. Unlikely he gets it unless he's injured though.

[Kasept]

POOL 4 Current Odds:

1. American Pharoah 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter 70-1
3. Bold Conquest 77-1
4. Bolo 36-1
5. Carpe Diem 10-1
6. Daredevil 55-1

7. Dortmund 7-1
8. Dubai Sky 22-1
9. El Kabeir 28-1
10. Far From Over 13-1
11. Far Right 41-1
12. Firing Line 13-1

13. Frosted 40-1
14. International Star 20-1
15. Itsaknockout 37-1
16. Keen Ice 68-1
17. Madefromlucky 91-1
18. Materiality 13-1

19. Mr. Z 51-1
20. Mubtaahij 8-1
21. Prospect Park 18-1
22. Upstart 15-1
23. War Story 49-1
24. Field (all others) 11-1

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

POOL 4 Current Odds:

1. American Pharoah 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter 70-1
3. Bold Conquest 77-1
4. Bolo 36-1
5. Carpe Diem 10-1
6. Daredevil 55-1

7. Dortmund 7-1
8. Dubai Sky 22-1
9. El Kabeir 28-1
10. Far From Over 13-1
11. Far Right 41-1
12. Firing Line 13-1

13. Frosted 40-1
14. International Star 20-1
15. Itsaknockout 37-1
16. Keen Ice 68-1
17. Madefromlucky 91-1
18. Materiality 13-1

19. Mr. Z 51-1
20. Mubtaahij 8-1
21. Prospect Park 18-1
22. Upstart 15-1
23. War Story 49-1
24. Field (all others) 11-1

Upstart off a DQ and yesterdays trouble offers value at 15-1 in my opinion.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Upstart off a DQ and yesterdays trouble offers value at 15-1 in my opinion.

Just talking to Andy and he made very logical point that Upstart almost certainly will be between 15-1/20-1 (or more) given the highly prominent love interests (Bafferts'/Pletchers') that will take tons of money..

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just talking to Andy and he made very logical point that Upstart almost certainly will be between 15-1/20-1 (or more) given the highly prominent love interests (Bafferts'/Pletchers') that will take tons of money..

Thanks Steve. Is that 15-20/1 Derby Day or the end of today?