Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-02-2022, 02:48 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,277
Arrow 5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day







__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-04-2022 at 04:59 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-02-2022, 06:32 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,277
Default





__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-04-2022 at 05:01 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-02-2022, 06:32 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,277
Default



__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-04-2022 at 05:01 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-03-2022, 02:31 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Just say Mo
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-03-2022, 02:19 PM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Epicenter should be the deserving favorite on Saturday. They gave cool videos on the YouTube that let you watch every race that all the oaks and derby contenders have ever run in order. Other than the changing silks on some hosses which is annoying, you can see them progressing from start to start.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-03-2022, 11:32 PM
LITF LITF is offline
Cahokia Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 152
Default

What are people doing with Jack Christopher and Jackie's Warrior?

On paper, they look like logical singles. If Jack Christopher runs back to his 2 year old form he wins this pretty easy, I gotta think. Not a ton of speed in here either. But still...I want to play against him.

Same with Jackie's Warrior. He looks like he'll get (for him) an easy lead. But his prep for this wasn't great and it makes me think he might be vulnerable late. I don't want Aloha West or Prevalence. That leaves Cezanne, I guess.

Is trying to beat these two a good idea or should I just take the free squares and look for value elsewhere?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-04-2022, 12:27 AM
jwkniska's Avatar
jwkniska jwkniska is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Mt. Prospect, IL (AP)
Posts: 1,577
Default

I want to see what the weather is and the track condition. Not sure JC will like an off track.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-07-2022, 01:40 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,611
Default

1-Taiba

2-Charge It

3-Epicenter

4-Zandon

5-Mo Donegal

6-Smile Happy

7-White Albarrio

8-Cyberknife

9-Messier
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-07-2022, 01:52 PM
casp0555's Avatar
casp0555 casp0555 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Humble,Texas
Posts: 18,884
Default

Cox/Baffert...I mean Cox/Yakteen exacta box, its like deja vu all over again
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-07-2022, 06:16 PM
Left Bank's Avatar
Left Bank Left Bank is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Southern Canada
Posts: 1,566
Default

I'm all about Taiba and Mike Smith
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 05-07-2022, 07:06 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,292
Default

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Sonny Leon just won the Derby

Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-07-2022, 07:09 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,611
Default

Love it.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-07-2022, 09:28 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,289
Default

Nobody wants to hear a sorry ass horse player bitch & moan over a tough beat, so I'll just say that I almost won a lot of money.

That Is All
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-07-2022, 10:12 PM
LITF LITF is offline
Cahokia Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 152
Default

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-07-2022, 11:12 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,611
Default

I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05-07-2022, 11:25 PM
LITF LITF is offline
Cahokia Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 152
Default

Isn't that the problem? We'll see how he runs back but come on. I heard Randy Moss say that this is what happens when you have a pace like we had today but we had some of the best closers in recent Derby memory not close like he closed. He out closed Mo Donegal? Really? I haven't watched the replay yet but that seems far fetched unless Mo got stopped somewhere along the way. This was just one of those moments that makes you question (with all of your being) why you've chosen this to be your hobby.

And if I have to hear about that ride one more freaking time...that ride should not have mattered. That ride should have gotten him 10th, which would've been an outstanding run from him.

I hope they test this horse like he was a Baffert winning his 100th Derby. At least they would make sense. Otherwise...
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 05-07-2022, 11:33 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LITF View Post
Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...
The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 05-08-2022, 02:03 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.
As someone who bet Mo Donegal, I keep wondering - would Mo Donegal have won if Sonny Leon was riding him instead of Irad? At one point in time, those two horses were basically at the same spot on the track. They took different approaches/routes and we see what happened. Not sure Irad really gave him a shot to win.

I’m still in shock from that race.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 05-08-2022, 06:01 AM
OldDog's Avatar
OldDog OldDog is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: rancho por el mar
Posts: 3,163
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.
Agree. The two horses that I thought had the best chances at winning would have been 1-2 but for a freaky run from Rich Strike, a run that I will be shocked if he ever repeats it.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 05-08-2022, 06:13 AM
jms62's Avatar
jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,762
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.
I've been thinking all night that if Zandon couldn't win with that setup he never could beat this bunch. After reading your post I concede that it was because he was closer to the pace that cost him. Mid stretch it looked like he was going to put Epicenter away and just flattened.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.