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#1
12-11-2009, 08:22 AM
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12/11: Aqueduct (6th-9th)
Sloppy play and/or poor decision-making cost a very nice overlaid P4 at Hollywood yesterday of nearly $560. Leaving $28.00 Next of Kendra off to start the ticket was the culprit, unless you designate not singling 2-5 Tenacious Tina in the 7th as the costliest miscue. Either way, this was a sequence that had a broad target on it and I missed.
Looking back at the races after the card concluded was hard to take, as the P6 paid $38,600. On the day, I came up with 3 Most Likely on top winners, a 2nd choice Best Value and the 2 slightly harder to find winners (5th/8th) as Super Adds. While it's silly to say the P6 could have been hit, it's stunning that the sextet paid that well on a group of races that didn't offer full fields or very confusing scenarios. I almost never play a P6 without a carryover, but seeing what happened yesterday would give pause to think about what situations make it attractive without a bonus pot. Hope you did OK. AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Very tricky low level claiming event with mish mosh of out of form types and general misfits.. Most Likely: #6 Yes It's the Truth 3-1 3rd Next Best: #5 West Coast Flier 6-1 WON Best Value: #2 Laudable 10-1 7th Super Add: #3 French Transition 20-1 9th 7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Positive Prospect 9-5 WON Next Best: #8 Chippewa Court 6-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Let's Fly Away 15-1 6th Super Add: #10 Unicorn Girl 8-1 9th 8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 J L Bernstein 4-1 WON Best Value: #7 Goodbyeandgoodluck 10-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Vinnie Van Go 5-1 2nd Super Add: #8 Longing for Malibu 10-1 6th 9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (Super) Best Value: #2 Dougout Deputy 5-1 2nd Most Likely: #7 Centrina 4-1 Next Best: #3 Catchapenny K. 7-2 3rd Super Add: #10 Every Little Thing 5-2 WON <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2-5-6 7: 1-8 8: 2-3-7 9: 2-3-7-10 3x2x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (5-1-2-10) Paid $135.05 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 12-11-2009 at 04:20 PM. 
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#2
12-11-2009, 11:16 AM
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AQU SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp 6TH: 4 Pay in Kind Early 8TH: 1 (poe) Jimmy Vegas Early 9TH: 1A Windy Jo Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
12-11-2009, 11:24 AM
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Surprised they're running as frigid as it is here today. I've always said I don't think jockeys should be allowed to use whips when it's this cold. Seems inhumane.
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#4
12-11-2009, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
12-11-2009, 12:02 PM
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Quote:
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#6
12-11-2009, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Does the stretch to the line have the horses traveling east or with the wind? Recently I heard Andy make mention of some sort of index that evaluates track bias and on one particular card Auqueduct had the strongest closer bias ever at 160?? for whatever that means. Do you know anything about this stuff Steve? I'll hang up now and listen to your answer....lol.
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#7
12-11-2009, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Quote:
__________________
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those that matter don't mind, and those that mind, dont matter." Theodore Seuss Geisel "Dr. Seuss"
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#8
12-11-2009, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
http://maps.google.com/maps?sourceid...N&hl=en&tab=wl Winds out of the SW are going to be at the back of the horses as they go down the backstretch. NT
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#9
12-11-2009, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
12-11-2009, 07:03 PM
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j and g,
THX! Was an OK day considering the low mutuels... Glad it went well! Good card at the Big A tomorrow!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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