10/23-25: C/O-palooza ~ KEE $301k P5; AQU $124k P6; SA $153k P6

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$301k P5 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to sequence with class droppers and in-and-outers..

Most Likely: #5 Strava 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #7 Huge Bigly 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Underdressed 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 C F V Bullet 8-1 10th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Quartet of candidates (2-4-6-10) have established form that win this and another five (3-7-8-9-12) are within hailing distance. #5 Pretty Pertinent WON ($54.98) is a 20-1 first time turf filly out of the nice multiple G1 placed Pretty Prolific, but there doesn't seem to be any indication that the lawn will work for her..

Most Likely: #10 Birdwatching 6-5 11th
Next Best: #6 One Front War 6-1 9th
Best Value: #2 High Shot 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 My Brazilian Girl 4-1 3rd


6th: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Everland 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Landed 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Intricate 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Neon Icon 5-1 WON ($11.96)


7th: ALW/Cond., 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Stakes quality turf sprint where Ward (Arrest Me Red) and former Ward (Outadore) figure prominently, but note that Arrest hasn't been too successful over this course..

Best Value: #6 Mischievous Rogue 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Outadore 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Arrest Me Red 7-2 WON ($7.56)
Super Add: #10 Mo Stash 4-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Hitchcock SCR
Next Best: #4 Touchy 8-5 WON ($3.26)
Exotics Use: #9 Can Do Andrew 15-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Original Sin 7-2 -


$200 Budget P5 Grid (w/ All Used in 4th):

4: 5-7-9-10 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-5-8 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8/SCR-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x4x3 = 288 x .50 = $144
All A's: 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
Backup (CAAAA): 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48 (1-4-5-8 in 4th)


$100 & Under Budget P5 Grid:

4: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-3-10 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8/SCR-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (CAAAA): 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-3-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

5: 6-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$124k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #2 Silent Melody 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Sweet Anniversary 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Nolita 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1a (POE) Chasing Daylight 3-1 3rd


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Miss Bourbon 7-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Magic Eight Ball 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Just Heart 9-2 8th
Super Add: #3 Turriga 6-1 WON ($6.40)


5th: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Its Satisfactual 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Stamp of Approval 9-5 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Sunday Tiff 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Positive Carry 5-2 3rd


P4 Grid:

2: 3-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


6th: MDN/OC-$, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Western Wolf 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Skyloft 6-1 11th
Next Best: #7 Chris's Revenge 5-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #2 America's Honor 3-1 2nd


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Classify 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 El Grande O 8-5 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #1 Forrest City 7-2 5th
Super Add: #8 For Some Reason 6-1 6th


8th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f-Outer

Always hard to be totally objective when you have a horse in a race, but our home bred Landauer ran a career best stretching out on the grass last month and found trouble mid-stretch when rallying. Gets Lezcano and added ground and starts out as the 5th choice (6-1)..

Most Likely: #5 Landauer 6-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Rohan 15-1 WON ($24.20)
Next Best: #7 Make Your Moment 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cattani 3-1 6th


P6 Grid:

3: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x2x1x2x2 = $72


P5 Grid:

4: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = $32 ($16 for .50)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

Still was going to miss the P5 (with Neon Icon rated too low), but wanted to involve Pretty Pertinent (who was as fast as the major players) and couldn't find any turf on her page to convince me.. Eh.

[Kasept]

SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$153k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 A Toast to Lanie 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Uffda 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #4 Chase'n Kota 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Shop Till You Drop 9-2 5th


5th: CA-MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Lord Dunmore 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 No Poking Around 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 It's a Cinch 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #8 Three Georges 20-1 3rd


6th: MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Just Deal 6-5 2nd-DQ'd from WIN
Next Best: #4 Cardinal Spirit 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($7.60)
Best Value: #2 Sir Nano 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Glorious Oscar 5-1 7th


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Chasingserendipity 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bottle Rocket 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Ima Joker 4-1 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #8 Kelly's Out 2-1 6th


8th: CA-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

VERY tough group to decipher..

Most Likely: #8 Mirinda 6-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Lady Maryann 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Safa 7-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Naida 3-1 7th


9th: MCLM/$50k, F&M/3yo-5yo, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Rich of Joy 12-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Certitude 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Dangerous Affair 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Jai Ho 8-1 WON ($16.60)


P6 Grid:

4: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
6: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
9: 2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x2x2x4x2 = 64 x $2 = $128
All A's: 1x1x2x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


P6 P5 Grid:

5: 6 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

6: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]