Win streak attempt

[Calzone Lord]

I had argued that I think picking 10 straight winners would be harder than 1,000 straight losers. People disagreed with me -- but I know there are horses everyday who I believe have a 0.00% chance of winning.

There's no such thing as a horse with a 100% chance of winning... outside of Sharp Cat in her walkover maybe. The fact that a lot of stuff can go wrong during a race is only a very small part -- it mostly boils down to the fact that race horses are very fragile animals and rarely stay in peak form for an extended number of starts.

Very few horses at all levels ever go 10 straight races without turning in "Non-efforts" -- horses with a lot of early speed and poor trainers are most likely to turn in dismal races. Horses with excellent trainers who stay off of the early pace are most likely to produce consistent results.

Long win streaks are basically about staying free of injury, in good health, and simply being better than your competition you face.

Anyway, GPK was asking about it in the other thread -- and I'd told him I'd try to see how many winners in a row I could get.

I will take one horse a day who I believe is the most likely winner of the entire day -- and see if I get to 10 winners in a row.

These will not be 'good betting situations' -- a good betting situation is when you believe your chances of winning comfortably exceed the odds you're getting when the betting closes.

Most of these horses will be pounded to a short price because of their obvious dominance. Still, it will be a good test to see how often the days most invincible looking horse fails to win.

[Calzone Lord]

Biggest standout of the day for Thursday:

Hoosier Race #2: Julie Darlin

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I had argued that I think picking 10 straight winners would be harder than 1,000 straight losers. People disagreed with me -- but I know there are horses everyday who I believe have a 0.00% chance of winning.

There's no such thing as a horse with a 100% chance of winning... outside of Sharp Cat in her walkover maybe. The fact that a lot of stuff can go wrong during a race is only a very small part -- it mostly boils down to the fact that race horses are very fragile animals and rarely stay in peak form for an extended number of starts.

Very few horses at all levels ever go 10 straight races without turning in "Non-efforts" -- horses with a lot of early speed and poor trainers are most likely to turn in dismal races. Horses with excellent trainers who stay off of the early pace are most likely to produce consistent results.

Long win streaks are basically about staying free of injury, in good health, and simply being better than your competition you face.

Anyway, GPK was asking about it in the other thread -- and I'd told him I'd try to see how many winners in a row I could get.

I will take one horse a day who I believe is the most likely winner of the entire day -- and see if I get to 10 winners in a row.

These will not be 'good betting situations' -- a good betting situation is when you believe your chances of winning comfortably exceed the odds you're getting when the betting closes.

Most of these horses will be pounded to a short price because of their obvious dominance. Still, it will be a good test to see how often the days most invincible looking horse fails to win.

Anyone who thinks picking 10 straight winners is easier than 1000 straight losers needs their head examined.

Though I suppose one could cherry pick over a long period of time, but under the constraint of having to pick one a day? Yikes.

[zippyneedsawin]

What about the mighty Archwarrior? Not willing to take a chance on a supposed sure thing 2yo?

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

What about the mighty Archwarrior? Not willing to take a chance on a supposed sure thing 2yo?

Nevermind, just saw your other thread.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Biggest standout of the day for Thursday:

Hoosier Race #2: Julie Darlin

Won by 13.5 lengths and paid $2.80

1 down, 9 more to go.


Biggest standout of the day for Friday:

Thistle Downs Race #6: Coupled entry of Blazing Bling (#1) and Disappeared (#1A)

[Calzone Lord]

Blazing Bling won by 9.75 lengths at monstrous odds of 1/9.

2 down, 8 more to go.


Staying in the Buckeye state, Princess Christine has lost 15 straight races (9 at Beulah Park, 5 at River Downs, and one at that legendary racing oval Mt. Pleasant)

But, Princess Christine has finally "found her friends" in tomorrows 1st race at River Downs and she should help trigger a microscopic daily double.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Blazing Bling won by 9.75 lengths at monstrous odds of 1/9.

2 down, 8 more to go.


Staying in the Buckeye state, Princess Christine has lost 15 straight races (9 at Beulah Park, 5 at River Downs, and one at that legendary racing oval Mt. Pleasant)

But, Princess Christine has finally "found her friends" in tomorrows 1st race at River Downs and she should help trigger a microscopic daily double.

Opened at 1/9. I must say this is fun to watch.

Paul

[pweizer]

Wins by 6 in hand despite being pressed every step of the way.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

But, Princess Christine has finally "found her friends" in tomorrows 1st race at River Downs and she should help trigger a microscopic daily double.

According to the result chart -- Princess Christine actually won by 9.5 lengths.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=1


I was a little bummed out that she went off at 1/5 odds -- she was 5/2 on the morning line.

I was debating between either using her -- or using the 6/5 morning line favorite in the next race ... but I choose Princess Christine because I thought the 15 race losing streak would translate to better odds. It felt like she might be even money and the winner of the 2nd race might be 1/5.

The favorite won the 2nd race by 14 lengths and paid Even money. The Daily Double paid $5.40.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=2


Ah well. 3 down, 7 more to go.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

According to the result chart -- Princess Christine actually won by 9.5 lengths.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=1


I was a little bummed out that she went off at 1/5 odds -- she was 5/2 on the morning line.

I was debating between either using her -- or using the 6/5 morning line favorite in the next race ... but I choose Princess Christine because I thought the 15 race losing streak would translate to better odds. It felt like she might be even money and the winner of the 2nd race might be 1/5.

The favorite won the 2nd race by 14 lengths and paid Even money. The Daily Double paid $5.40.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=2


Ah well. 3 down, 7 more to go.

Yea, but dat .10 supa in the first paid five fiddy.

[Calzone Lord]

Standout of the day for Sunday:

Monmouth Park Race #7: Teen Pauline is drawn perfectly and her patient to a fault jockey should sit a very good trip and she buries them with a repeat of her last race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Standout of the day for Sunday:

Monmouth Park Race #7: Teen Pauline is drawn perfectly and her patient to a fault jockey should sit a very good trip and she buries them with a repeat of her last race.

She opted for the Spinaway.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

She opted for the Spinaway.

Looks like she opted for the wrong race...

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Looks like she opted for the wrong race...

Paul

Indeed -- the Beyer for the Sorority (6f) was just a 63 and Teen Pauline would have almost certainly sat a perfect stalking trip at 6f...and buried that field.

Instead she dueled going 7f at Saratoga and faltered late in a MUCH tougher (but obviously MUCH more prestigious) spot.

There are a laundry list of horses who appear certain winners today -- pretty close to split anyone of about a dozen who look certain.

Lets go out to Emerald Downs in the Pacific Northwest -- in race #1 Polish Dollar is stretching out for the first time in a long time -- he owns a significant pace advantage and I don't believe the distance will be any problem.

Standout of the day:

EMD race #1: Polish Dollar

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Standout of the day:

EMD race #1: Polish Dollar

$2.60

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

$2.60

Had a tease moment as the horse was 3/5 when the gates opened.

4 down, 6 more to go.

[Calzone Lord]

Not a whole lot of action to choose from on Tuesday.

Standout of the day for Tuesday:

Hoosier Race #2: Crimson's Roar

There are some things that should turn bettors off with this one: He's been laid up for over a month and a half with no workouts, barn change to a guy who hasn't won off the claim, and just a 5% jockey in 2012 (17 wins from 325 mounts)

However, the absence from racing is because he's been waiting for Ellis Park to end. The absence of any workouts the last seven weeks doesn't bother me, and the human connections don't bother me.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Had a tease moment as the horse was 3/5 when the gates opened.

4 down, 6 more to go.

Drugs I had him at 4-5 on Betfair thanks a million some lucky lads actually backed him at 6-4 in early trading. Unfortunately, Betfair doesn't take Hoosier Park

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Drugs I had him at 4-5 on Betfair thanks a million some lucky lads actually backed him at 6-4 in early trading. Unfortunately, Betfair doesn't take Hoosier Park

Nice job getting that value on Betfair.

I don't think anyone has ever thanked me for a $2.60 winner before.