Weekend Stakes Beyers: Taiba 101, Zandon 98, Mo Donegal 96

[Kasept]

KEE Blue Grass S (G1): Zandon 98 (Upstart) C. Brown/F. Prat
KEE Madison S (G1): Just One Time 95 (Not This Time) B. Cox/F. Prat
KEE Shakertown S (G2): Golden Pal 109 (Uncle Mo) W. Ward/I. Ortiz
KEE Appalachian S. (G2): Spendarella 89 (Karakontie-JPN) H. Motion/T. Gaffalione
KEE Commonwealth S (G3): Prevalence 98 (Medaglia d'Oro) B. Walsh/T. Gaffalione
KEE Ashland S (G1): Nest 92 (Curlin) T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz
KEE Transylvania S (G3): Sy Dog 81 (Slumber-GB) H. Motion/I. Ortiz
KEE Lafayette S: Old Homestead 94 (Overanalyze) B. Brinkman/T. Pompell
KEE Beaumont S. (G3): Matareya 96 (Pioneerof the Nile) B. Cox/F. Prat
KEE Palisades S: Slipstream 90 (More Than Ready) C. Clement/J. Rosario

AQU Wood Memorial S. (G2): Mo Donegal 96 (Uncle Mo) T. Pletcher/J. Rosario
AQU Carter H (G1): Speaker's Corner 114 (Street Sense) W. Mott/J. Alvarado
AQU Gazelle S (G3): Nostalgic 86 (Medaglia d'Oro) W. Mott/J. Ortiz
AQU Bay Shore S (G3): Wit 90 (Practical Joke) T. Pletcher/J. Ortiz
AQU Distaff H (G3): Glass Ceiling 98 (Constitution) C. Baker/D. Davis
AQU Danger's Hour S: City Man 99 (Mucho Macho Man) C. Clement/J. Rosario
AQU Top Flight Invitational S: Exotic West 89 (Hard Spun) G. Sciacca/J. Castellano

SA Santa Anita Derby (G1): Taiba 101 (Gun Runner) T. Yakteen/M. Smith
SA Santa Anita Oaks (G2): Desert Dawn 88 (Cupid) P. D'Amato/U. Rispoli
SA Monrovia S (G2): Brooke Marie 88 (Lemon Drop Kid) E. Kenneally/J. Hernandez
SA Royal Heroine S (G2): Going Global-IRE 87 (Mehmas-IRE) P. D'Amato/U. Rispoli
SA Evening Jewel S: Power Surge 82 (Straight Fire) B. Wright/R. Gonzalez
SA Echo Eddie S: Smuggler's Run 76 (Straight Fire) R. Baltas/J. Bravo
SA Providencia S. (G3): Cairo Memories 90 (Cairo Prince) R. Hess/M. Smith
SA John Shear Mile S: Royal Ship-BRZ 103 (Midshipman) R. Mandella/M. Smith
SA Siren Lure S: Bran-FR 91 (Muhaarar-GB) J. Sadler/U. Rispoli

OP Rainbow S: Whelen Springs 83 (Street Sense) J. Ortiz/G. Saez
OP Rainbow Miss S: Punchy Girl 57 (Street Strategy) J. Barkley/E. Gonzalez

MVR Howard B. Noonan S: Country Club Bobby - (Shanghai Bobby) J. Radosevich/S. Leon

[cakes44]

To quote the great Turo Escalante about Taiba:

“That’s one running motherf$&er.”

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cakes44

To quote the great Turo Escalante about Taiba:

“That’s one running motherf$&er.”

Some people are against stepping outside of the box and doing the untraditional. Going from a 6f maiden win to a 9f grade one skipped all of the usual progressions. I loved it. Did not expect or predict a win but I’m thrilled by it.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Some people are against stepping outside of the box and doing the untraditional. Going from a 6f maiden win to a 9f grade one skipped all of the usual progressions. I loved it. Did not expect or predict a win but I’m thrilled by it.

LOL

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Some people are against stepping outside of the box and doing the untraditional. Going from a 6f maiden win to a 9f grade one skipped all of the usual progressions. I loved it. Did not expect or predict a win but I’m thrilled by it.

Let's be real. The only "stepping up" the horse did was running an addition 3 furlongs from his maiden trip. He already had the highest Beyer in the field and both Messier and Forbidden Kingdom were hardly battle tested themselves, what with both coming out of 5-horse single file team workouts in the SA Derby preps. Toss in the fact that the 2 favorites both missed training time recently.

Lo and behold, the Santa Anita Derby itself was conducted in a 5-horse single file team workout.

Any of those horses will be in for a rude awakening once they are caught between horses, boxed in, pummeled by kick back, or in tight quarters with a fast pace and additional furlongs to negotiate.

Horse clearly has talent, but I won't be thrilled when Taiba is toast before September.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Let's be real. The only "stepping up" the horse did was running an addition 3 furlongs from his maiden trip. He already had the highest Beyer in the field and both Messier and Forbidden Kingdom were hardly battle tested themselves, what with both coming out of 5-horse single file team workouts in the SA Derby preps. Toss in the fact that the 2 favorites both missed training time recently.

Lo and behold, the Santa Anita Derby itself was conducted in a 5-horse single file team workout.

Any of those horses will be in for a rude awakening once they are caught between horses, boxed in, pummeled by kick back, or in tight quarters with a fast pace and additional furlongs to negotiate.

Horse clearly has talent, but I won't be thrilled when Taiba is toast before September.

All of this is true. Well, up until the last sentence. We don't know how that's going to end up. You could be right. You could be wrong. None of that changes the fact that everyone associated with the horse thought it was the wrong move. The owner wanted to try it anyway and was rewarded for taking a shot that almost nobody else would have taken. September is a long way away. The horse could have skipped this race and gone through his normal conditions and still been toast by September. So when you see two vulnerable favorites as you did here, in a big race with a big purse and there is every indication that you might be better than than anyway, you take it. Again, I'm glad he did. I hate traditional paths.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Let's be real. The only "stepping up" the horse did was running an addition 3 furlongs from his maiden trip. He already had the highest Beyer in the field and both Messier and Forbidden Kingdom were hardly battle tested themselves, what with both coming out of 5-horse single file team workouts in the SA Derby preps. Toss in the fact that the 2 favorites both missed training time recently.

Lo and behold, the Santa Anita Derby itself was conducted in a 5-horse single file team workout.

Any of those horses will be in for a rude awakening once they are caught between horses, boxed in, pummeled by kick back, or in tight quarters with a fast pace and additional furlongs to negotiate.

Horse clearly has talent, but I won't be thrilled when Taiba is toast before September.

September??? Oh, he'll be toast long before that! Owners calling the shots has a long history of being successful in this game as you well know.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

September??? Oh, he'll be toast long before that! Owners calling the shots has a long history of being successful in this game as you well know.

I was counting a few weeks of stalling with "we're hoping to make such and such race if everything goes right" before the ole' finisher "he has this issue and if it was a normal horse he could come back next year but since he's already missing the BC, well..."

Curiously, Taiba is actually nominated to the Lexington Stakes next week...under Rodolphe Brisset's name. Maybe they really are taking an untraditional path.

Perhaps Ken McPeek can lease him for the St. James' Palace.

[King Glorious]

I also don’t know that it’s really going far out on a limb to suggest that a 3yo who didn’t run as a 2yo and didn’t debut until 3/5….could have issues that cause a premature retirement. Maybe the thinking that tomorrow may not come leads to getting what you can today.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

September??? Oh, he'll be toast long before that! Owners calling the shots has a long history of being successful in this game as you well know.

While I get what you’re saying, I remember in past conversations when I would suggest a spot that I thought a horse should run in and called out an owner for taking a path I wasn’t in favor of, you chastised and belittled me, saying an owner pays the bills and should have the right to call the shots. While here, you’re not challenging his right to do so, you’re clearly stating that it’s a bad idea to do it. Can you see how someone could be conflicted as to your position?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I also don’t know that it’s really going far out on a limb to suggest that a 3yo who didn’t run as a 2yo and didn’t debut until 3/5….could have issues that cause a premature retirement. Maybe the thinking that tomorrow may not come leads to getting what you can today.

Well, I wasn't trying to go out on a limb; I actually had a litany of names to throw out there to prove the likelihood of the prediction (Charlatan, Justify, Paynter, Bodemeister, Cezanne, Uncle Chuck, etc.)

The question becomes: Why does Taiba have issues? Is it inherent weakness or bad training or a combination thereof?

Taiba was training forwardly between April and June of last year until he was not.

Instead of being thrilled by his likely "flash-in-the-pan" career, the reality is most likely that we missed out on seeing this colt in perhaps a very successful traditional West Coast 2yo campaign (Best Pal, DM Futurity, Norfolk, etc).

Mulitply that by however many other "prospects" also fell by the wayside (and will or will not ever make it back) and we get what we got: Perhaps the worst BC Juvenile of all time.

And now perhaps one of the worst Kentucky Derbies of all time.

Unless Tiz the Bomb wins it and goes on to Epsom Derby glory.

[Dahoss]

“Chastised and belittled”

Wowzers

[freddymo]

Aqueduct was great yesterday ok they didn't have 30000 people like perhaps they would have in the 70s that said people were having a good time and the world looked pre covid for the afternoon.

Did the track slow down from the Distaff to the Carter?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Aqueduct was great yesterday ok they didn't have 30000 people like perhaps they would have in the 70s that said people were having a good time and the world looked pre covid for the afternoon.

Did the track slow down from the Distaff to the Carter?

Back in the days where the only Legal Gamble was a once a week Lottery.

[Conrad]

How did Speakers Corner (114) get such a big number compared to Glass Ceiling's(98) Distaff performance after running only .37 seconds faster ?
No way the track changed that much - 16pts !?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Conrad

How did Speakers Corner (114) get such a big number compared to Glass Ceiling's(98) Distaff performance after running only .37 seconds faster ?
No way the track changed that much - 16pts !?

Beyer feels it changed over 20 points.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Conrad

How did Speakers Corner (114) get such a big number compared to Glass Ceiling's(98) Distaff performance after running only .37 seconds faster ?
No way the track changed that much - 16pts !?

After the Distaff, I remarked to a very smart guy who watches countless races for a living that seemed like a fast race. You never know but it seemed a reasonable conclusion. I think some fig makers will have the Distaff and Carter closer? You had some very reliable runners in each race to project off, it is hard to suggest that Reinvestment and Mind Control ran worse than their typical races of high 90's low 100's Mind Control was beaten by 7+ lengths

[Kasept]

Beyer visits ATR 9:20 Monday for his annual post-prep recap and to specifically talk about Taiba..

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

After the Distaff, I remarked to a very smart guy who watches countless races for a living that seemed like a fast race. You never know but it seemed a reasonable conclusion. I think some fig makers will have the Distaff and Carter closer? You had some very reliable runners in each race to project off, it is hard to suggest that Reinvestment and Mind Control ran worse than their typical races of high 90's low 100's Mind Control was beaten by 7+ lengths

Mind Control is a 6yo that was coming off a ~7 month layoff yesterday. Search Results was also coming off a long layoff, but was running mid-90 BSF as a 3yo. She got beat 13+ lengths.

Glass Ceiling and Kept Waiting both were on massive tears (consecutive multi-length wins) albeit against lesser.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Mind Control is a 6yo that was coming off a ~7 month layoff yesterday. Search Results was also coming off a long layoff, but was running mid-90 BSF as a 3yo. She got beat 13+ lengths.

Glass Ceiling and Kept Waiting both were on massive tears (consecutive multi-length wins) albeit against lesser.

I get it. It's a good conversation, a friend of ours thinks the figs are MUCH closer. Do I think Glass Ceiling would have been .37 away from Speakers Corner at the end of the Carter? Not really, that said I wouldn't discount anyone who thought it was possible.