Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

OP Arkansas Derby (G1): Overanalyze 88 (Dixie Union) T. Pletcher/R. Bejarano
OP Apple Blossom H (G1): On Fire Baby 101 (Smoke Glacken) G. Hartlage/J. Johnson
OP Oaklawn H (G2): Cyber Secret 108 (Broken Vow) L. Whiting/R. Albarado
OP Count Fleet Sprint H (G3): Justin Phillip 103 (First Samurai) S. Asmussen/R. Santana
OP Northern Spur S: Get Happy Mister 91 (First Samurai) K. Von Hemel/G. Corbett
OP Instant Racing S : Blueeyesintherein 89 (Magna Graduate) G. Simms/J. Court
OP Carousel S: Vuitton 93 (Smart Strike) S. Asmussen/R. Santana
OP Fantasy S (G3): Rose to Gold 88 (Friends Lake) S. Santoro/C. Borel

KEE Toyota Blue Grass S (G1): Java's War 89 (War Pass) K. McPeek/J. Leparoux
KEE Jenny Wiley S (G1): Centre Court 96 (Smart Strike) G. Arnold II/J. Leparoux
KEE Maker's 46 Mile S (G1): Wise Dan 97 (Wiseman's Ferry) C. LoPresti/J. Lezcano
KEE Madison S (G1): Last Full Measure 92 (Empire Maker) P. Oliver/C. Nakatani
KEE Commonwealth S (G3): Handsome Mike 94 (Scat Daddy) D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez
KEE Shakertown S (G3): Havelock 91 (Great Notion) D. Miller/G. Gomez
KEE Beaumont S (G2): Ciao Bella Luna -- (Tribal Rule) J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario

AQU Distaff H (G2): Cluster of Stars 97 (Greeley's Galaxy) S. Asmussen/J. Alvarado
AQU Shot Berry S: Sunny Desert 88 (Wild Desert) J. Parisella/R. Maragh
AQU Dave S: Street Game 91 (Street Cry-IRE) P. Serpe/A. Solis

CRC Calder Oaks: Street Girl 90 (Street Hero) M. Azpurua/E. Zayas

SA Las Cienegas S (G3): Mizdirection 93 (Mizzen Mast) M. Puype/D. Flores
SA Runway S: Jubliant Girl 89 (Henrythenavigator) J. Sadler/M. Pedroza
SA Santa Lucia S: Sister Kate -- (Benchmark) J. Hollendorfer/C. Nakatani

PRX Foxy J. G. S: Villette 80 (Petionville) J. Servis/S. Elliott
PRX Lyman H: Tujoes 92 (Oratory) S. Klesaris/J. Bisono

SUN Sunland Park H: Forest Mouse 89 (Teton Forest) H. Dominguez/R. Eikleberry

[keithting]

Steve:

Any Beyer on Incognito in Aqu 9th yesterday? That was an impressive run...

Maybe see him at Pimlico next?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by keithting

Steve:

Any Beyer on Incognito in Aqu 9th yesterday? That was an impressive run...

Maybe see him at Pimlico next?

Incognito 86

Had been rumored for IL Derby originally with Preakness on their minds before staying home for this..

[Alabama Stakes]

What did you think of the 2 big races yesterday Steve ?

[justindew]

Steve, when you consider the slow start and the fact that Java's War ran 52 feet more than the runner-up, is it reasonable to view that 89 a little more favorably? I ask because I don't really know much about the science/art behind how these figs are made.

JD

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by justindew

Steve, when you consider the slow start and the fact that Java's War ran 52 feet more than the runner-up, is it reasonable to view that 89 a little more favorably? I ask because I don't really know much about the science/art behind how these figs are made.

If you think the start cost Java War 2 lengths and that he ran an extra 7 lengths or so, you could reasonably add 14 pts to the 89 and use 103 when comparing to other horses's trouble-adjusted figs.

--Dunbar

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

OP Count Fleet Sprint H (G3): Justin Phillip 103 (First Samurai) S. Asmussen/R. Santana

Looks like they probably have a variant split after the 3rd race as well.

In Race #3, a second time out 3yo maiden named No Distinction won by 8+ lengths in 1:09.75

Justin Phillip won the Count Fleet in 1:09.63 ... running only 0.12 seconds faster than the With Distinction maiden earlier in the day.

Those were the only two sprints on the card ... everything else was 2-turn. The first two races in the day both came back faster than expected as well, faster than expected in relation to all of the routes from R4 onward I should say.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you think the start cost Java War 2 lengths and that he ran an extra 7 lengths or so, you could reasonably add 14 pts to the 89 and use 103 when comparing to other horses's trouble-adjusted figs.

Another way to look at it is how much EXTRA trouble did Java War experience, beyond what he can expect to experience on his next trip? If he is a chronically slow starter, and you have no reason to think they will fix that before the Derby, then you don't want to adjust his speed fig for that poor start when comparing it to other Derby horses. If he is a devoted come-from-behind-late horse, then you have to assume he will experience as much or more ground-loss when coming from behind in the Derby with 19 horses instead of 13 to deal with. Again, you don't want to adjust the speed fig upward. You might, in fact, be inclined to adjust it downward, on the assumption that passing 19 horses is likely going to be tougher than passing 13. Sure, he might find a route closer to the rail and pass the 19 horses that way, but the gain from that scenario is offset by the excellent chance that he will have the checked/steadied kind of trouble.

Unless you have good reason to think that Java War will have less trouble in the Ky Derby than in the Blue Grass, you're left with the original 89 as the best description of Java War's Blue Grass.

--Dunbar

[skippy3481]

very insightful post dunbar, thank you for posting your thoughts.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by justindew

Steve, when you consider the slow start and the fact that Java's War ran 52 feet more than the runner-up, is it reasonable to view that 89 a little more favorably? I ask because I don't really know much about the science/art behind how these figs are made.

JD

Dewwaditty!

Since the joint went to poly, the Blue Grass has regularly been a slow fig race with I think only General Quarters and Dullahan (98/99) approaching a 'fast' fig. Monba, Stately Victor, Dominican, Brilliant Speed were all in the low 90's. With a lot of Blue Grass exiters (Paddy O'Prado another example), you didn't have quality dirt efforts to fall back on. At least with Java's War you have some authentic dirt form in the Tampa Bay Derby placement (96 in 3yo seasonal debut) to reference as well as the come home time from Saturday.

I think Java's War is pretty good and is absolutely bred to relish added distance. As discussed yesterday on ATR, this Derby group isn't going to produce the typical frantic early pace, so Java's War likely isn't going to be closing into a collapsing scenario, but he'll be running at the end when others have packed it in.