5/6 (CD): Triple Crown Tracker

[Kasept]

6/10 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES

Tapit Trice (Pletcher/Saez)
Forte (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
National Treasure (Baffert)
Angel of Empire (Cox)
Hit Show (Cox)
Tapit Shoes (Cox)
Red Route One (Asmussen)
Arcangelo (Antonucci)
Il Miracolo (Sano)


PREAKNESS PROBABLES/POSSIBLES

National Treasure (Baffert/Velazquez)
Blazing Sevens (C. Brown/I. Ortiz)
Mage (Delgado/Castellano)
Red Route One (Asmussen/Rosario)
Chase the Chaos (Moger/TBA)


5/6 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

8. Mage 50 (Delgado/Castellano)
3. Two Phil’s 123 (Rivelli/Loveberry)
14. Angel of Empire 154 (Cox/Prat)
11. Disarm 46 (Asmussen/Rosario)
1. Hit Show 60 (Cox/Franco)


4/1 (GP): FLORIDA DERBY (100-40-30-20-10)

11. Forte 90 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz) 100
4. Mage 10 (Delgado/Saez) 40
9. Cyclone Mischief 15 (Romans/Castellano) 30
8. Mr Ripple (Joseph/Zayas) 20
10. Fort Bragg 5 (Yakteen/Rosario) 10


4/1 (OP): ARKANSAS DERBY (100-40-30-20-10)

6. Angel Of Empire (Cox/Prat) 100
9. King Russell (Moquett/Bejarano) 40
8. Reincarnate (Yakteen/Velazquez) 30
7. Rocket Can (Mott/Alvarado) 20
5. Airtime (Diodoro/Torres) 10


4/8 (AQU): WOOD MEMORIAL (100-40-30-20-10)

8. Lord Miles (Joseph) 100
13. Hit Show 20 (Cox) 40
1. Dreamlike (Pletcher) 30
7. Arctic Arrogance (Rice) 20
11. Classic Catch (Pletcher) 10


4/8 (KEE): BLUE GRASS (100-40-30-20-10)

1. Tapit Trice 50 (Pletcher) 100
3. Verifying 14 (Cox) 40
8. Blazing Sevens 16 (C. Brown) 30
7. Sun Thunder 34 (McPeek) 20
10. Raise Cain 54 (Colebrook) 10


4/8 (SA): SANTA ANITA DERBY (100-40-30-20-10)

5. Practical Move 60 (Yakteen) 100
8. Mandarin Hero (Fujita) 40
7. Skinner 15 (Shirreffs) 30
6. National Treasure (Yakteen) 20
4. One in Vermillion (Kruljac) 10


4/15 (KEE): LEXINGTON (20-8-6-4-2)

5. First Mission (Luis Saez, Brad Cox) 20
11. Arabian Lion (Irad Ortiz Jr., Bob Baffert) 8
6. Disarm (Ortiz, Asmussen) 6
7. Denington (Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek) 4
3. Demolition Duke (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox) 2

[RolloTomasi]

Any probables for the Lexington? Where's Confidence Game?

Running out of Derby horses here...Red Route One last week, now Skinner not getting in...

Is Pletcher going to bother with putting Major Dude back on dirt? I guess the Crown Royal Turf on the undercard is gonna look pretty attractive especially since he has the Derby surrounded all ready.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Any probables for the Lexington? Where's Confidence Game?

Running out of Derby horses here...Red Route One last week, now Skinner not getting in...

Is Pletcher going to bother with putting Major Dude back on dirt? I guess the Crown Royal Turf on the undercard is gonna look pretty attractive especially since he has the Derby surrounded all ready.

Confidence Game training up to Derby.

Lexington probables shortly..

Skinner has 45 and may be OK..

Guessing Major Dude goes turf..

[Kasept]

5/6 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Forte 190 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
2. Practical Move 160 (Yakteen/Vazquez)
3. Angel of Empire 154 (Cox/Prat)
4. Tapit Trice 150 (Pletcher/Saez)
5. Two Phil’s 123 (Rivelli/Loveberry)
6. Lord Miles 105 (Joseph/P. Lopez)
7. Derma Sotogake-JPN 100 (Otonashi/Lemaire)
8. Kingsbarns 100 (Pletcher/Prat)
9. Raise Cain 64 (Colebrook/Rosario)
10. Rocket Can 60 (Mott/Alvarado)

11. Hit Show 60 (Cox/Franco)
12. Confidence Game 57 (Desormeaux/Graham)
13. Verifying 54 (Cox/Gaffalione)
14. Sun Thunder 54 (McPeek/B. Hernandez-Geroux)
15. +Wild On Ice 50 (Marr/Tohill)
16. Mage 50 (Delgado/Saez)
17. Blazing Sevens 46 (Brown/I. Ortiz)
18. Reincarnate 45 (Yakteen/Velazquez)
19. Jace’s Road 45 (Cox/Geroux)
20. Continuar-JPN (Yahagi/Sakai) JPN Auto-bid
---------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Skinner 45 (John Shirreffs/Espinoza)
22. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/Castellano)
23. Major Dude 40 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
24. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura)
25. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano)
26. Disarm 40 (Asmussen/Rosario)
27. Arctic Arrogance 36 (Rice/Vargas)
28. Red Route One 33 (Asmussen/Gaffalione)
29. Instant Coffee 32 (Cox/Saez)
30. Funtastic Again 30 (Ward/Corrales)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Any probables for the Lexington? Where's Confidence Game?

Probable:

Curly Larry and Mo (Caio Caramori)
First Mission (Brad Cox)
Midnight Rising (Jordan Blair)
Victory Formation (Cox)

Possible:

Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux)

[Dahoss]

Seems fair to at least mention that the horses who left the Baffert barn have really underperformed while in a new barn. That isn’t a slight on Yakteen who has done a great job with Practical Move. But it’s interesting that their new trainer is unable to get that same magic.

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Seems fair to at least mention that the horses who left the Baffert barn have really underperformed while in a new barn. That isn’t a slight on Yakteen who has done a great job with Practical Move. But it’s interesting that their new trainer is unable to get that same magic.

It looks like they just are what they are. Just OK stakes horses.. Meanwhile, Practical Move.

[Kasept]

And also meanwhile, G1 winner Doppelganger..

[Hoblin]

Has there been any word yet as to whether one of the horses from the European series will be entered?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Hoblin

Has there been any word yet as to whether one of the horses from the European series will be entered?

None coming.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

And also meanwhile, G1 winner Doppelganger..

That horse always wanted to run from off the pace but that doesn't suit the Baffert program. The tactics employed in his Hail Mary Arkansas Derby run last year was a special sort of botch job.

CA trainers have been quite adept in the past few years at producing quality late-running sprinters by wasting valuable races & months entertaining false Derby hopes in those Oaklawn preps.

American Theorem & Get Her Number both came out of the ashes of those races in previous years and returned a year or two later refashioned as quality sprinters.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

And also meanwhile, G1 winner Doppelganger..

The 93 winning Beyer in that “grade 1” win is the stuff of legend. Love the Carter but that was a grade 1 race in name only.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It looks like they just are what they are. Just OK stakes horses.. Meanwhile, Practical Move.

Thanks for proving my point.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

American Theorem & Get Her Number both came out of the ashes of those races in previous years and returned a year or two later refashioned as quality sprinters.

That's a great point. Meanwhile, Mark Glatt was wasting no time with Dr. Shivel, Collusion Illusion & Howbeit and won a hatful of graded sprint stakes with them.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Thanks for proving my point.

Not sure what Practical Move proves other than being a better/more complete horse than the ones Yakteen got to handle from the Baffert clients. National Treasure, Hejazi and Reincarnate are no different with Yakteen than they were with Baffert. Fort Bragg and Carmel may have something to offer at some point but are just horses.

[freddymo]

Steve, the point is that once they go to Yakteen, they either go sideways or backward. You believe that if Baffert had them, they would be going sideways or backward, but historically the best dirt trainer in my life continues to improve them thru the spring. That isn't a slight on Yakteen. How many years does Baffert not have at least one that blossoms into a genuine G1 colt? Not often.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve, the point is that once they go to Yakteen, they either go sideways or backward. You believe that if Baffert had them, they would be going sideways or backward, but historically the best dirt trainer in my life continues to improve them thru the spring. That isn't a slight on Yakteen. How many years does Baffert not have at least one that blossoms into a genuine G1 colt? Not often.

Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.

They were mediocrities? Reincarnate ran a 95 Beyer in January. He’s regressed Beyer wise in both starts for Yakteen. Pure speculation but Baffert 3 year olds typically improve from January of their 3 year old year, not take two steps back.

Carmel Road ran an 82 in the summer of his two year old year and was 2nd to Practical Move at Los Al. He was basically eased in the Gotham.

Maybe Fort Bragg isn’t much. I’ll give you that one.

National Treasure ran mid to high 90 Beyers as a 2 year old. Ran the same fig in the SA Derby. As Freddy said, they’re not showing normal improvement that you’d see a 3 year old name under any trainer, and certainly not the kind of improvement you see when Baffert trains.

I didn’t think this was a particularly hot take. You can see these horses are not the same with Yakteen. We’ve seen Yakteen can develop a horse. Why can’t he develop the former Baffert’s? I think it’s a fair question. I’m surprised you don’t.