TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[Kasept]

5/5/18 ~ Kentucky Derby (1 1/4M) Churchill Downs

1. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez (50-1)
2. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado (30-1)
3. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanarie (30-1)
4. Flameaway-$ 70 (John Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano (30-1)
5. Audible 110 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano (8-1)
6. Good Magic 134 (e Five, Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz (12-1)
7. Justify 100 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith (3-1)
8. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham (50-1)
9. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
10. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife, Monomoy) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux (30-1)
11. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza (8-1)
12. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado (30-1)
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras (50-1)
14. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore (5-1)
15. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)
17. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables, Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat (30-1)
18. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole, St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez (12-1)
19. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar, Repole) Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux (12-1)
20. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana (30-1)
AE-21. Blended Citizen-$ 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey (50-1)


5/19/18 ~ Preakness Stakes (1 3/16M) Pimlico

Justify (Baffert)
Good Magic (Brown)
Lone Sailor (Amoss)
Bravazo (Lukas)
Sporting Chance (Lukas)
Tenfold (Asmussen)
Quip (Brisset)
Diamond King (Jo. Servis)


6/9/18 ~ Belmont Stakes (1 1/2M) Belmont Park

Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill)
Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas)
Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans)
Gronkowski (Chad Brown)
Hofburg (Bill Mott)
Justify (Bob Baffert)
Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher)
Restoring Hope (Baffert)
Tenfold (Steve Asmussen)
Vino Rosso (Pletcher)

[taxicab]

I like the Lexington bump up in points(I think it's an increase).
Turfway takes a hit for sure.

[Kasept]

5/12/18 ~ Peter Pan (1 1/8M) Belmont Park

Blended Citizen (O'Neill)
Ax Man (Baffert)
Core Beliefs (Eurton)
High North (Cox)
Zing Zang (Asmussen)
Gotta Go (Wilkes)


4/14/18 Arkansas Derby (1 1/8M) Oaklawn Park (100-40-20-10)

Magnum Moon (Pletcher) 100
Quip (Brisset) 40
Solomini (Baffert) 20
Combatant (Asmussen) 10


4/14/18 ~ Lexington (1 1/16M) Keeneland (20-8-4-2)

My Boy Jack (Desormeaux) 20
Telekinesis (Casse) 8
Pony Up (Pletcher) 4
Greyvitos (Kitchingman) 2


4/7/18 ~ Wood Memorial (1 1/8M) Aqueduct (100-40-20-10)

Vino Rosso (Pletcher) 100
Enticed (McLaughlin) 40
Restoring Hope (Baffert) 20
Firenze Fire (Ja. Servis) 10


4/7/18 ~ Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8M) Santa Anita (100-40-20-10)

Justify (Baffert) 100
Bolt d'Oro (Ruis) 40
Core Beliefs (Eurton) 20
Instilled Regard (Hollendorfer) 10


4/7/18 ~ Blue Grass (1 1/8M) Keeneland (100-40-20-10)

Good Magic (Brown) 100
Flameaway (Casse) 40
Free Drop Billy (Romans) 20
Sporting Chance (Lukas) 10


3/31/18 ~ Florida Derby (1 1/8M) Gulfstream (100-40-20-10)

Audible (Pletcher) 100
Hofburg (Mott) 40
Mississippi (Casse) 20
Catholic Boy (Thomas) 10


3/31/18 ~ UAE Derby (1 3/16M) Meydan (100-40-20-10)

Mendelssohn (O'Brien) 100
Rayya (Watson) 40
Reride (Asmussen) 20
Gold Town (Appleby) 10


3/24/18 ~ Louisiana Derby (1 1/8M) Fair Grounds (100-40-20-10)

Noble Indy (Pletcher) 100
Lone Sailor (Amoss) 40
My Boy Jack (Desormeaux) 20
Givemeaminit (Stewart) 10


3/25/18 ~ Sunland Derby (1 1/8M) Sunland Park (50-20-10-5)

Runaway Ghost (Fincher) 50
Dream Baby Dream (Asmussen) 20
Seven Trumpets (Romans) 10
Peace (Mandella) 5


3/17/18 ~ Rebel (1 1/16 M) Oaklawn (50-20-10-5)

Magnum Moon (Pletcher) 50
Solomini (Baffert) 20
Combatant (Asmussen) 10
Title Ready (Asmussen) 5


3/10/18 ~ Gotham (1M) Aqueduct (50-20-10-5)

Enticed (KMc) 50
Old Time Revival (Decker) 20
Free Drop Billy (Romans) 10
Firenze Fire (Ja. Servis) 5


3/10/18 ~ Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16M) Tampa Bay Downs (50-20-10-5)

Quip (Brisset) 50
Flameaway (Casse) 20
World of Trouble (Ja. Servis) 10
Vino Rosso (Pletcher) 5


3/10/18 ~ San Felipe (1 1/16M) Santa Anita (50-20-10-5)

Bolt d'Oro (Ruis) 50
McKinzie (Baffert) 20
Kanthaka (Hollendorfer) 10
Peace (Mandella) 5


3/3/18 ~ Fountain of Youth (1 1/16M) Gulfstream (50-20-10-5)

Promises Fulfilled (Romans) 50
Strike Power (Hennig) 20
Good Magic (Brown) 10
Machismo (Quartarolo) 5

[Hoblin]

Thanks, Steve, for compiling this list and updating it regularly. It's very much appreciated!

I'm happy to see Dark Templar taking a shot in the Louisiana Derby. I think he has a chance to step up his game at big odds against a field that includes at least three Graded Stakes winners.

[Kasept]

1. Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon) 150 (Lawana L. & Robert E. Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez ($1,140,000)
2. Good Magic (Curlin) 134 (e Five & Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz ($1,838,400)
3. Audible (Into Mischief) 110 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano ($803,520)
4. Noble Indy (Take Charge Indy) 110 (WinStar & Repole) Todd Pletcher/TBA ($640,000)
5. Vino Rosso (Curlin) 107 (Repole & St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez ($572,500)
6. Bolt d’Oro (Md'O) 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza ($980,000)
7. Enticed (Md'O) 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado ($545,880)
8. Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore ($1,947,299)
9. Justify (Scat Daddy) 100 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith ($600,000)
10. $-Flameaway (Scat Daddy) 70 (John C. Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano ($672,260)
11. Solomini (Curlin) 54 (Zayat Stables & Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat ($716,000)
12. Bravazo (Awesome Again) 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/TBA ($359,913)
13. My Boy Jack (Creative Cause) 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoys) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux ($622,000)
14. Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford) 52 (Robert J. Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie ($266,480)
15. Free Drop Billy (Union Rags) 44 (Albaugh Family Stables) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor (Majestic Warrior) 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg (Tapit) 40 (Juddmonte Farms) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire (Poseidon's Warrior) 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant (Scat Daddy) 22 (Winchell & Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard (Arch) 22 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. $-Blended Citizen 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey ($159,644)
22. Dream Baby Dream 20 (Dream Baby Dream Racing) Steve Asmussen/$181,000
23. Restoring Hope 20 (Gary & Mary West) Bob Baffert/$100,000
24. Sporting Chance 12 (Robert C. Baker & William L. Mack) D. Wayne Lukas /$337,000
25. Greyvitos 12 (Triple B Farms) Adam Kitchingman /$310,000
26. Givemeaminit 12 (Valene Farms) Dallas Stewart / $196,000
27. Pony Up 12 (Calumet Farm) Todd Pletcher/$101,580
28. Machismo 5 (Loooch Racing) Anthony Quararolo/$25,422

[blackthroatedwind]

He's not a Derby horse, but Old Time Revival is a cool horse. It's amazing the horses that owner has gotten with pretty much zero pedigrees.

[richard burch]

Good thread...easy to track the contenders as races are finished. Not really seeing a standout horse out of these so far but it's early.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

4/7/18 ~ Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8M) Santa Anita (100-40-20-10)

Justify (Baffert)
Instilled Regard (Hollendorfer)
McKinzie (Baffert)
Bolt d'Oro (Ruis)

It doesn't seem likely that Baffert would run both McKinzie, who already has 40 points, and Justify, who has zero points, in the same race. Justify could finish 3rd by a neck and not make the Derby points cutoff. The Wood and Blue Grass look much softer.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It doesn't seem likely that Baffert would run both McKinzie, who already has 40 points, and Justify, who has zero points, in the same race. Justify could finish 3rd by a neck and not make the Derby points cutoff. The Wood and Blue Grass look much softer.

Right. Keeping them both at SA until he specifies.

[MichiganMattA]

Justify to Oaklawn seems likely. But I’ll trust whatever move that guy makes.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Justify to Oaklawn seems likely. But I’ll trust whatever move that guy makes.

I would think he keeps Justify at SA and ships MAC out. Mac already is in and has more seasoning, Baffert calls audibles all the time so you really never know until he does.

[robfla]

right after the DQ, ( the way I understood the statement on TVG ) Baffert said McKinzie is not racing at SA again before the Derby

[taxicab]

Random Derby Thoughts:
McKinzie: I wonder if he's the type that only does enough to win the race......I don't think the Bolt was ever going to get by him in the San Felipe.
Mississippi/Flameaway: The way trainer Casse handles these two is like night & day,I get that Mississippi is supposed to be the more talented of the two........but in battle I'll go to war with Flameaway nine ways til Sunday.
Strike Power: Scheduled to go in the FLA Derby,If I'm Henning I scoot up North to try the Wood and avoid the clash with Catholic Boy/Promises Fulfilled/Audible.
Audible: He was pretty nervous before the Holy Bull........If Pletcher can settle him down,no telling how good he might run in the FLA Derby.
Steve Asmussen: He has like a gazillion runners on the Trail,sooner or later he's going to have to split them up.
He has Sunland/FG/Keen(?)/OP covered.......but if his stock are all doing well,you have to think AQU/Santa Anita.........or even Dubai might see him saddle one up.
There's no chance Bob Baffert is so upset with the SA stewards DQ of McKinzie that he ships all of his 3yo's out of state for their final prep.........right ?
Wouldn't Justify be the clear favorite in the Wood if he appeared on the scene in NY ?.........just saying.

[MichiganMattA]

Justify is the clear favorite wherever he goes...

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

[RHT2004]

Solomimi feels like thr forgotten horse. I hope he runs huge this weekend. I said early on he could eventually turn the tables on Bolt as distances increased. I like him, and hope he runs well.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

My morning line with close to the 15.43% SA takeout would be:

Bolt 9-5
McK 9-5
Just 9-5
each other horse 50-1

If you're asking about a morning line with zero takeout, I'd make it:

Bolt 2.2-1
McK 2.2-1
Just 2.2-1
each other horse 80-1

(Those "2.2-1"s would obviously look like 2-1 if restricted to the usual ML constraints.)

Justify may have more talent, but Bolt and McKinzie have more seasoning. I can't separate them in the chance to win the next outing, if by some oddity all three were in the same race.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

The ML is supposed to be how the line maker thinks the public will bet a race..........so here's how I think the public would bet the SA Derby if all three were in:
Bolt.............8-5
McKinzie......2-1
Justify.........5-2

BTW: I would take the 5-2 on Justify for the win wager.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The ML is supposed to be how the line maker thinks the public will bet a race..........so here's how I think the public would bet the SA Derby if all three were in:
Bolt.............8-5
McKinzie......2-1
Justify.........5-2

BTW: I would take the 5-2 on Justify for the win wager.

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

[Kasept]

Some Sunland Derby updates: Rampellini-Transgress to pass, per Lukas; Hersh-Mine That Bird winner Reride to UAE Derby.

New York Central, Runaway Ghost, All Out Blitz, Dark Vader head probables.. Baffert certainly sending one..

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

Perhaps(not the jockey part)....
But remember,the morning line maker has to anticipate how the public will bet the race.
The first factor to consider is the betting publics love of betting the class of the race............especially Gr.1 horses vs. non graded types.
History shows they pound the class runners.
Secondly,lets try this:
Throw out the three horses names for just a second.
Horse "A" is a double Grade 1 winner.............the 2yo Champion who just ran giant in a race he badly needed.
Horse "B" is nearly undefeated,already a Grade 1 winner.........who just refused to let the Eclipse Award winning Champion by him in the stretch.
Horse "C" has looked lights out both times,just galloping...........but those wins came in a Maiden race & AlwOC(in the mud).
Also factor in that horses "A"/"B" are the top two rated 3yo's out there.
So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ?