4/1-3 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager ~ Final Pool

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER ~ POOL 4

1 American Pioneer 50-1
2 Cherry Wine 20-1
3 Creator 30-1
4 Cupid 10-1
5 Danzing Candy 12-1
6 Dazzling Gem 50-1

7 Destin 12-1
8 Exaggerator 20-1
9 Flexibility 50-1
10 Gun Runner 15-1
11 Lani 50-1
12 Matt King Coal 50-1

13 Mo Tom 15-1
14 Mohaymen 7-2
15 Mor Spirit 12-1
16 Nyquist 8-1
17 Outwork 30-1
18 Shagaf 30-1

19 Suddenbreakingnews 30-1
20 Swipe 30-1
21 Tom's Ready 20-1
22 Whitmore 20-1
23 Zulu 30-1
24 mutuel field (all others) 10-1

[Kasept]

LIVE ODDS ~ CLOSES AT 6PM

[Kasept]

1 American Pioneer 50-1 84-1
2 Cherry Wine 20-1 55-1
3 Creator 30-1 58-1
4 Cupid 10-1 11-1
5 Danzing Candy 12-1 16-1
6 Dazzling Gem 50-1 99-1

7 Destin 12-1 16-1
8 Exaggerator 20-1 27-1
9 Flexibility 50-1 81-1
10 Gun Runner 15-1 13-1
11 Lani 50-1 25-1
12 Matt King Coal 50-1 44-1

13 Mo Tom 15-1 17-1
14 Mohaymen 7-2 8-1
15 Mor Spirit 12-1 11-1
16 Nyquist 8-1 3-1
17 Outwork 30-1 30-1
18 Shagaf 30-1 17-1

19 Suddenbreakingnews 30-1 34-1
20 Swipe 30-1 29-1
21 Tom's Ready 20-1 70-1
22 Whitmore 20-1 33-1
23 Zulu 30-1 34-1
24 mutuel field (all others) 10-1 10-1

[cakes44]

What are the lowest odds any individual horse has ended up at on any of the futures pools?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

What are the lowest odds any individual horse has ended up at on any of the futures pools?

Point Given, 2-1
Empire Make, 5-2

I think those were the only two under 3-1. (both in the final pool of that year)

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Point Given, 2-1
Empire Make, 5-2

I think those were the only two under 3-1. (both in the final pool of that year)

Does anyone here dare compare Nyquist to Pont Given??

[Alabama Stakes]

Cmon rock head . Point given shoulda won the triple crown if not for gary Stevens impatient rock head head ride in the derby . Didn't he destroy most fields he ever faced .its a little early for that comparison

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Cmon rock head . Point given shoulda won the triple crown if not for gary Stevens impatient rock head head ride in the derby . Didn't he destroy most fields he ever faced .its a little early for that comparison

We had this discussion once before. If a jock either moves a little too soon or is a little too close to the pace, and he ends up getting beat by a length or two, you can make a case that maybe he should have won. But when a horse gets blown off the track by 12 lengths, it's pretty absurd to say the jock cost him the race. Stevens was sitting about 8 lengths back. There were other horses who were much closer to the fast pace, who finished far in front of him. So to say he should have won is absurd.

That reminds me of Jack Van Berg claiming that Alysheba should have won the Belmont. He got beat by about 14 lengths, yet Van Berg claims that if he would have been on the lead, instead of sitting just off the lead, that he would have won. It's absurd.

Horses are not machines. They don't fire every time. When a horse loses by 12 lengths to the same horses he normally beats, there is practically zero chance that it was because of the ride, unless we are talking about some extreme trouble, or some insane suicide pace. I mean if a horse who normally goes the half in :47, runs the half in :44 4/5 in a 1 1/4 mile race, that could conceivably cost a horse 12 lengths. But sitting 8 lengths back, instead of 12 lengths back, is not going to cost you 12 lengths. It may cost you a couple of lengths but not 10 or 12 lengths. I have no idea why Point Given ran so bad in the Ky Derby, but it sure as hell was not because of the ride. The ride might have cost him 2-3 lengths.

A more feasible excuse of why Point Given didn't fire was the condition of the track. He probably just didn't like it. That track was rock hard and lightning fast that day. On a normal Ky Derby track if they run 2:02 in the Derby, that is typically a pretty good time. The year we are talking about, Monarchos ran 1:59 3/5. Monarchos is not Secretariat. That track was obviously at least a second or two faster than normal. When you have a track like that, not every horse is going to like it or handle it. I think Baffert even said that he didn't think the horse really handled the track that day.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Cmon rock head . Point given shoulda won the triple crown if not for gary Stevens impatient rock head head ride in the derby . Didn't he destroy most fields he ever faced .its a little early for that comparison

I believe you are arguing with yourself. I'm pretty sure RHT2004 was saying that Point Given was the far more impressive horse at this point than Nyquist.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1 American Pioneer 50-1 84-1
2 Cherry Wine 20-1 55-1
3 Creator 30-1 58-1
4 Cupid 10-1 11-1
5 Danzing Candy 12-1 16-1
6 Dazzling Gem 50-1 99-1

7 Destin 12-1 16-1
8 Exaggerator 20-1 27-1
9 Flexibility 50-1 81-1
10 Gun Runner 15-1 13-1
11 Lani 50-1 25-1
12 Matt King Coal 50-1 44-1

13 Mo Tom 15-1 17-1
14 Mohaymen 7-2 8-1
15 Mor Spirit 12-1 11-1
16 Nyquist 8-1 3-1
17 Outwork 30-1 30-1
18 Shagaf 30-1 17-1

19 Suddenbreakingnews 30-1 34-1
20 Swipe 30-1 29-1
21 Tom's Ready 20-1 70-1
22 Whitmore 20-1 33-1
23 Zulu 30-1 34-1
24 mutuel field (all others) 10-1 10-1

Whoever wins Wood will be the only underlay. And wood has not been a good Derby indicator

[Benny]

I believe the reason Point Given lost the KD is that he was undertrained, with hopes of havinga triple crown horse after Baffert had come up short before. think he said as much.-------------- so much for that


Baffert said Point Given, ridden by Gary Stevens, was too close to a lightning pace in the Derby.

"In the Preakness, he let the horse decide his own pace, get into his stride," Baffert said. "I think he'll do the same thing in the Belmont."
[url]http://amarillo.com/stories/2001/06/09/spo_pointgiven.shtml#.VwKECaQrLNM[/They did

-- Point Given appeared to be running on a treadmill. Earlier in the morning, he had reared and tossed his exercise rider.

''He never felt comfortable out there,'' Stevens said. ''Maybe it took something out of him.''

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/06/sports/horse-racing-monarchos-makes-his-point-and-roars-to-victory-in-the-derby.html]

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I believe you are arguing with yourself. I'm pretty sure RHT2004 was saying that Point Given was the far more impressive horse at this point than Nyquist.

Im not the sharpest knife in the drawer ya know.
.

[richard burch]

despite Nyquist big win...not feeling derby fever yet....and only 33 days away.


liking gun runner though.