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#1
11-04-2009, 02:12 AM
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Breeders Cup Day 2 thoughts
* Juvie Turf: Interactif is the only American I will consider using in the top two slot in exotics. I will use Euro's in the top two slots and American horses in the 3rd and 4th slots. The theory being only Interactif is likely good enough to win among our horses. The Euro's will either run very well or totally bomb. The Americans are much more likely to run their race... but their race is likely not good enough.
* Turf Sprint: I think California Flag is the clear best of the speed ... Diamondrella the clear best of the closers ... I will stick my neck out in multi-wins with just those two and hope that the pace goes to an extreme. Either way too fast or way too slow. This is a race where almost everyone will be speading. My favorite type of races to be aggressive with in multi-wins. * Sprint: I hate betting 3yo's in this race ... and I've always hated betting Eastern horses in the sprint ... but I love Capt Candyman Can. * Juvenile: Vale of York and Radiohead and longer priced Euro's for the top slot in exotics. All American horses in the 3rd and 4th slots in exotics. * Mile: Euro's in the tops slots and Americans underneath in exotics. This is like playing bingo. Remember the good old days when you always had a very strong opinion in every single BC race? * Dirt Mile: Garret Gomez might really regret taking off Furthest Land. I love Furthest Land. Will bet him and make one-way savor exacta with a Euro on top of him. * Turf: How the hell do the Euro's not win this race? * Classic: I will not form an opinion on Zenyatta until I see how Life is Sweet and Lethal Heat run in the Distaff. If those two make up the exacta in the Distaff ... Zenyatta becomes very scary. If Life Is Sweet and Lethal Heat both run out of the money in the Distaff... Zenyatta would have no shot in hell of winning this and might miss the entire Superfecta. I don't want Summer Bird at all... and though I will use Aidan O' Brien in the 1st slot in exotics .. I won't use him in slots 2, 3 or 4. Why can't Quality Road carry his form to synthetic from a pedigree standpoint? His sire is the same sire as last years Classic winner Raven's Pass - and his dam sire is a great turf sire. I'm playing against the three favorites and using Colonel John, Twice Over, Gio Ponti, Einstein, and Quality Road. No QR for the 3rd and 4th slots due to running style. No CJ for the top slot. 
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#2
11-04-2009, 05:05 AM
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You love CCC in the sprint?
Frankly, I don't believe that at all. First, as you said, you don't like three year olds and sprinters in this race. Second, you've always been pretty lukewarm towards CCC. Most importantly, Gayego is perhaps your favorite sprinter since FS from a few years back, and before that, I have no idea. He comes into the race off an insanely impressive prep, and now all of a sudden you are off him? While CCC certainly has a better chance of winning than the RHT1985 love horse does, he seems really way up against it in here. At this point, Gayego seems like the best play (from a chance of winning vs price) on the day to me. Maybe I should look over the pps first though!
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#3
11-04-2009, 05:36 PM
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Perhaps you're confusing Gayego with Georgie Boy??
Capt Candyman Can's dirt form towers over these ... and Candy Ride has been a solid synthetic sire .. CCC's synthetic race last time out was strong ... and he projects even a better setup this time and figures to be a much better price.
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#4
11-04-2009, 05:46 PM
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#5
11-06-2009, 06:58 PM
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Zenyatta just got moved way up
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#6
11-06-2009, 07:04 PM
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__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
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#7
11-06-2009, 08:21 PM
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She also ran a 105 over the track.... That was good enough to basicley crush these, and she did just that.
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#8
11-06-2009, 11:59 PM
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Drugs, are you really counting on Baffert getting shut out? I'll be surprised. It's possible, but I would not count on this.
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#9
11-07-2009, 11:38 AM
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I'm watching at home today maybe,but If the television coverage is anything like yesterdays was,I guess I will be heading to the OTB to see it.I don't see why the camera has to be constantly moved to different shots throughout the race.The ladies classic yesterday was horrible.
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#10
11-07-2009, 12:43 PM
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Showing the horses in the paddock would be nice too instead of all the chatter and other things they were showing yesterday.
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#11
11-07-2009, 12:46 PM
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I'm putting $50 wp on Richard's Kid. My only wager for the BC.
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#13
11-07-2009, 04:08 PM
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DrugS, thank you for Vale of York. Fantastic call.
__________________
Gentlemen! We're burning daylight! Riders up! -Bill Murray
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#17
11-09-2009, 11:54 AM
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Thanks guys.
Everything worked out great and I just absolutely killed them in the P3s and P4s all day long. Vale of York's win was really big for me. A total absolute game changer because of where the race was positioned on the days card. Betting horses profitably is as much about clever and creative betting strategy as it is about clever and creative sound handicapping. My approach to betting the Turf Sprint (I talked about the strategy in the 1st post) turned out to be an absolute masterpiece...the difference between a very good day and a great day. It allowed me to catch Dancing in Silks in the BC Sprint on a spread with a still affordable ticket. Can't say I liked DiS much, but he did have the fields best last race Beyer - and had proved he can win without the lead.
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#18
11-09-2009, 12:03 PM
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I know most will say coming up with him was all luck ... but I was VERY impressed with Vale Of York's last two races. * In the Royal Lodge Stakes two races back .. the final time for a Mile was 1:39.55 ... on the very same day at the same distance over the same course ... the older Rip Van Winkle needed 1:38.82 to soundly beat the very highly regarded pair of BC Mile runners Zancinto and Delegator. Not only did Vale of York's race produce a super fast time .. but reading the chart commets ... The winner Joshua Tree's comment "Held up early, came wide" 2nd place Waseet's commet "Held up early" 4th place High Twelve comment "slowly into stride. Last of group" Vale of York's comment for running 3rd was "Raced keenly tracking leaders, ridden to challenge 2f out, drifted right and every chance over 1f out, soon hampered by winner, kept on but no extra" There are no pace fractions I could find ... but it was obvious Vale of York was clearly against the race shape .. and he still only ran a few lengths slower than supposed super freak older miler Rip Van Winkle. * In the Grand Criterium in his final BC Juvie Prep .. Vale Of York was 2nd by a neck in a race that went in 1:38.90 seconds. Same day, same track, same distance ... older superstar miler Gladiatorus won a Group 1 race by 4.5 lengths over an undefeated horse in just 1:38.00. They also had a Group Stake for older fillys and mares go 1:39.40 that same day. Again.. not only a supersonic fast race ... but Vale Of York was also against the race shape. The winner Hearts of Fire's comment "held up, 9th straight" 3rd place finisher Mata Keranjag comment "held up, 8th straight" Vale of York's comment as the 2nd place finisher "Led 1 1/2f, 2nd straight, led 3f out, headed inside final furlong, ran on" Clearly against the race shape. The horses racing 1-2-3-4 early on finished 2nd, 8th, 6th, and 10th .. and all well backed at odds of 7/2, 5/1, 9/1, and 9/1. I wouldn't try and make speed figures for Europe races .. but considering which older horses ran the same day as him - and the final times ... he came into the BC Juvie at 30/1 odds even though he had the fields most dominant speed figures .. and he was totally against the race shape in those dominant fig races. I was really crying about the ride he got early on in the race. Vale of York was like gunned out of the gate, than checked and steadied real hard on heels. I was obviously very biased, and need to see the race again, but I was very pissed off with the rider early on ... but after the race .. he's now offically the first Arab guy I ever wanted to kiss on the mouth.
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#19
11-09-2009, 12:06 PM
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Linear Mode
