Two at Toga (2024)

[theguarantee]

I'll give it another go. Feel free to join in.

Best Bet: Race 10 #10 Viggiedal 9/2
Not sure about 9/2 but I really like her chances today off that debut effort. Galloped out very powerfully and had been training up a storm before the debut. Typical Asmussen maintenance since and I think he's got another really fast Young filly and sitting on go today.

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Film Star 5/1
Don't love todays card now that its off the turf and this was as creative as I could get. Will be interesting to see how Linda's horses run compared to last year...I didn't find any of the others particularly compelling in here. Going to guess Linda has this one ready for this spot and maybe its early enough to get some value on her runners.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 9 #5 Twirling Queen 8/1
Best Value Race 7 #6 Addicted to You 15/1

[theguarantee]

Bet: $16.00
Returned: $14.40

Film Star ran OK but seemed a little flat off the layoff. Should've been able to at least grab second. Viggiedal apparently isn't nearly as good as I thought.

Addicted to You gave me a brief thrill. Ultimately wasn't good enough with Ricardo giving a perfect trip. Luis also rode a perfect race laying just off the speed getting it done at 7/2 on Twirling Queen.

Nice card tomorrow.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #6 Whitebeam 4/1
Absolutely love her in here today for better or worse. Think the last couple trips haven't worked out for different reasons. Two back was just way too fast early and thought Prat should've used her speed as more of a weapon in the last. Third off the layoff showing better than she did coming into a win in this last year and there's no In Italian in here...if Evvie Jets doesn't gun I think she's gone and if that one does I think tracking and getting more aggressive earlier will put the rest with too much to do late and hopefully she can hang on this time.
Best Value: Race 12 #5 Heymackitsjack 8/1
Not sure why Prat opted for King Moonracer in here but I think can prove best of speed with a better break today. Still ran well off the layoff jn the last showing a different dynamic. I think with a good break today will be tough to catch and I'm way against the favorite in here.

Good luck.

[Sethcarter]

I will play along with you in the same races..

10th mission of joy... motion going long on the grass is always dangerous at a price. Looking for Johnny V to stay closer and look for the rail to open up...
whitebeard might be alone on the lead and without pressure. They aren't catching him.

Race 12... Sugar Gray Leonard. Ortiz gets back on board and he is a master ar sprint races. His works places him in the money here.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

I will play along with you in the same races..

10th mission of joy... motion going long on the grass is always dangerous at a price. Looking for Johnny V to stay closer and look for the rail to open up... whitebeard might be alone on the lead and without pressure. They aren't catching him.

I agree, I wanted to like Mission of Joy. Tried her last out and think she's quite good. Can argue she ran about as well as anyone in there. I fell in love with Whitebeam but if she wins and Mission of Joy runs 2nd or third I should have some nice exactas and tris. Best of luck.

[moses]

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

Mose.. Mazel Tov! 4??? Wow...

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

Congratulations... then you are not like steve and i.... we were born long enough to see and buy peanuts at the planter stores

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

Congrats Moses. Feel free to jump in in any says you get enough time to cap. Always appreciate your opinions. Same to dahoss and of course anyone else.

That was sweet on Whitebeam today, wish I connected the dots better but so far profited on 2/3 days at the Spa. Doubt it continues but will take that every week of the meet.

Nice Sunday card tomorrow I'm also looking forward to....hope everyone had a nice first Saturday of the meet.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

Congrats and best of luck buddy

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck on this. I’ll probably have to skip on trying this year. My wife and I just had our 4th child (1st son) in June and I’m definitely not going to have time to do it.

Hope everyone has a great Toga.

Always time for Saratoga

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 6 # 10 Latte Lizzie 6/1 - Get why anyone would be tired of her act by now and maybe she's just not that good...but should be a decent price for Irad/Chad and was as fast as any of these as a 2yo. The last was really flat but hope she needed that off a freshening and if she can improve off her form from last year doesn't have to get that much better today. The entry does look pretty tough though and I also tried to make a case for Appellate who I do think is a little interesting in here as well.

Best Value: race 4 #5 My Kentucky Girl 12/1 - Going to try to get a form reversal in here, she has a race far back at this distance that could make her tough in here and the price will be right. Hoping the switch to Mott and the layoff and she's back in form today.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value: race 4 #5 My Kentucky Girl 12/1 - Going to try to get a form reversal in here, she has a race far back at this distance that could make her tough in here and the price will be right. Hoping the switch to Mott and the layoff and she's back in form today.

Super job!

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Super job!

Thanks Steve. That was pretty sweet. Thought the early races would be chalky with that as my one clever idea. Was able to catch the early pick 5 on a $12 ticket. Certainly kicking myself fir only having it for the minimum. Still was a very nice bankroll boost early on and had a pretty lucrative first week so I will take it.

Hope everyone had a nice opening week...ive started hot a few times and cooled badly so hoping I can sustain better this year.

Bet: $32.00
Returned: $74.90

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Mose.. Mazel Tov! 4??? Wow...

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Congratulations... then you are not like steve and i.... we were born long enough to see and buy peanuts at the planter stores

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Congrats Moses. Feel free to jump in in any says you get enough time to cap. Always appreciate your opinions. Same to dahoss and of course anyone else.

That was sweet on Whitebeam today, wish I connected the dots better but so far profited on 2/3 days at the Spa. Doubt it continues but will take that every week of the meet.

Nice Sunday card tomorrow I'm also looking forward to....hope everyone had a nice first Saturday of the meet.

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Congrats and best of luck buddy

Originally Posted by jms62

Always time for Saratoga

Thanks all. Four is pretty crazy but all the credit goes to my wife for keeping everyone in line (mostly me, to be honest).

I’ll still be making some bets at Saratoga but won’t have the time to look at it every day. If I see anything I really love, I’ll try to post.

I jokingly told people that I was going to name him after the greatest athlete that ever lived. People guessed things like Jordan and Brady and so on…and I’d tell them — no, Secretariat (for better or worse, my wife vetoed that idea).

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 8: #4 My Shea D Lady 8/1
Best Value: Race 7 #4 She's Awesome 6/1

[theguarantee]

My Shea D Lady won pretty well but lost all value due to the scratches. Ill update totals after today.

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Grayosh 9/2
Best Value: Race 7 #2 Principe D'Oro 8/1

[theguarantee]

Bet: $48.00
Returned: $88.50

Tough beat for Grayosh who i thought was home midstretch after a less than ideal trip. Tyler's ride on Proctor Street made the difference. Dagger because I didn't have time for a write up but would've expressed I really liked Grayosh today. Had a large win bet (for me) and may have cost me many multis pending the result of the 10th. Thought the maiden was exceptional and really thought the Wonder Again had major excuses. Didn't like the other chalks at all but unfortunately didn't like the winner at all, who in hindsight was a big overlay at todays odds off that debut with lots of upside.

Interestingly I was listening to the Bet with the Best podcast today a while after making my picks and Aragona who was the latest guest pointed out how tough it can be form the Wilson chute on the rail. Watch the head on for Principe D'Oro for a case in point. Not sure the horse was nearly good enough but that was quite the trip, even more trouble after the disaster of a start. As someone in the minority and actually likes rail draws in many instances that might be worth considering moving forward.

Onto tomorrow.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Bet: $48.00
Returned: $88.50

Tough beat for Grayosh who i thought was home midstretch after a less than ideal trip. Tyler's ride on Proctor Street made the difference. Dagger because I didn't have time for a write up but would've expressed I really liked Grayosh today. Had a large win bet (for me) and may have cost me many multis pending the result of the 10th. Thought the maiden was exceptional and really thought the Wonder Again had major excuses. Didn't like the other chalks at all but unfortunately didn't like the winner at all, who in hindsight was a big overlay at todays odds off that debut with lots of upside.

Interestingly I was listening to the Bet with the Best podcast today a while after making my picks and Aragona who was the latest guest pointed out how tough it can be form the Wilson chute on the rail. Watch the head on for Principe D'Oro for a case in point. Not sure the horse was nearly good enough but that was quite the trip, even more trouble after the disaster of a start. As someone in the minority and actually likes rail draws in many instances that might be worth considering moving forward.

Onto tomorrow.

Nice Start