Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: Art Collector/Medina Spirit ~ !07

[Kasept]

BEL Champagne S (G1): Jack Christopher 93 (Munnings) C. Brown/J. Ortiz
BEL Frizette S (G1): Echo Zulu 90 (Gun Runner) S. Asmussen/R. Santana
BEL Woodward S (G1): Art Collector 107 (Bernardini) W. Mott/L. Saez
BEL BEL Turf Sprint S (G3): Arrest Me Red 100 (Pioneerof the Nile) W. Ward/I. Ortiz
BEL Miss Grillo S (G2): Sail By 69 (Astern-AUS) L. Gyarmati/J. Alvarado
BEL Pilgrim S (G2): Annapolis 89 (War Front) T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz
BEL F-T Waya S (G3): My Sister Nat-FR 94 (Acclamation-GB) C. Brown/J. Ortiz
BEL John Hettinger S: Myhartblongstodady 78 (Scat Daddy) J. Abreu/J. Lezcano

SA Rodeo Drive S (G1): Going to Vegas 98 (Goldencents) R. Baltas/U. Rispoli
SA Awesome Again S (G1): Medina Spirit 107 (Protonico) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez
SA American Pharoah S (G1): Corniche 85 (Quality Road) B. Baffert/M. Smith
SA Chandelier S (G2): Ain't Easy 81 (Into Mischief) P. D'Amato/J. Rosario
SA John Henry Turf S (G2): United 99 (Giant's Causeway) R. Mandella/F. Prat
SA SA Sprint Ch. S (G2): Dr. Schivel 103 (Violence) M. Glatt/F. Prat
SA City of Hope Mile S (G2): Mo Forza 100 (Uncle Mo) P. Miller/F. Prat
SA Eddie D S (G2): Lieutenant Dan 99 (Grazen) S. Miyadi/G. Franco
SA Zenyatta S (G2): Private Mission 96 (Into Mischief) B. Baffert/F. Prat
SA Chillingworth S (G3): Ce Ce 95 (Elusive Quality) M. McCarthy/V. Espinoza
SA Speakeasy S: One Timer 70 (Trappe Shot) L. Rivelli/E. Baird
SA Surfer Girl S: Cairo Memories 70 (Cairo Prince) R. Hess/K. Desormeaux
SA Zuma Beach S: Mackinnon 76 (American Pharoah) D. O'Neill/J. Hernandez
SA Unzip Me S: Zero Tolerance 89 (Mizzen Mast) P. Miller/F. Prat
SA 2yo MSW (6f): Winning Map 85 (Liam's Map) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez
SA OC/N2X (8.5f): Eight Rings 98 (Empire Maker) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez
SA OC/N1X (1m-T): Subconscious 92 (Tapit) R. Mandella/J. Hernandez

CD Lukas Classic S (G3): Knicks Go 104 (Paynter) B. Cox/J. Rosario
CD Ack Ack S (G3): Plainsman 100 (Flatter) B. Cox/J. Rosario
CD Seneca S: Crazy Beautiful 91 (Liam's Map) K. McPeek/B. Hernandez
CD 2yo MSW (1m): Trafalgar 81 (Lord Nelson) A. Stall/J. Rosario
CD 2yo MSW (6.5f): Dr. Perry 82 (Into Mischief) S. Asmussen/J. Rosario
CD 3+ MSW (1m): Cody's Wish 92 (Curlin) B. Mott/J. Rosario

LRL Laurel Futurity: Ready to Purrform 74 (Kitten's Joy) B. Cox/J. Toledo
LRL Selima S: Consumer Spending 76 (More Than Ready) C. Brown/V. Carrasco
LRL Laurel Dash S: Xy Speed 90 (First Samurai) G. Bennett/J. Ruiz
LRL All Along S: Tuned-GB 90 (Toronado-IRE) H. Motion/F. Lynch
LRL Japan Turf Cup S: Tide of the Sea 92 (English Channel) M. Maker/H. Karamanos

WO Wonder Where S: Munnyfor Ro 78 (Munnings) K. Attard/J. Stein
WO Breeders' S: British Royalty 92 (English Channel) B. Minshall/P. Husbands
WO ON Fashion S (G3): Amalfi Coast 89 (Tapizar) K. Attard J. Stein

FL Lady Finger S: Curly Girl 52 (Nyquist) P. Barrow/A. Worrie
FL Aspirant S: Adios Asher 82 (Adios Charlie) L. Rivelli/E. Baird

PID Peach Street S: Talk Or Listen-IRE 90 (Alhebayeb-IRE) A. Delacour/P. Morales

[southerndutch]

Steve, do you have the Beyer for Youre to Blame in the fifth on Saturday?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

Steve, do you have the Beyer for Youre to Blame in the fifth on Saturday?

91

[southerndutch]

Thanks, Steve. I was interested because I thought Jack Christopher’s Beyer came back a little high, since it was the slowest Champagne(when run at a mile) since 1989. The mile time for the fifth on Saturday was virtually the same as JC’s final time 3 races later, so the number makes sense.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

Thanks, Steve. I was interested because I thought Jack Christopher’s Beyer came back a little high, since it was the slowest Champagne(when run at a mile) since 1989. The mile time for the fifth on Saturday was virtually the same as JC’s final time 3 races later, so the number makes sense.

HUH?

[southerndutch]

I thought Jack Christopher’s Beyer of 93 was a little high for a race that was the slowest Champagne since 1989. So I wanted to compare it to the dirt routes that were run earlier on the card. The 4th race a 40 n2l claimer was not comparable, so I went to the 5th race, an 80 optional claimer @ 8 1/2 furlongs that the mile split was 1:37:2, one tick slower than JC’s mile. When that race came back with a 91 Beyer, I could see how JC was awarded a 93. However, I still feel the time of the Champagne was very mediocre, particularly the final 1/4 in 26:1. We shall see.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

I thought Jack Christopher’s Beyer of 93 was a little high for a race that was the slowest Champagne since 1989. So I wanted to compare it to the dirt routes that were run earlier on the card. The 4th race a 40 n2l claimer was not comparable, so I went to the 5th race, an 80 optional claimer @ 8 1/2 furlongs that the mile split was 1:37:2, one tick slower than JC’s mile. When that race came back with a 91 Beyer, I could see how JC was awarded a 93. However, I still feel the time of the Champagne was very mediocre, particularly the final 1/4 in 26:1. We shall see.

You understand final fractions, especially in dirt races, are related to how quickly the early fractions were run....right?

[southerndutch]

Yes, I am aware of that, but I don’t think an opening 1/4 of 23:4 should impact the final quarter that negatively. Like I said, we shall see.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

Yes, I am aware of that, but I don’t think an opening 1/4 of 23:4 should impact the final quarter that negatively. Like I said, we shall see.

It's good not to tailor the truth to fit our personal agendas. Try comparing the first two fractions to those of the Woodward, as an aside a figure that for some reason you are not questioning despite it relying on the Champagne number being correct, before determining whether or not they were fast or slow.

[southerndutch]

I’m not attempting “ to tailor the truth.” I did not use theWoodward because it was 14 points higher and thus not comparable. I used the 5th race because it was comparable and it pointed out that the number was valid, which is all I was attempting to do, as I originally thought the number was too high but was proven wrong. P.S. I still don’t think that was a strong finish. We’ll find out down the road.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

I’m not attempting “ to tailor the truth.” I did not use theWoodward because it was 14 points higher and thus not comparable. I used the 5th race because it was comparable and it pointed out that the number was valid, which is all I was attempting to do, as I originally thought the number was too high but was proven wrong. P.S. I still don’t think that was a strong finish. We’ll find out down the road.

Of course it's comparable. Making that statement sort of disqualifies you from questioning numbers. Not sure how an 8.5 furlong fig is comparable to an 8 furlong one while a 9 furlong one, all around one turn, is not.

We got it. You don't like Jack Christopher, a son of Munnings, in the KY Derby. Not exactly putting yourself out on a limb here. However, none of that has anything to do with his fig.

[southerndutch]

After this discourse. I can really sympathize with Anthony Stabile.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

After this discourse. I can really sympathize with Anthony Stabile.

Sorry if you have a problem with being asked to defend your opinion. Opinions have no merit if they can't be backed up....regardless of who gives them or where. I think true racing fans and bettors appreciate intelligent discourse.

[southerndutch]

I do appreciate intelligent discourse. My prior comment about Anthony was “tongue in cheek” as I truly enjoy the pre card bantering between the two of you. As for defending myself, what’s to defend? I sought out a number, that number indicated my original hypothesis was incorrect. I then stated an opinion that can only be verified by future races.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

After this discourse. I can really sympathize with Anthony Stabile.

Perhaps you would like to purchase a few dozen of the lunch wagers he has lost to Andy?

[southerndutch]

It would be my pleasure to pick up the tab for a lunch with Andy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

It would be my pleasure to pick up the tab for a lunch with Andy.

Freddy will be happy to hear there is some relief on the way:-)

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by southerndutch

It would be my pleasure to pick up the tab for a lunch with Andy.

I was kidding as well. The reality is we are all interested in the puzzle that is handicapping. Making figures is fairly rudimentary, knowing how to apply them in your sausage making is much more difficult. Did the 91 fig for Jackies Warrior have much value? Was it a good speed value for the race that day, Yes?.
The second race of his career against a good group that smells like a really good data-based number. Do I like prospects of the TAP that finished second better sure but like you say we will see?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Freddy will be happy to hear there is some relief on the way:-)

I think for Christmas I am going to buy out Stabile's position from him and let him start over again in '22 a fresh gelding. I will donate a thousand bucks to TRF or Chaplaincy in his name. Somebody has to get him out.