10/13: Sha Tin ~ Luke Middlebrook

[Kasept]

Luke Middlebrook's Happy Valley
Wednesday, September 25, 2024


Race 1: #1 Joyful Prosperity, #7 Sunny Baby, #3 Arthur’s Kingdom, #4 Fruit Warrior
Race 2: #7 Gallant Goody, #6 Speedy Chariot, #2 Dan Attack, #8 Beau Gosse
Race 3: #7 Sight Happy, #10 Talents Supremo, #2 Aeroinvincible, #5 Nebraskan
Race 4: #8 Foremost Teddy, #9 Gale Saga, #2 Snowalot, #4 Turin Warrior
Race 5: #6 Chain Of Gold, #12 I Can, #3 Samarkand, #4 Noble Pursuit
Race 6: #4 Matsu Victor, #8 Super Unicorn, #5 Brave Witness, #10 Gallant Crown
Race 7: #1 Prime Mortar, #2 Aurora Lady, #6 New Power, #7 Spicy Gold
Race 8: #3 Midori Glory, #1 Youthful Spirits, #4 O’Liner, #7 Healthy Healthy


Race 1 - WAN CHAI HANDICAP
#1 Joyful Prosperity faced a challenge from a wide gate first-up but made an eye-catching late charge to finish third. With a much-improved draw this week and a recent stable switch to Danny Shum appearing beneficial, his chances look promising. #7 Sunny Baby finished strongly into the runner-up position first-up over a mile at Sha Tin. He reunites with Zac Purton, who has been aboard for all three of his career wins, and the step up to 1800m should suit him well. #3 Arthur’s Kingdom ended his last campaign in fine form, culminating in an all-the-way victory. He looks poised to start this season on a high note. #4 Fruit Warrior had just one run in Class 5 last term, where he performed respectably despite racing wide mid-race. Expect to see improvement here.

Race 2 - QUARRY BAY HANDICAP
#7 Gallant Goody returns to the races and was eye-catching in his lead-up trial, following his best performance in his final run last season. He appears poised to make further progress this preparation. #6 Speedy Chariot finished nicely into fourth first-up, marking his initial attempt in Class 5. He can continue to improve second-up. #2 Dan Attack makes his debut in Class 5 here. He has been a tricky horse to catch, but this type of race should present a more manageable challenge. #8 Beau Gosse joined Francis Lui’s stable at the end of last season and resumed this preparation with a solid fourth-place finish, despite overdoing things on the lead.

Race 3 - NORTH POINT HANDICAP
#7 Sight Happy has potential. He over-raced fresh, but expect better things to come from him with more racing under his belt. He has drawn nicely low, which should give him every chance. #10 Talents Supremo comes out of a strong form race, finishing fifth to Packing Hermod. He needs to jump well to maximise his chances, though. #2 Aeroinvincible raced too keenly and was checked when beaten as a short-priced favourite first-up; he deserves another opportunity, although the wide draw isn’t ideal. #5 Nebraskan began to find his form towards the end of last season after a class drop, hinting at improvement to come.

Race 4 - KWUN TONG HANDICAP
#8 Foremost Teddy can be sided with here, especially with Purton on board from barrier 1. He was a solid third at this course and distance last time out, and he’s on an upward trend this preparation. #9 Gale Saga is lightly raced; despite breaking through in Class 5 last time, the rise to Class 4 should suit him well. He has more to come. #2 Snowalot will benefit from a rise in distance second-up, and reuniting with Lyle Hewitson is a positive. Barrier 2 ensures he gets the right run. #4 Turin Warrior may not be a prolific winner, but with Hugh Bowman in the saddle and having trialled strongly for his return, he should get his chance.

Race 5 - CENTRAL HANDICAP
#6 Chain Of Gold looked progressive last season, culminating in a big first local win, and he should have more to offer this campaign. #12 I Can was ridden conservatively from a wide draw first-up but finished strongly into third at this course and distance. Again drawing wide, he might find a handier position since there isn’t much speed on paper. #3 Samarkand resumed nicely with a narrow second to Helene Warrior. With Purton taking over the reins, he’s a strong contender to be right in the mix. #4 Noble Pursuit is a talent with three wins from ten starts; while he may need further, he can still perform well fresh.

Race 6 - KWUN TONG HANDICAP
#4 Matsu Victor looks one to stick with after winning his first race at this course and distance in fine style last start, despite racing wide from barrier 10. He’ll benefit from stepping away from barrier 1 here, which should ensure a perfect run in transit. #8 Super Unicorn was edging closer to a win before the season ended, and with Purton riding from barrier 2, he should be in the mix. #5 Brave Witness can be followed up on after his maiden win at the end of last season. #10 Gallant Crown raced wide without cover first-up but wasn’t beaten by far; drawing barrier 4 should bring him better luck in the run.

Race 7 - NORTH POINT HANDICAP
#1 Prime Mortar made inroads after transferring to Tony Cruz last season. He was runner-up in his last two races to horses like Packing Hermod, which reads well for a race like this. #2 Aurora Lady ran a promising third behind up-and-comer Packing Power first-up, setting him up well for his second-up run in a race where many are resuming. #6 New Power put together two consecutive wins last season and seems to thrive at this course and distance; barrier 1 will give him every chance. #7 Spicy Gold concluded his season with a solid maiden win, and he may still have points in hand.

Race 8 - CAUSEWAY BAY HANDICAP
#3 Midori Glory burst onto the local scene with an impressive victory at this course and distance in late May. Although he failed to deliver second-up, he looks poised to return in good order after a break and an encouraging trial performance. #1 Youthful Spirits always rates a chance in races like this; his early speed ensures a favourable position, and Purton remaining in the saddle is a plus. #4 O’Liner resumes for a new trainer, Jamie Richards, and benefits from drawing barrier 1; his recent trial win was encouraging. #7 Healthy Healthy is an interesting runner returning on a quick seven-day turnaround; a bit of match fitness could give him an edge, though the wide draw could prove tricky.

[Kasept]

FORM GUIDE

[Kasept]

Happy Valley Selections

(Wednesday, October 9, 2024)

Race 1: #6 Running Ahead, #1 Go Go Go, #2 Kasa Papa, #7 Right Honourable

Race 2: #2 Speedy Fortune, #1 Parents’ Love, #3 Ace Talent, #4 Good View Glory

Race 3: #7 Super Unicorn, #1 Northern Beast, #2 Flying Wrote, #3 Kimberley

Race 4: #1 King Eccellente, #3 Aurora Lady, #5 Unison, #11 Never Peter Out

Race 5: #5 Gallant Valour, #1 High Percentage, #7 Happy Park, #12 Tactical Command

Race 6: #1 Swift Ascend, #9 Talents Supremo, #3 Nebraskan, #2 King Glorioso

Race 7: #12 I Can, #8 Setanta, #3 M Unicorn, #7 Fighting Machine

Race 8: #11 Chateauneuf, #6 Golden Empire, #1 Reward Smile, #5 Super Joy N Fun



Race 1 - LI YUEN HANDICAP

#6 Running Ahead showed promise on his Class 5 debut over this course and distance, closing strongly into fourth despite a wide draw. Moving to barrier
1 here gives his connections an excellent chance to settle closer to the pace and boost his winning chances. #1 Go Go Go has been ultra-consistent, and with Zac Purton staying aboard from barrier 4, it's tough to see him running a bad race. #2 Kasa Papa is
one to follow now that he drops into Class 5 for the first time. The booking of Hugh Bowman is a key positive, and despite having excuses in Class 4 after a late-season stable switch to Tony Cruz, he's been performing well. #7 Right Honourable, second-up,
signalled that a win could be near with a solid third-place finish. The old boy may still have something to offer here.

Race 2 - MAN CHEUNG HANDICAP

#2 Speedy Fortune could break through as David Eustace’s first winner in Hong Kong. While it’s a competitive race for Class 5, the horse finished last season
in solid form, placing twice at this level on the downgrade. His trials leading into this race have been positive without being fully tested. #1 Parents’ Love signalled his readiness with a close second at this course and distance in his first Class 5 run
last time out. Zac Purton stays aboard, and a maiden victory seems imminent. #3 Ace Talent also has strong claims, especially with the in-form Caspar Fownes and Hugh Bowman partnership combining. The horse's form is consistent and hard to overlook. #4 Good
View Glory was impressive winning at this course and distance two starts ago, but his subsequent run at Sha Tin was below expectations. With the benefit of barrier 1 here, he can bounce back.

Race 3 - MAN YIU HANDICAP

#7 Super Unicorn will be well-fancied as Frankie Lor and Zac Purton team up with this maiden who is overdue for a win. Last time out, he was a luckless
runner-up after racing ungenerously and being steadied at a crucial moment. With barrier 1 in his favour, he looks poised to finally break through. #1 Northern Beast has barrier 11 to contend with, but second-up conditions should suit him better than first-up,
when he was in need of the run. He also reunites with Hugh Bowman at a track he’s had success on. #2 Flying Wrote tries this distance for the first time, but his solid trial form between races suggests he could be a knockout chance. #3 Kimberley has switched
to the Danny Shum stable in the off-season and showed improvement in his trials, so a better performance can be expected.

Race 4 - HARBOUR VIEW HANDICAP

#1 King Eccellente returns to Class 4, where his chances tend to be stronger. He’s a fit horse after two runs this season and has the advantage of Hugh
Bowman taking the reins from a favourable draw in barrier 4. #3 Aurora Lady has been knocking on the door for a win and ran bravely for fourth last time, despite being asked to do too much on the lead. #5 Unison will improve on his second career start here
after gaining valuable experience first-up, and barrier 2 will ensure a smooth run. #11 Never Peter Out makes his seasonal return for a new stable, having switched to Frankie Lor's yard. His best effort came late last season, and with barrier 1, he should
get a comfortable trip.

Race 5 - THE HKEX CUP (HANDICAP)

#5 Gallant Valour turned in a solid fourth-place effort first-up and will benefit from improved fitness. He reunites with Hugh Bowman and draws well in
gate 4, giving him a good chance in this highly competitive race. #1 High Percentage was in stellar form last season, winning two consecutive races by wide margins before a setback. With Zac Purton aboard and barrier 1, he’s well-positioned to return to his
best provided he is back in good health. #7 Happy Park is showing steady improvement and his strong Sha Tin form could transfer well to his first run at Happy Valley. #12 Tactical Command delivered an impressive first-up run, his best effort yet in Class 4,
and he looks capable of continuing to perform in this grade.

Race 6 - HARBOUR VIEW HANDICAP

#1 Swift Ascend presents a strong chance for David Eustace to secure a win, dropping into Class 4 for the first time. His past Class 3 performances should
serve him well here. Though first-up after an eight-month break poses a slight query, Zac Purton in the saddle from a low draw in barrier 3 is a positive. #9 Talents Supremo benefits from another good gate in barrier 1, and if he jumps cleanly, he appears
an honest chance. #3 Nebraskan, a late-fading fifth first-up, looked in need of the run but was only beaten less than two lengths, making him a fitter proposition this time. #2 King Glorioso drops into Class 4 for the first time and has shown improvement in
a recent trial under Hugh Bowman, who rides him on race day. He looks ready to take a step forward.

Race 7 - PEDDER HANDICAP

#12 I Can is presented third-up this week, and a kinder barrier draw in gate 2 works in his favour after drawing no lower than 11 in his last four starts.
Despite this, he continues to run well and was beaten by a strong performer last start—he can atone here. #8 Setanta is a backmarker who relies on luck in running, but if he can utilise barrier 1, his winning chances appear strong, especially as he’s racing
well since his transfer to Mark Newnham’s stable. #3 M Unicorn is better suited back at Happy Valley, where his best form has been. Drawing well in barrier 3, he looks poised to figure in the finish. #7 Fighting Machine will be interesting to watch as he steps
into Class 3 for the first time after an easy win at the top of Class 4. Zac Purton sticks with him, though barrier 11 may prove tricky.

Race 8 - POTTINGER HANDICAP

#11 Chateauneuf remains relatively unexposed as he steps up in class following a narrow defeat in Class 4. Drawing barrier 1 works in his favour, particularly
as many of his main rivals have drawn wide and will require significant early luck. He could just find the necessary favours to secure the win. #6 Golden Empire is a potential knockout chance from barrier 4. Now third-up, he has finished close in both of his
runs this campaign and is expected to put in a competitive performance. #1 Reward Smile had a tough task from barrier 11 first-up but finished strongly into second after being held up for much of the straight. A draw in barrier 10 doesn’t ease his chances
here. #5 Super Joy N Fun is a talented horse with three wins from seven starts and likely hasn’t reached his ceiling yet; however, barrier 12 will make it difficult for him to claim victory.

[Kasept]

Sha Tin Selections (Sunday, October 13, 2024)

Race 1: #2 Santorini, #5 Circuit Jolly, #1 Patch Of Cosmo, #9 Northern Fire Ball
Race 2: #8 Super Infinity, #5 Savvy Brilliant, #6 Super Fortune, #2 Captain Win
Race 3: #2 Awesome Fluke, #4 Supreme Agility, #1 Ensued, #3 Packing Hurricane
Race 4: #2 Super Wise Dragon, #13 Cheer For South, #6 Charmander, #3 Yoda’s Choice
Race 5: #3 Thriving Brothers, #5 Endeared, #1 Awesome Treasure, #9 Loving Vibes
Race 6: #14 Chater Gold, #13 Soaring Bronco, #4 Devas Twelve, #5 Family Jewel
Race 7: #4 Galaxy Patch, #8 Chancheng Glory, #5 Red Lion, #6 Straight Arron
Race 8: #7 Jubilant Winner, #2 Sunny Da Best, #11 Team Happy, #1 Stellar Swift
Race 9: #5 Lucy In The Sky, #2 Young Achiever, #3 Beauty Crescent, #6 Silo
Race 10: #6 Wunderbar, #13 Wonderstar, #7 Call Me Glorious, #8 Gorgeous Win



Race 1 - SWIMMING 1200M HANDICAP
#2 Santorini should receive every chance to bounce back and win, especially from barrier 1 with Hugh Bowman taking over the reins. He likely needed his first-up run, and the fast pace close to the lead didn’t suit him. He’s worth another opportunity. #5 Circuit Jolly, a debutant from the David Hayes yard, could make an immediate impact. His trial performances have shown promise, and Zac Purton in the saddle signals readiness for a strong first-up showing. #1 Patch Of Cosmo was ultra-impressive in winning a race of this nature, a Restricted Class 4 for three-year-olds, storming home from a wide draw to win on the line. He looks to have upside. #9 Northern Fire Ball ran boldly on debut, just missing an all-the-way win, and should be competitive again.

Race 2 - ATHLETICS AND JUDO 1200M HANDICAP
#8 Super Infinity steps up to Class 3 after an impressive first-up victory. He still has room for improvement, and his light weight will be an asset as he faces stiffer competition. #5 Savvy Brilliant ran a respectable race on debut over 1000m, finishing well despite early interference and being held up in the final stages. He should prove more competitive second-up. #6 Super Fortune holds a key advantage with his natural early speed, and as the likely leader on paper, he will be tough to reel in. #2 Captain Win brings solid form, having placed behind some talented runners recently, and should find this a slightly easier task.

Race 3 - THE HONG KONG, CHINA'S PARIS 2024 OLYMPIC TEAM CELEBRATION CUP (HANDICAP)
#2 Awesome Fluke returned in strong form when finishing a solid third over a mile, marking his first run for Ricky Yiu. He has proven form over longer trips, making the step up in distance ideal as he seeks a return to winning ways. #4 Supreme Agility is yet to place in five Hong Kong runs, which is surprising given his honest efforts and narrow defeats. Though untested over 2000m, he deserves consideration. #1 Ensued was last seen in the Hong Kong Derby where he raced wide and failed to fire, and resumes from a lengthy break but remains a high-class prospect. #3 Packing Hurricane, second-up over 2000m, will benefit from a more measured ride compared to his first-up effort, where he faded late after doing too much early.

Race 4 - BADMINTON AND CYCLING 1400M HANDICAP
#2 Super Wise Dragon is difficult to catch due to his breathing issues, but he attracts attention first-up for Cody Mo, dropping into Class 5 for the first time. His new stable and class drop could be key factors in sparking improvement. #13 Cheer For South has been underwhelming but hasn't had the best of luck recently. With barrier 1, he'll be afforded every chance to run a more competitive race. #6 Charmander has shown progress since moving to David Hall’s yard, and despite being beaten as the odds-on favourite last start, his second-place finish was solid. He’s a strong contender here back in trip. #3 Yoda’s Choice returns after a quick seven-day turnaround following a promising runner-up effort. While barrier 14 isn't ideal, he's capable of overcoming the wide draw and remains a strong winning prospect in this grade.

Race 5 - FENCING 1200M HANDICAP
#3 Thriving Brothers steps down to Class 4 for the first time in Hong Kong after a commendable first-up effort at the bottom of Class 3, finishing less than a length behind in sixth. While 1400m might be more ideal for him, the drop in class enhances his chances, and the booking of Zac Purton adds further confidence. #5 Endeared is another to consider when dropping in grade. His career has been hindered by poor draws, but he consistently puts in sound performances. #1 Awesome Treasure has drawn gate 10 with 10lb apprentice Britney Wong aboard. They are likely to roll forward and give sight, as usual. #9 Loving Vibes lines up for his second career start, and his debut last season was eye-catching from his wide draw. This time, with a better gate, he should find a handier position in the run and be within striking range to challenge.

Race 6 - SAILING 1600M HANDICAP
#14 Chater Gold showed plenty of merit last start, finishing fourth despite an early check and being held up for a clear run in the straight. From a wide draw, he'll need to be ridden with early intent but is trending towards a win. #13 Soaring Bronco benefits from an inside gate and drops back to a more suitable distance. His recent runs have been encouraging, and he should get the right amount of favours here. #4 Devas Twelve impressed with a first-up win and has plenty of upside. Proven at the mile, he is favoured to win again with some luck from the widest gate. #5 Family Jewel aims for back-to-back course and distance wins, still looking untapped after just four starts.

Race 7 - THE SHA TIN TROPHY (HANDICAP)
#4 Galaxy Patch had an outstanding season last term, culminating in back-to-back G3 Handicap wins. He kicks off this campaign with his sights set on December’s Hong Kong Mile and looks well-positioned to start with a victory. #8 Chancheng Glory benefits from carrying a light weight under handicap conditions, and his tactical speed should see him settle in a handy on-pace position in a race that lacks early speed on paper. #5 Red Lion is another well-placed runner under handicap conditions. While others may still be building fitness for bigger targets later in the season, this is the type of race in which he can figure. #6 Straight Arron makes his first appearance under trainer Ricky Yiu. While he will be looking for more ground, he may be one to spring an upset fresh.

Race 8 - ROWING AND TABLE TENNIS 1400M HANDICAP
#7 Jubilant Winner appears ready to win. He will be well-fancied with Zac Purton taking over after a first-up third and a handy trial in between runs. The rise to 1400m should suit. #2 Sunny Da Best showed promise last season in five starts, though he ended on a low note and was spelled afterward. His trials suggest he's ready to get back on track. #11 Team Happy won easily two starts ago but couldn’t repeat that second-up due to a hot pace. A softer early run should see him bounce back. #1 Stellar Swift produced a career-best effort first-up, charging home for a fast-finishing second. Hugh Bowman takes the reins this time.

Race 9 - TAEKWONDO 1400M HANDICAP
#5 Lucy In The Sky is tough to oppose from barrier 3. He was a game runner-up to up-and-comer Wunderbar first-up and has been highly consistent, recording two wins and four seconds from seven starts. #2 Young Achiever makes his seasonal return after showing promising form last term for the Jamie Richards stable, highlighted by his first local victory in his most recent race. He is one to follow as he progresses further into his campaign. #3 Beauty Crescent has yet to win in 19 Hong Kong starts but has placed behind some top-tier runners recently. With luck from his wide draw, he can figure. #6 Silo is showing steady improvement with more local experience, and his last-start effort pressing the lead was commendable.

Race 10 - ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS AND TRIATHLON 1200M HANDICAP
#6 Wunderbar made a striking return from injury, leading throughout to secure a first-up win in Class 3 carrying top weight. He is a rising talent and looks capable of winning again, especially as he will step away from barrier 1. #13 Wonderstar debuts for leading trainer Pierre Ng. The former Macau galloper has caught the eye in his trials and seems to have what it takes to measure up here. #7 Call Me Glorious needed his first-up run over an unsuitably short 1000m but still managed a close fourth. He should be much more effective stepping up to 1200m second-up. #8 Gorgeous Win resumed impressively, securing an effortless victory in Class 3 under top weight, and he has trialled well since. He appears to be a horse yet to reach his full potential.