2.24-26 (CD): Derby Future (Pool 3); Oaks Future (Lone Pool)

[Dunbar]

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER ~ POOL 3

1. Always Dreaming* 50-1
2. American Anthem 15-1
3. Battalion Runner 20-1
4. Classic Empire 8-1
5. El Areeb 20-1
6. Epicharis (Jpn)* 30-1

7. Gormley 15-1
8. Guest Suite (g) 50-1
9. Gunnevera 20-1
10. Iliad* (r) 15-1
11. Irish War Cry 12-1
12. Local Hero* 50-1

13. Malagacy 30-1
14. Mastery 10-1
15. McCraken 8-1
16. Mo Town 15-1
17. One Liner* 15-1
18. Petrov 30-1

19. Practical Joke 20-1
20. Royal Mo* 15-1
21. State of Honor 50-1
22. Tapwrit* 20-1
23. Wild Shot 50-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 4-1

Asterisks are for the 7 newbies, led by Iliad, One Liner, and Royal Mo, all at 15-1.

[Dunbar]

KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGER ~ LONE POOL

1. Abel Tasman 10-1
2. Champagne Room 20-1
3. Chanel’s Legacy 50-1
4. Daddys Lil Darling 50-1
5. Delphinia 30-1
6. Elate 30-1

7. Farrell 15-1
8. Ghalia 30-1
9. It Tiz Well 12-1
10. Jenda’s Agenda 30-1
11. Lockdown 30-1
12. Miss Sky Warrior 30-1

13. Mopotism 20-1
14. My Sweet Stella 50-1
15. Nonna Bella 50-1
16. Noted and Quoted 50-1
17. Pretty City Dancer 20-1
18. Selcourt 30-1

19. Shane’s Girlfriend 15-1
20. Tapa Tapa Tapa 30-1
21. Tequilita 50-1
22. Unique Bella 8-5
23. Valadorna 12-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 8-1

[Dunbar]

Odds going into last day...with $136K in win pool.

Horse, ML, SunMornOdds
1. Always Dreaming* 50-1, 38-1
2. American Anthem 15-1, 16-1
3. Battalion Runner 20-1, 52-1
4. Classic Empire 8-1, 8-1
5. El Areeb 20-1, 18-1
6. Epicharis (Jpn)* 30-1, 46-1

7. Gormley 15-1, 16-1
8. Guest Suite (g) 50-1, 61-1
9. Gunnevera 20-1, 19-1
10. Iliad* (r) 15-1, 33-1
11. Irish War Cry 12-1, 7-1
12. Local Hero* 50-1, 54-1

13. Malagacy 30-1, 46-1
14. Mastery 10-1, 7-1
15. McCraken 8-1, 5-1
16. Mo Town 15-1, 16-1
17. One Liner* 15-1, 14-1
18. Petrov 30-1, 82-1

19. Practical Joke 20-1, 22-1
20. Royal Mo* 15-1, 36-1
21. State of Honor 50-1, 230-1
22. Tapwrit* 20-1, 24-1
23. Wild Shot 50-1, 156-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 4-1, 7-1

[cakes44]

Classic Empire at single digits? Is this class that bad? Only one I'd want out of these is One Liner.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Odds going into last day...with $136K in win pool.

1. Always Dreaming* 50-1, 38-1
2. American Anthem 15-1, 16-1
3. Battalion Runner 20-1, 52-1
4. Classic Empire 8-1, 8-1
5. El Areeb 20-1, 18-1
6. Epicharis (Jpn)* 30-1, 46-1

7. Gormley 15-1, 16-1
8. Guest Suite (g) 50-1, 61-1
9. Gunnevera 20-1, 19-1
10. Iliad* (r) 15-1, 33-1
11. Irish War Cry 12-1, 7-1
12. Local Hero* 50-1, 54-1

13. Malagacy 30-1, 46-1
14. Mastery 10-1, 7-1
15. McCraken 8-1, 5-1
16. Mo Town 15-1, 16-1
17. One Liner* 15-1, 14-1
18. Petrov 30-1, 82-1

19. Practical Joke 20-1, 22-1
20. Royal Mo* 15-1, 36-1
21. State of Honor 50-1, 230-1
22. Tapwrit* 20-1, 24-1
23. Wild Shot 50-1, 156-1
24. Mutuel Field/All Others 4-1, 7-1

CLOSES 6PM: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3

[Kasept]

OAKS CLOSES 6:30: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...ager/oaks-pool

[Kasept]

CLOSING KDFW ODDS

Always Dreaming 50/1 40
American Anthem 15/1 16
Battalion Runner 20/1 35
Classic Empire 8/1 11
El Areeb 20/1 20
Epicharis (JPN) 30/1 40

Gormley 15/1 18
Guest Suite 50/1 60
Gunnevera 20/1 21
Iliad 15/1 24
Irish War Cry 12/1 7
Local Hero 50/1 70

Malagacy 30/1 50
Mastery 10/1 8
McCraken 8/1 6
Mo Town 15/1 25
One Liner 15/1 12
Petrov 30/1 70

Practical Joke 20/1 19
Royal Mo 15/1 35
State of Honor 50/1 99
Tapwrit 20/1 22
Wild Shot 50/1 99
A/Other 3yo's 4/1 5

[Dunbar]

KDFW Pool 3 Will-Pays:

1 Always Dreaming* 42-1 $86.40
2 American Anthem 16-1 $34.60
3 Battalion Runner 34-1 $70.60
4 Classic Empire 11-1 $24.40
5 El Areeb 20-1 $42.40
6 Epicharis (Jpn)* 41-1 $84.80
7 Gormley 18-1 $39.00
8 Guest Suite (g) 60-1 $123.40
9 Gunnevera 22-1 $46.00
10 Iliad* (r) 24-1 $51.40
11 Irish War Cry 7-1 $16.80
12 Local Hero* 72-1 $147.80
13 Malagacy 53-1 $109.20
14 Mastery 8-1 $18.40
15 McCraken 6-1 $15.60
16 Mo Town 27-1 $57.20
17 One Liner* 12-1 $26.60
18 Petrov 73-1 $148.80
19 Practical Joke 19-1 $40.40
20 Royal Mo* 36-1 $74.00
21 State of Honor 198-1 $399.40
22 Tapwrit* 22-1 $46.40
23 Wild Shot 120-1 $242.80
24 All Others 5-1 $12.40

from: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...l-Pays_._2.pdf

[ateamstupid]

El Areeb seems far and away the best value at 20-1. Whether or not you particularly like him in the Derby (I personally think he's legit), the 3YO competition in New York is such that two more blowout wins in the Gotham and the Wood are a reasonable possibility. If that happens, he'll be 6-1 tops in the Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

El Areeb seems far and away the best value at 20-1. Whether or not you particularly like him in the Derby (I personally think he's legit), the 3YO competition in New York is such that two more blowout wins in the Gotham and the Wood are a reasonable possibility. If that happens, he'll be 6-1 tops in the Derby.

First of all, he likely be higher than 6:1, but even if he is, if he's 1:2 in the Gotham and even money in the Wood ( unlikely but I'll give it to you ), he's less than 5% to win the Derby.....or 20:1. An awful lot of "ifs" to get there.

I get it, they're all bad value, but his is not special. My guess is he's about 25% at best to win both the Gotham and Wood, and then about 12:1 in the Derby...which makes him about 50:1 to win the Derby....and that's in a best case scenario.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, he likely be higher than 6:1, but even if he is, if he's 1:2 in the Gotham and even money in the Wood ( unlikely but I'll give it to you ), he's less than 5% to win the Derby.....or 20:1. An awful lot of "ifs" to get there.

I get it, they're all bad value, but his is not special. My guess is he's about 25% at best to win both the Gotham and Wood, and then about 12:1 in the Derby...which makes him about 50:1 to win the Derby....and that's in a best case scenario.

I completely disagree with your assessment.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I completely disagree with your assessment.

OK, can you do the math for me to defend your side?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, can you do the math for me to defend your side?

You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.

I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.

I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.

Without actually doing the math, this "opinion" can't really be defended. It's really a math equation...and nothing else.

The odds of him winning both the remaining NY preps "easily" enough for him to be 6:1, or 14%, in the Derby are VERY high. High enough, in fact, that 50:1 is likely an underlay. Even an optimistic 50% in the Gotham and 30% in the Wood, and those are very optimistic, make him 50:1 in the Derby. Those are not the chances of him winning the preps, they are the chances of him winning them impressively enough for him to be a so far decidedly unrealistic 6:1 in the Derby.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even an optimistic 50% in the Gotham and 30% in the Wood, and those are very optimistic, make him 50:1 in the Derby. Those are not the chances of him winning the preps, they are the chances of him winning them impressively enough for him to be a so far decidedly unrealistic 6:1 in the Derby.

Stop it. This is all speculation and estimation on your part, just like it is for me. Your 50-1 number for the Derby is totally arbitrary and I reject it. I think he has a good chance to be 6-1 in the Derby and I don't see a reasonable scenario where he's more than 20-1. I could obviously be wrong, but that's the downside of having an opinion. But I look forward to you scribbling math equations on a chalkboard on Talking Horses going forward instead of the current method of roughly discussing and entertaining competing opinions.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stop it. This is all speculation and estimation on your part, just like it is for me. Your 50-1 number for the Derby is totally arbitrary and I reject it. I think he has a good chance to be 6-1 in the Derby and I don't see a reasonable scenario where he's more than 20-1. I could obviously be wrong, but that's the downside of having an opinion. But I look forward to you scribbling math equations on a chalkboard on Talking Horses going forward instead of the current method of roughly discussing and entertaining competing opinions.

I am giving you numbers, while you are saying there is a "good chance," yet you are saying my thoughts are arbitrary.

This is actually a good discussion. You can't say you think some odds, any odds, are reasonable, without at least thinking it through mathematically.

Stop it? Seriously? That's a response to a contrary side to an argument? Then you make the Talking Horses comment? You're much better than this.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way.....there is a flaw in my argument that gives you a little more leeway.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am giving you numbers, while you are saying there is a "good chance," yet you are saying my thoughts are arbitrary.

This is actually a good discussion. You can't say you think some odds, any odds, are reasonable, without at least thinking it through mathematically.

Stop it? Seriously? That's a response to a contrary side to an argument?

Handicapping horses is not empirical math. You know this. You're being purposefully pedantic. It's about finding your estimation of relative value in a certain pool. If there were a parlay Gotham/Wood/Derby bet, you may be right that that would be better value than the future bet. But relative to the other future propositions, I think El Areeb is good value.

[Alabama Stakes]

Can you give an example of where he was purposefully pedantic ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Handicapping horses is not empirical math. You know this. You're being purposefully pedantic. It's about finding your estimation of relative value in a certain pool. If there were a parlay Gotham/Wood/Derby bet, you may be right that that would be better value than the future bet. But relative to the other future propositions, I think El Areeb is good value.

Understanding whether or not 20:1 in the future pool is a fair price, is, in fact, math.

Stop telling me what I am being. It's silly.