12/2: Aqueduct ($50k C/O); Hollywood ($249k P6-$30k Hi-5 C/O's)

Kasept · #1 12-02-2009, 06:57 AM

Thanksgiving Holiday racing was especially fun with a number of important Derby Trail foreshadowing performances (Super Saver, Maximus Ruler, Buddy's Saint); career-enders (Ventura, Einstein, Flashing); a possible Championship decider (Kodiak Kowboy) and lucrative big prices (T.D. Vance, Rahystrada). Hope you did well and enjoyed the coverage!

Race week and December starts with carryovers galore including $50k (P6) at Aqueduct to coincide with the Inner Meet Opener, $249k (P6) and $30k (Super High Five 8th) at Hollywood...

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pleasant Sister 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Amelia the Cat 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Siren's Call 1-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Southern Princess 8-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Early Response 4-1 7th
Most Likely: #2 Woodacre 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Moose Man 9-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Papa Charlie 12-1 8th

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

NOTE: OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #2b Embrace Change 15-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Dreamnote 10-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Frontal Stride 12-1 3rd

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Not a Peep 7-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Submerge 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Citifesta 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Way to Karakorum 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $12.80
$2 Trifecta (3-8-1) Paid $32.75
$1 Superfecta (3-8-1-7) Paid $182.70

8th: The Tate, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Super tricky little overnight here with top ML pair looking alternately run-off dominant or speed duel vulnerable. Likely a make or break stop on the P6 line..

Most Likely: #7 Bold Union 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Powder Princess 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Boodles 7-2 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bon Marie 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Midwatch 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Maddy's Crowd 7-2
Super Add: #6 White Holiday 12-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-7-8
5: 2-4
6: 2
7: 3-8
8: 1-7
9: 1-5

3x2x1x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 P6 Conso (5 of 6) Paid $14.00 x 2 = $28.00

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 3-8
8: 1-2-5-6-7
9: 1-5-6-7-10

1x2x5x5 = $50 $1 P4 Paid $21.60

HOLLYWOOD

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 No More Travelin' 2-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Yankee Romance 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sweet Hanni 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Almy Road 15-1 4th

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $6.60
$1 Trifecta (1-8-5) Paid $17.40
$1 Superfecta (1-8-5-2) Paid $125.20

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Red Door Drive 5-2 WON
Next Best: #4 Halo's Law 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Candy for Paseana 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Hold Fast 3-1 4th

5th: Cal-bred OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lady Alex 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Blame the Wine 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Suziqcutie 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Perfect Magic 20-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 My Man Sumo 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Paddy's Magic 4-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Devil Cat M D 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Point Attended 8-1 2nd

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bestdressed 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Star Nicholas 3-1 4th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

$30k Super High 5 Carryover..

Best Value: #2 Anundeniablyhappy 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Bubbly Blonde 5-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Our Anastacia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Global Inspiration 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Champagne Snob 20-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 1-8
4: 1-4
5: 1-5
6: 2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-2
8: 2

2x2x2x5x2x1 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5
6: 2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-2-5/SCR
8: 2-7

2x5x3x2 = $60

Good luck!
Steve

docicu3 · #2 12-02-2009, 07:49 AM

Steve

The 6th initially scheduled for the grass will now be run on the main track at a mile. The NYRA website updated a few minutes ago and listed the 6th as the only off the turf race of the day.

Was there a weather change over night in New York?

Gander · #3 12-02-2009, 07:54 AM

I like Persian Ruler a lot in the 3rd and going to try and beat the favored Bold Union in the 8th, using the 1 and the 6 equally.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 12-02-2009, 08:33 AM

Steve, I love 1,6 in the 8th... Looks like it has to be a total meltdown, I will take the 2 best jocks on what appear to be the 2 who can rate/close.
Im going to play some heavy pick 3's and use 1,6 equally in the back end.

Gander · #5 12-02-2009, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Steve, I love 1,6 in the 8th... Looks like it has to be a total meltdown, I will take the 2 best jocks on what appear to be the 2 who can rate/close.
Im going to play some heavy pick 3's and use 1,6 equally in the back end.

Those are the two I like as well. I'll probably bet the Hills horse to win a bit because I feel she will be overlooked even with Ramon riding. But my biggest bet will be in the 3rd on the 2.

gales0678 · #6 12-02-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Those are the two I like as well. I'll probably bet the Hills horse to win a bit because I feel she will be overlooked even with Ramon riding. But my biggest bet will be in the 3rd on the 2.

mike luzzi and grusmark?

Gander · #7 12-02-2009, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

mike luzzi and grusmark?

This horse is just better than these on a dry track.
Must avoid a duel with the womanizer and if he does that, should cruise.

NTamm1215 · #8 12-02-2009, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

This horse is just better than these on a dry track.
Must avoid a duel with the womanizer and if he does that, should cruise.

I think the horse has a chance, but what makes you think he's better on a dry track?

I find the race mostly uninteresting because you're basically guessing on who will rebound the most from their terrible effort in the Sleepy Hollow. It's definitely the type of race where you should try to find someone clever but I think it's a bit much to say he's just better than the rest on a dry track.

NT

Gander · #9 12-02-2009, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think the horse has a chance, but what makes you think he's better on a dry track?

I find the race mostly uninteresting because you're basically guessing on who will rebound the most from their terrible effort in the Sleepy Hollow. It's definitely the type of race where you should try to find someone clever but I think it's a bit much to say he's just better than the rest on a dry track.

NT

His maiden win was awesome and he chased Iboyee (a very nice horse) twice, the second time having all sorts of trouble. He never took hold of the slop in his last, but to you're point, neither did the others in here (3,4,5).
I like horses coimng in from FL because the figures are never inflated (like they are sometimes here) and you almsot always get value. What kind of price do you think he'll be? I hope 6/1?

Kasept · #10 12-02-2009, 10:26 AM

AQU SCR/CHG's:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

4TH

5 Mia's Blaze Early

5TH

1 (poe) Lofty Banner Early

6TH

1 You de Best Early OFF TURF / NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA
1A Windy Jo Early
2 (poe) Discreet Fling Early
4 Victorious Song Early
7 Beautiful Pear Early
8 Foofs Melody Early
9 Strategic Missile Early
10 Holy Moly Early
12 Royal Rhetoric Early
13 Precious Penny Early
14 Glory in Motion Early

8TH

3 Seminole Lass Early NO SUPERFECTA
4 Smokin Pistol Early
8 Magic Roberta Early
9 Yes She's a Lady Early

9TH

4 Black Hawk Soaring Early
9 Fourth Chapter Early
12 Safe Landing Early
14 Tiger D. R. Early
15 Chernobyl's Hero Early
16 Indymine Early