3/2 (GP): FOY (G2), Palm Beach, Very One, Bride, CDN, T-SPR, Fox (G3's)

Kasept · #1 02-27-2019, 05:47 PM

knickslions2 · #2 02-28-2019, 10:49 AM

Nice post for Vekoma. Looking for a big race from him!!

Alabama Stakes · #3 02-28-2019, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Nice post for Vekoma. Looking for a big race from him!!

Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.

blackthroatedwind · #4 02-28-2019, 01:12 PM

I wonder how people that took 23:1 on Global Campaign in the Derby future pool feel about him likely being north of 10:1 in this race.

Pretty funny when you think about it.

RHT2004 · #5 02-28-2019, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.

Hate to say it, I'm not a fan either.

moses · #6 02-28-2019, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.

There are probably some flaws in my thinking but he starts well, has early speed and finishes well, has been wide on the turn for both his races but still finishes well, has beaten Network Effect, Call Paul, Epic Dreamer, and Mihos (maybe no elite horses but each pretty good), thought his Nashua win was one of the more impressive wins of the 2YOs last year, has done this all without lasix (which is now added), like the pedigree a bit with Candy Ride as the sire and Speightstown as the damsire.

All that said, I’m really just dying to see him run again. I think what he’s done so far is a really nice foundation to build from but need to see him continue to impress.

knickslions2 · #7 02-28-2019, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Could you elaborate a little on why ? I know you and Moses are high on this hoss.
He seems to have bad action. He is seldom running straight. To me these guys rarely go forward as 3 year olds. I can’t see him even hitting the board.
Though in anothertwistafate I like the deuce Epic Dreamer to wire the field. Vekoma did beat him breaking his maiden, but I think with the Holy Bull under his belt, he can keep going. The Hough guy is interesting also.

This should strengthen your opinion on Vekoma if anything.

His speed figures were very good as a two year old and Im sure got some of the kinks worked out. Horse is training well and has that Candy Ride appeal. Those races he won were against nice horses. Horses that have won races against some of the derby contenders. Of course its always a mystery for the first race at 3 but I think this one has a lot of positives. I think the favorite is more of a mystery here. As for the future bets I thought he was one of the few good values in the pool.

moses · #8 02-28-2019, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

His speed figures were very good as a two year old and Im sure got some of the kinks worked out. Horse is training well and has that Candy Ride appeal. Those races he won were against nice horses. Horses that have won races against some of the derby contenders. Of course its always a mystery for the first race at 3 but I think this one has a lot of positives. I think the favorite is more of a mystery here. As for the future bets I thought he was one of the few good values in the pool.

That reminds me. One more reason:

I’ve got a futures wager on him at 35-1. I didn’t double down in Pool 2 but figured I’ll see what he does in the FOY and maybe put more money on him if his odds still look nice in pool 3. I don’t see anything moving people too far off some of these other horses. And they all run on the 9th during the Pool 3 window so recency bias will likely benefit Vekoma (if he does win the FOY) for Pool 3 value.

RHT2004 · #9 02-28-2019, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

His speed figures were very good as a two year old and Im sure got some of the kinks worked out. Horse is training well and has that Candy Ride appeal. Those races he won were against nice horses. Horses that have won races against some of the derby contenders. Of course its always a mystery for the first race at 3 but I think this one has a lot of positives. I think the favorite is more of a mystery here. As for the future bets I thought he was one of the few good values in the pool.

I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.

blackthroatedwind · #10 02-28-2019, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.

He's not. He's the second likeliest winner....regardless of where he finishes.

knickslions2 · #11 02-28-2019, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.

At least I got a good laugh today. Hes number 2 no matter how the race ends but I like him at 1.

moses · #12 02-28-2019, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think he's the 4th most likely winner Saturday.

I hope a lot of people think that.

RHT2004 · #13 02-28-2019, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's not. He's the second likeliest winner....regardless of where he finishes.

I respect it.

RHT2004 · #14 02-28-2019, 10:45 PM

Can I lock in that 7-2 on Chads horse in the 11th? Feels more like 7-5 to me.

blackthroatedwind · #15 03-01-2019, 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Can I lock in that 7-2 on Chads horse in the 11th? Feels more like 7-5 to me.

Another embarrassing ML.

moses · #16 03-01-2019, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Can I lock in that 7-2 on Chads horse in the 11th? Feels more like 7-5 to me.

And the horse listed above her at 3-1 doesn’t look very good (and also sees Castellano switch over to the Chad horse you’ve mentioned).

knickslions2 · #17 03-01-2019, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

And the horse listed above her at 3-1 doesn’t look very good (and also sees Castellano switch over to the Chad horse you’ve mentioned).

I like the Motts horse a lot here. Hopefully Brown and Pletcher horses get hammered at windows

RHT2004 · #18 03-01-2019, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I like the Motts horse a lot here. Hopefully Brown and Pletcher horses get hammered at windows

I'm a fan of her, she's not in the same world as the 1. Plus the draw only helps the 1 and hurts the 10. Unless you think she's winning with that JV 5 wide no cover special ride.

blackthroatedwind · #19 03-01-2019, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I'm a fan of her, she's not in the same world as the 1. Plus the draw only helps the 1 and hurts the 10. Unless you think she's winning with that JV 5 wide no cover special ride.

She somehow won with that ride last time. However, she is not beating Precieuse unless that one gets extremely unlucky.

moses · #20 03-01-2019, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I like the Motts horse a lot here. Hopefully Brown and Pletcher horses get hammered at windows

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I'm a fan of her, she's not in the same world as the 1. Plus the draw only helps the 1 and hurts the 10. Unless you think she's winning with that JV 5 wide no cover special ride.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She somehow won with that ride last time. However, she is not beating Precieuse unless that one gets extremely unlucky.

I like the Mott horse as well but have to agree. The horse I’m particularly interested in to beat the 1 is the 4 La Signare. Works show that she is in good shape and although there are a few early runners and she faded last time out, she probably needed a race under her belt since she hadn’t run since July.

Speaking of not running since July, that’s got to be the biggest concern with Chad’s horse. She’s run once in the last year and a half. Although obviously she fired off a long layoff in July and Chad has no problem prepping these horses.