3/27-29 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4

Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds

1. Albano, 50-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 30-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 6-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 5-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 12-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)

7. Chitu, 10-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 30-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 12-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)

13. Midnight Hawk, 20-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 15-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 20-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 20-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1

19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 30-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 50-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 8-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5

(f) – denotes field entry

[cakes44]

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

As always the final prices will differ considerably from the ML but to answer the question using the ML odds - Not many in my opinion.

There could be value in Bobby's Kitten. Other than that, if you think Tapiture, Strong Mandate or Ride On Curlin can win the Arkansas Derby they might offer some relative value.

Curious to see who people are most excited about with regard to who is left in "the field." I still think Commissioner and Tonalist are interesting.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by tywizard

As always the final prices will differ considerably from the ML but to answer the question using the ML odds - Not many in my opinion.

There could be value in Bobby's Kitten. Other than that, if you think Tapiture, Strong Mandate or Ride On Curlin can win the Arkansas Derby they might offer some relative value.

Curious to see who people are most excited about with regard to who is left in "the field." I still think Commissioner and Tonalist are interesting.

How much you looking to bet on BK?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

I'd bet Candy Boy at 12:1

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I'd bet Candy Boy at 12:1

Even if he won his next with a 107 BSF what is the lowest price he would be in the KD 5/1? Why not just a parlay...Prep-Derby

[pmayjr]

If you think Intense Holiday takes care of biz in the LA Derby, he won't be 20-1 in the KY Derby. Even if the future closes on him at 15-1, I think you get more value than you would betting him on Derby Day.

Also, Ring Weekend isn't that much of a fuke. 50-1? That's too good to at least not make a flyer on. 30-1 would even be ok for that

[freddymo]

I like Intense Holiday as well but hard to root for connections for me at least

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Even if he won his next with a 107 BSF what is the lowest price he would be in the KD 5/1? Why not just a parlay...Prep-Derby

I agree. He was the value in other pools, I have him 2x and said it back then. I think he will beat California Chrome in a week in a half, him and the Baffert who won at Oaklawn should put on a nice show.

[RockHardTen1985]

I still think Uncle Sigh could be value. If he wins the Wood he will be 15 or 20-1 and he will likely be over 50-1 when this pool closes. I have him at 73 and 42 though, so Ill sit chilly.

[Rudeboyelvis]

If I were to take any of these, I's say the greatest value is Constitution at 30-1.

[declansharbor]

While I hope I am proved wrong, this crop as a whole does nothing to excite me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If I were to take any of these, I's say the greatest value is Constitution at 30-1.

Ugh. He has not impressed me at all.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ugh. He has not impressed me at all.

Thank You

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

How much you looking to bet on BK?

None. Just answering the question that was asked. If he runs in and wins the Bluegrass you won't be able to get anything close to 30-1 in May. At least not in the win pool.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Thank You

What has he done that we don't see every year from one or more Pletcher horse at Gulfstream? One could argue he was not best or even second best in his allowance score.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What has he done that we don't see every year from one or more Pletcher horse at Gulfstream? One could argue he was not best or even second best in his allowance score.

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

[Conrad]

Constitution didn't make his debut until Jan 11th.
I would need way more than 30-1 in the Derby future to buck a 130+ yr old trend

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

I get it. You like him Saturday, so that makes him a value play at 30-1. I think Cairo Prince lays over this field. The only value I can hope for is that your horse gets bet in exotics and Prince is not as big a favorite in the pick 3 and pick 4 that he should be.

[bare it all]

I think General a Rod could be value if he stays at or floats up from 30-1. If Cairo Prince flops in the Fl Derby and this horse runs another good one, he could be a legit contender on Derby Day.