2/7-9 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 2)

[Dunbar]

Pool 2 is open, and it runs until 6pm on Sunday.

Live odds are at:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-2

KENTUCKY DERBY 146
FUTURE WAGER
MORNING LINE ODDS
1. Anneau d’Or 30-1
2. Authentic 15-1
3. Basin 30-1
4. Chance It 30-1
5. Dennis’ Moment 12-1
6. Enforceable 30-1
7. Exaulted 50-1
8. Gold Streeet 30-1
9. Governeur Morris 30-1
10. Honor A. P. 30-1
11. Independence Hall 10-1
12. Max Player 20-1
13. Maxfield 15-1
14. Nadal 12-1
15. Palm Springs 50-1
16. Premier Star 50-1
17. Silver State 50-1
18. Storm the Court 30-1
19. Structor 30-1
20. Thousand Words 15-1
21. Three Technique 50-1
22. Tiz the Law 8-1
23. Violent City 50-1
24. Mutuel Field 5/2

[moses]

Random but nowhere else to put this. I was looking at the Oaks/Derby double futures from last year. The ONLY combination where Serengeti Empress projected to pay less than Bellafina was the combo of Serengeti Empress/Country House. That’s really weird.

Just an example:

Bellafina/Serengeti Empress with Code of Honor (66.20 vs 309.00), Game Winner (17.60 vs 47.40), War of Will (51.00 vs 106.80) Country House (380.50 vs 327.60).

[Dunbar]

Churchill ran this futures pool more smoothly than the last few years, when odds were only updating every 15-20 minutes at times. They still screwed up after the pool closed by not updating the win pool amounts. The final odds were correct, but the amounts bet on each entry were incorrect for at least 44 minutes after the pools closed. (6:44 was the last time I looked until this morning, when I found that the amounts bet had indeed changed.)

Note another error in the table below. It lists "All Other 3-Year-Old Males", but it should be just "All Other 3-Year Olds".

Here are the final win odds: (a better formatted version of the table is at: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...dds-Pool-2.pdf )

Program Horse Name ODDS Gross Win Pool Final $ Odds $2 Payoff
1 ANNEAU D'OR 28 12,486.00 28.00 $ 58.00
2 AUTHENTIC 15 22,484.00 15.10 $ 32.20
3 BASIN 39 8,884.50 39.80 $ 81.60
4 CHANCE IT 39 8,942.25 39.50 $ 81.00
5 DENNIS' MOMENT 10 30,238.00 10.90 $ 23.80
6 ENFORCEABLE 29 11,998.25 29.20 $ 60.40
7 EXAULTED 99 3,216.50 111.70 $ 225.40
8 GOLD STREEET 54 6,519.25 54.60 $ 111.20
9 GOVERNEUR MORRIS 32 10,745.25 32.70 $ 67.40
10 HONOR A P 24 14,043.00 24.80 $ 51.60
11 INDEPENDENCE HALL 19 17,293.00 19.90 $ 41.80
12 MAX PLAYER 49 7,181.25 49.50 $ 101.00
13 MAXFIELD 13 25,025.50 13.40 $ 28.80
14 NADAL 8 38,062.50 8.50 $ 19.00
15 PALM SPRINGS 98 3,644.25 98.50 $ 199.00
16 PREMIER STAR 99 2,124.50 169.70 $ 341.40
17 SILVER STATE 50 6,985.75 50.90 $ 103.80
18 STORM THE COURT 30 11,453.25 30.60 $ 63.20
19 STRUCTOR 28 12,420.25 28.20 $ 58.40
20 THOUSAND WORDS 16 20,247.25 16.90 $ 35.80
21 THREE TECHNIQUE 36 9,552.25 36.90 $ 75.80
22 TIZ THE LAW 8 36,781.75 8.80 $ 19.60
23 VIOLENT CITY 99 2,473.00 145.60 $ 293.20
24 All Other 3-Year-Old Males 2 116,892.50 2.10 $ 6.20
Final $ odds based on $1 payoffs
Pool Total: $ 439,694.00

The exacta will-pays table is at: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...-Probables.pdf

[cakes44]

Not sure how/why anyone would put a dollar on Storm the Court after actually getting to watch his 3YO debut. He was dreadful IMO.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Not sure how/why anyone would put a dollar on Storm the Court after actually getting to watch his 3YO debut. He was dreadful IMO.

Didn’t that race run after the Futures Pool closed?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by moses

Didn’t that race run after the Futures Pool closed?

Ooh, quite possible.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Churchill ran this futures pool more smoothly than the last few years, when odds were only updating every 15-20 minutes at times. They still screwed up after the pool closed by not updating the win pool amounts. The final odds were correct, but the amounts bet on each entry were incorrect for at least 44 minutes after the pools closed. (6:44 was the last time I looked until this morning, when I found that the amounts bet had indeed changed.)

Note another error in the table below. It lists "All Other 3-Year-Old Males", but it should be just "All Other 3-Year Olds".

Here are the final win odds: (a better formatted version of the table is at: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...dds-Pool-2.pdf )

Program Horse Name ODDS Gross Win Pool Final $ Odds $2 Payoff
1 ANNEAU D'OR 28 12,486.00 28.00 $ 58.00
2 AUTHENTIC 15 22,484.00 15.10 $ 32.20
3 BASIN 39 8,884.50 39.80 $ 81.60
4 CHANCE IT 39 8,942.25 39.50 $ 81.00
5 DENNIS' MOMENT 10 30,238.00 10.90 $ 23.80
6 ENFORCEABLE 29 11,998.25 29.20 $ 60.40
7 EXAULTED 99 3,216.50 111.70 $ 225.40
8 GOLD STREEET 54 6,519.25 54.60 $ 111.20
9 GOVERNEUR MORRIS 32 10,745.25 32.70 $ 67.40
10 HONOR A P 24 14,043.00 24.80 $ 51.60
11 INDEPENDENCE HALL 19 17,293.00 19.90 $ 41.80
12 MAX PLAYER 49 7,181.25 49.50 $ 101.00
13 MAXFIELD 13 25,025.50 13.40 $ 28.80
14 NADAL 8 38,062.50 8.50 $ 19.00
15 PALM SPRINGS 98 3,644.25 98.50 $ 199.00
16 PREMIER STAR 99 2,124.50 169.70 $ 341.40
17 SILVER STATE 50 6,985.75 50.90 $ 103.80
18 STORM THE COURT 30 11,453.25 30.60 $ 63.20
19 STRUCTOR 28 12,420.25 28.20 $ 58.40
20 THOUSAND WORDS 16 20,247.25 16.90 $ 35.80
21 THREE TECHNIQUE 36 9,552.25 36.90 $ 75.80
22 TIZ THE LAW 8 36,781.75 8.80 $ 19.60
23 VIOLENT CITY 99 2,473.00 145.60 $ 293.20
24 All Other 3-Year-Old Males 2 116,892.50 2.10 $ 6.20
Final $ odds based on $1 payoffs
Pool Total: $ 439,694.00

The exacta will-pays table is at: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...-Probables.pdf

I noticed those discrepancies as well. I wish they had added some better horses to the pool. I feel like Blackberry Wine or Digital or Mr. Monomoy would have attracted more money than Violent City, Palm Springs, or Premier Star and possibly created some better value.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Ooh, quite possible.

Just checked. The pool closed at 6:00. That race went off at 6:32.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

I noticed those discrepancies as well. I wish they had added some better horses to the pool. I feel like Blackberry Wine or Digital or Mr. Monomoy would have attracted more money than Violent City, Palm Springs, or Premier Star and possibly created some better value.

I was interested in the "All Others" numbers. The final odds were "2-1", but that could be anything from 2.0-1 to 2.4-1. The pool numbers at 6:44pm indicated it was 2.4-1. I was disappointed to wake up and find out I'd only gotten 2.1-1.

They must have had the correct final pool amounts in hand, otherwise they wouldn't have had the right odds for the individually listed horses.

Comparing this morning's numbers to the pool amounts showing at 6:44pm, there's this interesting result: Of the last $18,981 that was bet into the win pool, $15,071 was bet on "All Others"!

[Dunbar]

Steve, those are not the closing prices showing on the kentuckyderby.com website. For example, the website shows "All Others" closed at 2-1, not 9-5. Nadal closed at 8-1, not 11-1.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...dds-Pool-2.pdf

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Steve, those are not the closing prices showing on the kentuckyderby.com website. For example, the website shows "All Others" closed at 2-1, not 9-5. Nadal closed at 8-1, not 11-1.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...dds-Pool-2.pdf

THX. Jon White wrote me as well that they were off a little. Will adjust them...

[Kasept]

IN ORDER BY CLOSING PRICE

24. Mutuel Field 5/2 (2-1)

14. Nadal 12-1 (8.50-1)
22. Tiz the Law 8-1 (8.80-1)
5. Dennis’ Moment 12-1 (10-1)

13. Maxfield 15-1 (13-1)
2. Authentic 15-1 (15-1)
20. Thousand Words 15-1 (16-1)
11. Independence Hall 10-1 (16-1)

10 Honor A. P. 30-1 (24-1)
19. Structor 30-1 (28-1)
1. Anneau d’Or 30-1 (28-1)
6. Enforceable 30-1 (29-1)

18. Storm the Court 30-1 (30-1)
9. Governeur Morris 30-1 (32-1)
21. Three Technique 50-1 (36-1)
4. Chance It 30-1 (39-1)
3. Basin 30-1 (39-1)

12. Max Player 20-1 (49-1)
17. Silver State 50-1 (50-1)
8. Gold Streeet 30-1 (54-1)

15. Palm Springs 50-1 (98-1)
7. Exaulted 50-1 (111-1)
23. Violent City 50-1 (145-1)
16. Premier Star 50-1 (169-1)