Preakness future wager

[southerndutch]

Does anybody have the final odds for the Preakness future wager?

[knickslions2]

Preakness Future Wager

No. Horse ML Final odds
1 Agate Road 50-1 42-1
2 Book’em Danno 50-1 59-1
3 Born Noble 50-1 49-1
4 Catching Freedom 50-1 77-1
5 Change Of Command 60-1 99-1
6 Coach Prime 15-1 32-1
7 Common Defense 60-1 99-1
8 Conquest Warrior 40-1 34-1
9 Domestic Product 40-1 51-1
10 Dornoch 15-1 18-1

11 Drip 60-1 92-1
12 Endlessly 60-1 26-1
13 Epic Ride 60-1 99-1
14 Fierceness 25-1 29-1
15 Forever Young 40-1 33-1
16 Hades 50-1 54-1
17 Hall Of Fame 50-1 45-1
18 Honor Marie 30-1 73-1
19 Inveigled 50-1 99-1
20 Just A Touch 30-1 62-1

21 Knightsbridge 30-1 63-1
22 Liberal Arts 50-1 99-1
23 Locked 20-1 34-1
24 Maymun 10-1 20-1
25 Muth 20-1 19-1
26 Mystik Dan 40-1 30-1
27 Nash 50-1 99-1
28 No More Time 50-1 99-1
29 Nysos 4-1 5-2
30 Resilience 50-1 99-1

31 Sierra Leone 15-1 14-1
32 Snead 50-1 99-1
33 Speak Easy 50-1 46-1
34 Speedyness 50-1 99-1
35 Stronghold 50-1 99-1
36 Timberlake 20-1 23-1
37 Track Phantom 40-1 45-1
38 Tuscan Sky 50-1 76-1
39 Victory Avenue 50-1 71-1
40 All other 3-year-olds 6-1 5-1

[moses]

Who puts money into these pools?

Nysos very well may win the Preakness. He may even go off below 5/2 that day. But assuming the Derby winner is running back in the Preakness, I’d guess that Nysos will likely be around 5/2 on Preakness day, assuming he even runs in the race. The Derby winner will have plenty of money on him. Why put money on Nysos in February/March at those odds?

Unless anyone thinks he’ll be under 2/1? I just don’t see that if the Derby winner runs in the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

I guess it depends on the SA Derby, but Nysos likely will be under 2:1 but it's still a bad gamble, as there are a lot of ifs and a lot of time. However, I would bet him at 5:2 over Book Em Danno at 59:1 when he's probably a bigger price to even be in the race or 71:1 on Victory Avenue, a maiden who was scratched out of the FOY.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess it depends on the SA Derby, but Nysos likely will be under 2:1 but it's still a bad gamble, as there are a lot of ifs and a lot of time. However, I would bet him at 5:2 over Book Em Danno at 59:1 when he's probably a bigger price to even be in the race or 71:1 on Victory Avenue, a maiden who was scratched out of the FOY.

True.

I actually like that horse Victory Avenue a lot but wouldn’t put money on him for the Preakness. Most of these futures bets are terrible value. Even if you get lucky enough to pick the winner, the wager is made with so much missing information.

[greedyway]

Like other commenters in this thread, I could not understand why anyone would take low odds on a Field bet in a future pool.

However, looking at the Kentucky Derby Future pools since 1999, betting on the Field in each pool would have yielded an 85% return. There were 31 winning bets in the 95 possible bets over that period, returning $351.10 on $190.00 wagered, at $2.00 per bet.

There was a flat bet profit even in on Pool 1 Field bets, where the return was 45%.

So perhaps that answers why people are betting on the Field at low odds.

I’m still not interested in a low odds field bet when the average win bet for races in this period returned 18/1, but that’s just me.

My work is attached. Maybe there is a flaw in my approach or calculations, which I would be happy to hear about.

For purposes of this analysis, the first pool in any given year is considered Pool 1, and so on. There were three Pools from 1999 to 2013, four from 2014 to 2021, five in 2021 and 2022, and six in 2023. I have omitted Pool 6 in 2023.

The data - https://www.thedowneyprofile.com/der...ure-wager#2022 - presents Pool 1 in years 2013 and earlier with Pool 3 from 2014 and later, and so on.

And yes, it is small sample.