Scav's Only Play of the Weekend

[Scav]

I absolutely LOVE a sequence at Fairgrounds. I have strong opinions on MANY horses in these three races and looking forward to getting back what I have lost in the last two months on only playing TWO tickets.

Race 7: Muniz Turf

This race is all Frankel. His sheet numbers tower of this field except for the monster number that Einstein put up last out, and that was only 14 days ago and had to ship. He is an AUTOMATIC THROWOUT in my opinion as he is rushed into this race after what I am guessing is owner's disappointment. King's Drama is at least 2 lengths faster then anyone in this race and I thought it should set up perfectly for him

Race 8: Oaks

Three horses that I am tossing are Appealing Zophie, Total, and Mistical Plan. MP is along for the ride with Liquidity and isn't fast enough, Total is a PERFECT example of the 0-2=x theory, and it is even screaming more at you showing that she bore out last time, BOUNCE CITY. Appealing Zophie is strong but EVERY TIME she has ran the number she ran last, she reacted badly with a 5pt regression. Get Ready Bertie is moving forward the way you like seeing a horse moving forward and gets A HUGE positive jock switch with Prado. Octave is an auto use for me as Pletcher is red hot, spotted this race. She could be along for the ride with CQ but I doubt it. Obviously can't ignore.

Race 9: LA Derby

All Circular Quay here and here is why. I think you might get some value here with him with Liquidity, Stall's horse, Zanjero, and the other Pletcher. Watching that race I saw JV loaded for bear on the rail and looked like a horse that would have been in front after about 6 jumps if allowed to clear. Still got up for 5th place(this can be argued because their were tiring horses)Less traffic issues in this race, decent pace set up, and Pletcher

Race 7 $45 Pick three 9/3,4/1 $90 (hoping for a $40 per $1 payout)
Race 7 $10 Pick Three 3,7/3,4/1 $40 (hoping for $120 per $1 here)

$130 total

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Good luck man. King's Drama will be a play against for me like he has been for much of his US racing career. I think Sweet Return has a good shot at stealing it. In the LA Derby I think you are looking at zero value on CQ. He'll be the favorite and IMO around 8-5. I think the others have caught up talentwise with him and I just don't see enough pace to set up his rally. Also Gomez knows him better than anyone, so don't expect to see him let CQ get first jump on him.

cool, but CQ doesn't need first run....I should have clarified that CQ should have some value in the pick threes because I thnk people will go 3-4 deep in this race. I consider value because I think it is a one horse race

[blackthroatedwind]

If you win I will lose.

I am pitching King's Drama. I just don't really like him. Hendrix may well have beaten him last time if he had a clean trip. Einstein may be the best horse in the race, and while two weeks is fast, he is still very dangerous. With the relative lack of pace he should get good position. I will also use Sweet Return and Hendrix and possibly Naissance Royale though she is more likely to suck up for second or third.

Circular Quay? He can win but I will certainly use the second and third finishers from the Risen Star. Zanjero moved too soon and gets a good rider switch. Plus, while I don't think much of him, doesn't it concern you that Soaring By could be loose? It's not like he's exactly facing proven tigers here.

On another note....who does the FG morning line? It is positively hilariously bad. My personal favorites? Patriot Act at 5-1 and ( the best ) Cloudy's Knight at 5-1 ( with Naissance Royale at 12-1 ).

[Bigsmc]

Where's this option in the poll?:

D. I don't believe for a second this will be Scav's only bet of the weekend.

GL bro. I'll be rooting for you.

[Kasept]

Tom,

The Louisiana Derby doesn't look like a place to be singling to me. All but one have a legit chance to win, and the obvious lack of speed there makes the closers like Quay and Birdbird less appealling. I tend to agree with Andy that Soaring By, though giving away some experience versus these, is a huge threat on or close to the front end under the rider who milked Peace Rules around this oval 4 years ago. Liquidity is the other possible beneficiary of an uncertain pace scenario as he has shown the ability to adjust to the activity in front of him. And it looks like Ketchikan can stay in touch with any pace and is fastest coming in...

This is a remarkably well-matched group top to bottom.

[ddthetide]

i find this interesting because, a thread earlier this week, some on here were talking about Ketchikan being a monster and a walk over in this race. my question is, was Ketchikan over-rated in the previous thread?
i like Liquidity and not a fan of CQ.

[golfer]

After looking at the entries, this card reminds me of last Saturday at Gulf... All Pletcher, All the time? may be time to handicap Gulfstream.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Scav

Race 8: Oaks

Three horses that I am tossing are Appealing Zophie, Total, and Mistical Plan. MP is along for the ride with Liquidity and isn't fast enough, Total is a PERFECT example of the 0-2=x theory, and it is even screaming more at you showing that she bore out last time, BOUNCE CITY. Appealing Zophie is strong but EVERY TIME she has ran the number she ran last, she reacted badly with a 5pt regression. Get Ready Bertie is moving forward the way you like seeing a horse moving forward and gets A HUGE positive jock switch with Prado. Octave is an auto use for me as Pletcher is red hot, spotted this race. She could be along for the ride with CQ but I doubt it. Obviously can't ignore.

I like Total, but don't use the Thoroughgraphs so it's interesting to see your point of view. Like you, I think Octave is there for a reason.

Good luck on your tickets.

[ArlJim78]

Scav's as always I hope you're not totally fixed on this. Like Steve mentioned, tough race to single on, and at the end of the day CQ is still likely to be overbet. I would NOT make him a single.

[Pistol]

I like Slews Tizzy

[zippyneedsawin]

I'm as big a CQ fan as anyone here and I too will not be singling him in this race. Expecially considering the pace scenario Mr. Byk mentioned. Personally, I'm leaning toward using all except Slew's Tizzy and Birdie..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I'm as big a CQ fan as anyone here and I too will not be singling him in this race. Expecially considering the pace scenario Mr. Byk mentioned. Personally, I'm leaning toward using all except Slew's Tizzy and Birdie..

I feel like Rodney Dangerfield here.....I'm the one who mentioned the pace scenerio.

[docicu3]

Respect.......Andy!!!

The "littles" here love you dearly..... and from the floor burns on the collective knees of the masses which are second only to the dead presidents changing hands when you type here or do those mini spots for DRF with Doogie DRF.

We respect and are challenged by what you have to say......you make people think and examine their own assessments of the races at hand!!! Much to the benefit of us all.

Maybe Tony Bruno by resemblance but not Rodney as his humor has become a bit cold of late and yours is usually razor sharp.

DrD

ps

Is not Vance Hanson the guy at DRF who makes the line for FG so to speak as evidenced every day in DRF???? Like a referee in a sporting event your not noticed unless you screw up.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Respect.......Andy!!!

The "littles" here love you dearly..... and from the floor burns on the collective knees of the masses which are second only to the dead presidents changing hands when you type here or do those mini spots for DRF with Doogie DRF.

We respect and are challenged by what you have to say......you make people think and examine their own assessments of the races at hand!!! Much to the benefit of us all.

Maybe Tony Bruno by resemblance but not Rodney as his humor has become a bit cold of late and yours is usually razor sharp.

DrD

ps

Is not Vance Hanson the guy at DRF who makes the line for FG so to speak as evidenced every day in DRF???? Like a referee in a sporting event your not noticed unless you screw up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Allright, I feel better now. Thanks.

Whomever the linesmaker is I just questioned his lines in the spots I filmed earlier today with Dan ( I can't call him Doogie....plus he's a great guy ).

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Where's this option in the poll?:

D. I don't believe for a second this will be Scav's only bet of the weekend.

GL bro. I'll be rooting for you.

It actually is Mike, I am kinda busy this weekend and I really want to attack this sequence, and I want to play Fairgrounds (haven't played it at all this year) so I said "F it" I am going to unload on this sequence, run up to trackside and play the wager, go get the hair cut, spend some time to show the Envoy some tenderloving care, and hope to catch one....Going up to trackside with $130, leaving with $0, and then making the 2.4 mile trip back up there to collect my $1500

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,Scav, the most disappointing part of this is that you think C.Q. was gunna win his last race(if not shut off.) That is simply ****** -like judgement.

[blackthroatedwind]

I can't speak for anyone else here but I am just glad to hear about the haircut.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

It actually is Mike, I am kinda busy this weekend and I really want to attack this sequence, and I want to play Fairgrounds (haven't played it at all this year) so I said "F it" I am going to unload on this sequence, run up to trackside and play the wager, go get the hair cut, spend some time to show the Envoy some tenderloving care, and hope to catch one....Going up to trackside with $130, leaving with $0, and then making the 2.4 mile trip back up there to collect my $1500

Unfortunately I think your total mileage to trackside will only be 4.8 miles and not 9.6 miles.

Kings Drama two lengths better than the whole field? Come on now, how many open length winners in high end turf stakes do you find? Not many. This will be a heads and necks finish with multiple horses involved if you ask me.

And keying CQ? To me six horses have a somewhat reasonable chance in that race. Its deep.

[lemoncrush]

I keep changing my mind on the Fairgrounds sequence.
In the Turf, Sweet Return hasn't hit the board in back-to-back starts in well over 2 years. Einstein might be compromised by his post, and I don't know what to think about the Pletcher horse on the rail.
Naissace Royal might be a toss since she's facing the boys, but Gomez aboard makes her more interesting.
You would think the Drysdale gelding MacDuff isn't live here, as Gomez would have taken the mount if he was. King's Drama looks very tough, too.

In the Oaks, Octaive is going to have to prove me wrong, as I haven't been impressed with her yet. I'll take Zophie and Bertie in this one.

In the Derby, I'm taking CQ and Zanjero. I think the pace might be quicker than anticipated, and the long stretch can only help.