CD and the Preakness, interesting data

[somerfrost]

This was posted at The Homestretch...it refers twice to data found at Dr Roman's site (when it says, "can be found here). The main point is the relationship of the CD of contenders to that of the average Preakness winner. Again...for what it's worth. Comes up with the horses most of us would pick anyway!


Whirlaway

Registered User
Posts: 955
(5/7/07 1:53 pm)
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The Center of Distribution and the Preakness
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This research was fun, it always is. Interesting what the numbers may tell us here. First a quote that can be found
here.


" To illustrate the main point, among horses with a DI of exactly 3.00, those with at least 10 points in the Brilliant category of their DP have an average winning distance (AWD) of 7.88 furlongs. Those with less than 10 points in the Brilliant category have an AWD of 8.01 furlongs. Similarly, among horses with a DI of exactly 2.00, those with at least 10 points in the Brilliant category of their DP have an AWD of 8.25 furlongs. Those with less than 10 points in the Brilliant category have an AWD of 8.43 furlongs. Not surprisingly, a large component of inherited speed is an asset in shorter races. Although the average DI is the same for each respective group, we do see real differences in the average CD. The first group, those with DI 3.00 and at least ten Brilliant points in their DP, has an average CD of 0.89. The second group, with less than ten points in their DP, has an average CD of 0.81. Similarly, those with DI 2.00 and at least ten Brilliant points in their DP, have an average CD of 0.65 while those with less than ten points in their DP have an average CD of 0.56. The principle here is that the relationship between the DI and CD is the direct consequence of how the aptitudinal points are distributed within the DP. Furthermore, it confirms that the CD is a more accurate measure of relative distance potential than is the DI."


Of particular note is the last sentence. " Furthermore, it confirms that the CD is a more accurate measure of relative distance potential than is the DI." My focus here is on the CD. Now take a look at the DI and CD of possible Preakness contenders.

Name, DI, CD

CP West 2.00 0.61
Chelokee 3.57 1.06
Curlin 4.00 1.05
Flying First Class 4.00 1.10
Hard Spun 2.67 0.66
King of the Roxy 3.00 0.90
Sedgefield 3.00 0.91
Slew's Tizzy 2.00 0.67
Starbase 4.60 1.14
Street Sense 2.14 0.68
Teuflesberg 2.27 0.78
Xchanger 3.00 0.83

Look at the data found here paying particular attention to the CD of PIM, which is 0.71.
Based on the data only five horses fit the DI/CD frame. Of these five, three fit the CD frame. Of those five, four possess Dominant Classicity (*), indicating they should run beyond their numbers.

CP West 0.61 *
Hard Spun 0.66 *
Slew's Tizzy 0.67 *
Street Sense 0.68 *
Teuflesberg 0.78

Now I'm no Dosage expert, never will be. And as they say anything can happen in hoss' racin', but I sure got a good laugh out of this one. I thought Hard Spun was of some concern in the Derby, little did I know the exacta was looking right at me. Good job pamela. The data in this research tells me Hard Spun, Street Sense and Slew's Tizzy in the Preakness. It'll be interesting to see how they run on the track. That should be about it for me. The waiting is the hardest part ...

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Somer are you on Roman's payroll?

Folks have asked for some pre-Preakness pedigree stuff, this is one example of same using dosage computations to compare the pedigree of this year's horses to past winners. It ends up with what anyone with half a brain can figure...that Hard Spun and Street Sense appear the most likely winners so it's not of any great value aside from the fact that it involve a pedigree-based process. As far as I know, Dr Roman doesn't have a "payroll", you've made it clear that you don't care about such stuff and I'm fine with that...sadly, you appear unable to restrain yourself and must snipe at me whenever possible...hopefully that keeps you entertained. To be honest, I don't put much stock in this process, I limit use of dosage to the derby and some 2yo races but again, the issue was raised so I provided the post made by someone else on another site.

[Scurlogue Champ]

I don't think Slews Tizzy is running.

[Buffymommy]

Slew's Tizzy is going to the Lone Star Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Folks have asked for some pre-Preakness pedigree stuff, this is one example of same using dosage computations to compare the pedigree of this year's horses to past winners. It ends up with what anyone with half a brain can figure...that Hard Spun and Street Sense appear the most likely winners so it's not of any great value aside from the fact that it involve a pedigree-based process. As far as I know, Dr Roman doesn't have a "payroll", you've made it clear that you don't care about such stuff and I'm fine with that...sadly, you appear unable to restrain yourself and must snipe at me whenever possible...hopefully that keeps you entertained. To be honest, I don't put much stock in this process, I limit use of dosage to the derby and some 2yo races but again, the issue was raised so I provided the post made by someone else on another site.

Somer, I appreciate you posting this stuff. It's very interesting to me.

[Cajungator26]

Bernardini:
DI = 3.31 CD = 0.79

Afleet Alex:
DI = 2.11 CD = 0.71

Smarty Jones:
DI = 3.40 CD = 1.00

Funny Cide:
DI = 1.53 CD = 0.46

War Emblem:
DI = 3.40 CD = 0.95

Point Given:
DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00

Red Bullet:
DI = 1.96 CD = 0.35

Charismatic:
DI = 5.22 CD = 1.00

Real Quiet:
DI = 5.33 CD = 1.05

Silver Charm:
DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Louis Quatorze:
DI = 5.50 CD = 1.12

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I was trying to think of horses with really interesting dosage profiles, and two random ones came to mind: Unbridled and Risen Star. Both had points in all categories, I think, and a lot of points overall. I guess that Risen Star's sire was a chef-de-race, right?

Funny Cide has points in all categories as well (though not as many as Risen Star)... kind of cool.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I was trying to think of horses with really interesting dosage profiles, and two random ones came to mind: Unbridled and Risen Star. Both had points in all categories, I think, and a lot of points overall. I guess that Risen Star's sire was a chef-de-race, right?

Yeah, you could say Risen Star's daddy was OK...Risen Star was, in my opinion, very mishandled by his connections, their last minute jockey change and crazy instructions to Eddie D cost Star the Derby I'll always believe. He proved his class by dominating the Preakness and destroying the field in the Belmont (despite running on three good hooves). I honestly think Star could have been in a class with the very best if not for mishandling resulting in early retirement. Star's daddy was, of course, the great Secretariat, his mom, a graded stake winner in her own right, was Ribbon...daughter of the outstanding CDR His Majesty. Star's DP=12-15-27-4-2, DI=2.08, CD=0.52.
As you can tell, one of my favorites!

[philcski]

Churchill:
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/47/14...86fe4aff_m.jpg
http://www.kentuckyderby.info/images/infiel10.jpg

Pimlico:
http://www.cnn.com/NATURE/9905/04/tr...preakness1.jpg
http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f1...ilthsquad2.jpg
http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f1...r/infield2.jpg