Early thoughts on Belmont Saturday Card

golfer · #1 06-07-2007, 06:54 PM

It may be a bit early for some, but since I've been perusing the TG sheets, I'll throw out some early thoughts, very much subject to change.

First, a question. Why is Dove Houghton listed as trainer on all of Tony Dutrow's horses?

Race 2: Pletcher's Prom Party seems to be sitting on a BIG race.. and how this one runs may be very important to the entire day.

Race 5: 2 stand out to me, Shug's Criminologist, and Clement's Meribel.

Race 6: Bordonaro looks very strong, I like Joey P to hit the board at a price.

Race 7: Seems very evenly matched, which makes it tough to go with the favorite, Pletcher's Wait a While.

Race 8: This is my longshot special (for now), and you may think I'm crazy, but I like Hobbitontherocks.. figs are competitive, definitely was not hard used in last (other than swerving all over the track top of the stretch), should be pace to run at.. Sportstown's last makes him the fastest coming in.

Race 9: Dream Rush's last was head and shoulders better than any of these have ever run. Shug's Boca Grande should be set for a new top.

Race 10: Obviously, the question is what to do with English Channel (Kev?).. as the highweight, and off his 2 races this year, can't key him as probable favorite. Cosmonaut looks very solid, and don't leave out Steppenwolfer.. the trip he got in his last (1st turf) has been well documented here.

Race 11: Otherwise known as the Belmont Stakes...if Curlin doesn't back up here, he never will. Hard Spun, who I haven't liked in the Derby or Preakness, may be the choice in this.

Race 12: Does anybody care? another evenly matched field, Heavenly Anna (not to be confused with Dreamin of) looks interesting as a mid range price.

Race 13: Now I'm really pushing it, but this race is impossible, at first glance, anyway. Perhaps Stately Pegasus has finally found a field he can beat.

Comments please..

golfer · #2 06-07-2007, 07:07 PM

Thanks, Hoss, but why wouldn't Dick take over?

GPK · #3 06-07-2007, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

It may be a bit early for some, but since I've been perusing the TG sheets, I'll throw out some early thoughts, very much subject to change.

First, a question. Why is Dove Houghton listed as trainer on all of Tony Dutrow's horses?

Race 2: Pletcher's Prom Party seems to be sitting on a BIG race.. and how this one runs may be very important to the entire day.

Race 5: 2 stand out to me, Shug's Criminologist, and Clement's Meribel.

Race 6: Bordonaro looks very strong, I like Joey P to hit the board at a price.

Race 7: Seems very evenly matched, which makes it tough to go with the favorite, Pletcher's Wait a While.

Race 8: This is my longshot special (for now), and you may think I'm crazy, but I like Hobbitontherocks.. figs are competitive, definitely was not hard used in last (other than swerving all over the track top of the stretch), should be pace to run at.. Sportstown's last makes him the fastest coming in.

Race 9: Dream Rush's last was head and shoulders better than any of these have ever run. Shug's Boca Grande should be set for a new top.

Race 10: Obviously, the question is what to do with English Channel (Kev?).. as the highweight, and off his 2 races this year, can't key him as probable favorite. Cosmonaut looks very solid, and don't leave out Steppenwolfer.. the trip he got in his last (1st turf) has been well documented here.

Race 11: Otherwise known as the Belmont Stakes...if Curlin doesn't back up here, he never will. Hard Spun, who I haven't liked in the Derby or Preakness, may be the choice in this.

Race 12: Does anybody care? another evenly matched field, Heavenly Anna (not to be confused with Dreamin of) looks interesting as a mid range price.

Race 13: Now I'm really pushing it, but this race is impossible, at first glance, anyway. Perhaps Stately Pegasus has finally found a field he can beat.

Comments please..

ok Seth...my comment??

COSMONAUT????

golfer · #4 06-07-2007, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

ok Seth...my comment??

COSMONAUT????

Hey, Einstein's not running, so I can't lose any more $$ on him Saturday. Seriously, EC was brilliant LAST year, I know it's only 2 starts so far, but the Dubai performance was quite sub par.

GPK · #5 06-07-2007, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Hey, Einstein's not running, so I can't lose any more $$ on him Saturday. Seriously, EC was brilliant LAST year, I know it's only 2 starts so far, but the Dubai performance was quite sub par.

VERY sub par is more like it....but that was a different class of horses than he is facing this Saturday.

golfer · #6 06-07-2007, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

VERY sub par is more like it....but that was a different class of horses than he is facing this Saturday.

I understand that, but if he had run "his" race and still lost, that would be a different story. This coupled with the strange campaign he has had leaves me with major ????. As the favorite, giving weight, well you have to at least consider other options.

GPK · #7 06-07-2007, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

I understand that, but if he had run "his" race and still lost, that would be a different story. This coupled with the strange campaign he has had leaves me with major ????. As the favorite, giving weight, well you have to at least consider other options.

Not every horse takes to shipping half way around the world. It's quite a bit different than shipping from NY to FL.

golfer · #8 06-07-2007, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'll be betting against English Channel as well. He should be a big favorite and I can't take him. I definitely think Cosmonaut has a big shot in there. I am thinking about trying to fool around and use Minister's Joy for second and third because I think the odds will be there.

The reason I threw Steppenwolfer in there is that his dirt figs are very competitive, and his one turf fig, while slower than these, may have been compromised by the trip.

GPK · #9 06-07-2007, 07:35 PM

well...luck with Cosmonaut boys. Me personally, I don't see it.

GPK · #10 06-07-2007, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Really? He would have won the race at Pimlico by open lengths had he not had to jump over the horse that went down. Seems to be improving and wasn't that far off your favorite horse Cacique last year.

Other than your obsession who do you like in there?

I agree with you Jay...he would have won the Dixie...and beaten who, other than Einstein?

Outperformance??? Woodlander?? Dreadnaught??

Other than EC...

even without Shake the Bank, BTN still has a shot with Red Zipper entered. I also think Sky Conquerer rates a chance in here.

golfer · #11 06-07-2007, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I agree with you Jay...he would have won the Dixie...and beaten who, other than Einstein?

Outperformance??? Woodlander?? Dreadnaught??

Other than EC...

even without Shake the Bank, BTN still has a shot with Red Zipper entered. I also think Sky Conquerer rates a chance in here.

Sky Conqueror's last was ultra impressive, but he seems to move up big on wet/soft turf.

GPK · #12 06-07-2007, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Sky Conqueror's last was ultra impressive, but he seems to move up big on wet/soft turf.

He does move up on the wet...but he is capable on the firm footing as well.

GPK · #13 06-07-2007, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Fair enough. I have to let Better Talk Now beat me, I don't see Red Zipper helping him out much as Red Zipper just isn't that fast early. Sky Conqueror is intriguing. And I actually like Dreadnaught. No world beater but a decent horse.

Do you guys really like Steppenwolfer? I am having a hard time seeing him even in the super....

and I am with you on BTN....I will let him beat me...even though I do think it sets up fairly well for him.

golfer · #14 06-07-2007, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Do you guys really like Steppenwolfer? I am having a hard time seeing him even in the super....

and I am with you on BTN....I will let him beat me...even though I do think it sets up fairly well for him.

Steppenwolfer is a pure hunch at this point, as I said, competitive dirt figs, but only 1 turf race, his most recent. Could surprise, or run last.. the odds will determine if he is worth the risk.

GPK · #15 06-07-2007, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Steppenwolfer is a pure hunch at this point, as I said, competitive dirt figs, but only 1 turf race, his most recent. Could surprise, or run last.. the odds will determine if he is worth the risk.

Even his dirt figs seem a bit light to me. Never had a BSF over 98.

mclem10011 · #16 06-07-2007, 08:05 PM

Could be the Flashy Bull of Belmont day, and step up and run a big one.

blackthroatedwind · #17 06-07-2007, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem10011

Could be the Flashy Bull of Belmont day, and step up and run a big one.

Huh?

saucon17 · #18 06-07-2007, 08:08 PM

They are listed under Dove Houghton name because she was once an asst. trainer to Tony Dutrow. She is a good trainer in her own right.

golfer · #19 06-07-2007, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Even his dirt figs seem a bit light to me. Never had a BSF over 98.

ran 5 consecutive TG 2's last year. Only 3 starts so far at 4, two 5's and a 6 (turf). I heard Steve say he was going to try and get Dan Peitz on the show, perhaps he can shed some light.

GPK · #20 06-07-2007, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

ran 5 consecutive TG 2's last year. Only 3 starts so far at 4, two 5's and a 6 (turf). I heard Steve say he was going to try and get Dan Peitz on the show, perhaps he can shed some light.

see...you got me there Seth. My simple ass has ZERO clue of how to read those TG sheets.